That’s the view from Larry Sabato’s political shop…..
In the aftermath of the high-turnout 2020 election, many Republican-controlled state governments have passed legislation that Democrats believe will harm their party’s voter turnout.
— However, voting rules did not appear to have much impact on turnout and had no measurable impact on vote margins at the state level in the 2020 presidential
— Both voter turnout and voting decisions in 2020 were driven by the strong preferences held by the large majority of voters between the major party candidates.
The limited impact of voting procedure on 2020 turnout
Former President Trump and his political allies continue to push baseless allegations of widespread fraud in the 2020 presidential election more than a year after Joe Biden’s inauguration. Largely in response to those allegations, Republican state legislatures around the country have enacted dozens of laws intended to tighten identification requirements, limit access to absentee voting, reduce the time period for early in-person voting, and limit the use of drop boxes for absentee voting. Democrats have responded to these new laws by proposing legislation in Congress to override these laws but have failed to pass new voting rights laws due to unified Republican opposition and the unwillingness of 2 Democratic senators to modify the filibuster rule in that chamber.
Republicans in some states have gone even further with restrictions on the power of the people to make laws themselves after they had the utter audacity to march to the polls and vote to expand Medicaid and legalize marijuana.
Republicans are unhappy because people voted in record numbers in 2020.
The massive turnout was a crystal-clear sign of a remarkably vibrant democracy, which every American should celebrate. While most Americans were pleased at the high level of voter participation, Republicans were pissed. The surge in turnout caused the GOP to lose the White House and the Senate.
The GOP has good reason to worry about its future. The party has lost the popular vote in the last four presidential elections. The demographic tide of African, Hispanic and Asian American voters rises while the GOP is weighed down under the ballast of a demagogic leader who trades in dog-whistle racism. The members of the Greatest Generation and Baby Boomers who support Trump are giving way at the polls to Millennial and GenX voters who vote Democratic….
The Hill….,
They don’t have to work a lot, they only have to work a little.
As someone who actually knows Larry he, like so many pundits, have never worked at a polling station in their lives.
He can’t predict this until the election actually takes place. But if the absentee ballot application rejection rate in Texas is any indication. It’s working.
Larry IS an district ‘expert’ and isn’t the only one now saying the Republican effort’s on ‘redistricting’ probably won’t work to much….
Voter suppression is a who different manner….
But he makes a good point…..
If Democrats make a hard effort to turn oit the votes?
They could as the last time defeat even efforts to lock out chunks of votes…….