A CNN Politics look at the state of play 8 months out from Election Day 2022….
The piece points to the primaries…
Who from the Democrats and Republicans gets to run for the general election….
This along with the general feeling that the majority is gonna come out for the Republicans….
So how likely are Republicans to win this fall? Historically, very likely. The party in the White House traditionally loses seats in the first midterm election of a new president’s term. In fact, the president’s party has lost an average of 30 House seats in midterm elections over the last 100 years, according to Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to win the chamber this year.
A reminder: A net gain of five seats is not the same thing as winning five seats. A party needs at least 218 seats to win control of the House. While Republicans are trying to flip seats this year, so are the Democrats – so any GOP wins will have to be offset by any losses they incur.
That said, losses are not a huge concern for Republicans right now. Given the historical trends working in their favor and the fact that President Joe Biden’s approval rating is 40% in the latest CNN average of national polls, the national environment seems to be working in their favor. And the uptick in retirement announcements by several longtime Democratic incumbents in recent months is a telling sign they weren’t looking forward to serving in the minority.
But it’s not all bad news for Democrats. The House map is not as favorable to Republicans as the majority party feared it could have been. The once-a-decade redistricting process is nearly complete (except for a handful of states), which has resulted in new congressional lines that Democrats think give them a shot at holding their majority.
Overall, the biggest takeaway from redistricting is that the number of competitive House seats has shrunk, which means that in most states, primaries – rather than general election contests – will be the main event….