The Long Island US House member joins a crowded field looking for former NY Governor Cuomo’s job….
Current NY Governor Holchul is currently polling ahead of the field that includes Attorney General Tish James by double digits….
The list is all Democrats…
We’ll see who actually ends up running by November of next year….
One might think this will come down to who can carry the New York City vote into the primary next year…
His running will give House Democratic leader Pelosi another headache to worry about….
Representative Thomas Suozzi, a Long Island Democrat, intends to announce on Monday that he will enter the race for governor of New York, broadening the field of candidates challenging the incumbent, Kathy Hochul, according to five people who have spoken with the congressman and his team in recent days.
Mr. Suozzi, who has most recently focused on federal negotiations over raising a cap on state and local tax deductions, has positioned himself as a vocal centrist who is quick to lash what he casts as the excesses of his party’s left wing.
His decision to run for governor, which he is expected to announce at an 11 a.m. news conference, will intensify and complicate the battle for moderate voters in one of the nation’s marquee Democratic primary contests next year.
Mr. Suozzi, a former Nassau County executive, could cut into parts of the coalition Ms. Hochul is seeking to assemble on Long Island and in suburbs around the state. And in a crowded field, the race increasingly appears to be fluid and unpredictable.
Mr. Suozzi, a strong fund-raiser, nevertheless would face steep challenges in a statewide Democratic primary.
While early polling has limited value ahead of a primary slated for next June, he was in the single digits in a recent survey. Ms. Hochul, the state’s first female governor who has consistently led the field in early polls, has an overwhelming head start in fund-raising and endorsements.
Other candidates in the race also have the kind of history-making potential that Mr. Suozzi, a white man, does not — most notably Attorney General Letitia James, who could be the first Black female governor in the country should she win….
A deeper look at things from the Right from RRH Elections ...Here….
Note…
This will be Tom Suozzi’s second try for the Governorship….
He ran 15 years ago and lost to Eliot Spitzer, who like Cuomo….
Quit before his term was up…..
image…Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times
Another House Democrat bails on Re-Election. They are dropping like flies. Another Strong Hint that Democrats do not expect to hold the House come January 2023.
Two things about your point Daniel…
1…I think Suozzi had a strong chance of being re-elected unless his district was re-drawn significantly or he was going to have to share the area with another prominent Democrat, his area is pretty Democratic…
2…You may be right about the overall house and Dem’s don’t feel they have a good shot at holding the house in 2022…But November is 11 months away and things can change in that time…
He said Suozzi “bit the dust” – is that what you call running for higher statewide office?
Don’t forget Daniel is a cult member who is conditioned to believing what he has been told and then spews it back out.
Suozzi has been in the minority before, his district will still be majority Democrat and he certainly would have won re-election. The Democratic seats that have announced retirements are all deep blue seats as fat as I can tell, and the replacement will be a Democrat no matter what happens to final outcome for control. Why anyone would be anxious to have Kevin McCarthy as Speaker is beyond me.
Is the House in danger of flipping, of course it is. But there is still room for Democrats to grow in several states. For example, I just got a call from the guy running against Ken Calvert here in California (Calvert’s district is going from a plus seven Trump District to a plus seven Biden District) and the Democrat, a guy named Will Rollins has already out raised Calvert. I gave him $250, he has a powerful story.
So, these little breathless announcements of Daniel’s notwithstanding, I expect the House with a booming economy brought to you by a Democratic Majority to be very competitive.
bite the dust
And Remember NY looses a seat this next election due to the census…so Suozzi could see his district changing too much to want to defend…the Map in NY is not drawn yet.
I’m not sure but did the NY legislators wiggle out 1 or 2 more safe Dem districts?
This claim was made on here today:
“The Democratic seats that have announced retirements are all deep blue seats as fat as I can tell, and the replacement will be a Democrat no matter what happens to final outcome for control.”
The facts are otherwise though.
According to CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/29/politics/suozzi-retirement-2022-house/index.html
“Of the 18 Democratic open seats, fully one third are in districts where former President Donald Trump won or lost narrowly (5 points or less) in the 2020 election. And, that total doesn’t even include seats like Suozzi’s — where President Joe Biden won by 11 points in 2020 but where Hillary Clinton prevailed by only 6 points four years earlier.
Even in a neutral national environment, those seats would be very hard for Democrats to hold. In an environment like this one — the first midterm of a presidency with Biden’s approval numbers stuck in the low 40s — not only are seats that Trump carried in danger but also seats like Suozzi’s could be too. (Suozzi was on a February list of 47 Democrats that Republicans planned to make serious runs at next year.) “
I still think Dem’s have a better chance with keeping Schumer as the Senate Majority Leader…
Without 60 seats to break a filibuster, it would not be as important as House control for the opposition party
At the beginning of the summer, I would have said House control looked 50/50 and Democrats probably had 75% chance of keeping the Senate.
Now, I would say the Senate looks 50/50 and Republicans probably have a 75% chance of winning the House.
I’d give Democrats 1 in 3 odds of holding the House, and 60% at gaining in the Senate.
Probably a narrow GOP House majority(net gain of around 20 seats) and a D net gain of 2 seats(NC, PA, & WI, minus NV).
Way too early for “predictions” but I would say Republicans keep NC and Democrats keep NV.
Wisconsin Senate might go to Democrats (with Governor going the other way) but I think Pennsylvania Senate might now look better for Republicans with Trump’s boy out and the far left Lt. Governor favored to win the nomination for Democrats instead of Connor Lamb.
The other additional question marks will be Arizona, Georgia, and Ohio.
He, he, he
Trump IS helping Dem’s on the US Senate level…..
I think i read somewhere that Dem’s 2024 Senate chances are even MORE FAVORABLE…..
I wonder what Pelosi does?
Jefferies I would think will become the next Democratic House leader
I find it hard to see the Senate switching more than 1 or 2 seats net. Democrats have zero margin for error though to keep 50.
Pelosi will be nominated as U.S. Ambassador to Somewhere sometime after the 2022 California primary.
I’m thinking that Pelosi would retire
Keith can answer this
But if she wants the seat i assume it’s her’s and with THAT the leadership spot….
Ambassadorship?
She has grandkids in California…..
A. She’s not going to stay on as Minority Leader
B. She agreed two cycles ago she would step down after 2022.
I don’t think she has the votes to lead a Caucus.
Does McCarthy have the votes to lead the other one?
I think Pelosi DOES…..
I also think McCarthy does also….
Different small factions flex
But they would be unable by themselves to push either leader from their leadership spots
Pelosi most certainly did not have the votes after 2018 until she agreed to step down after 4 years.
True THAT CG…….
Dem’s NEED both…..
But I and most people do not share Keith’s optimism for Dem’s House chances in 2023/2024….
Notable because you insisted in 2010, 2014, etc, that Democrats had nothing to worry about and would easily have good House results.
I think professional pundits would say that I am being too generous to Democrats by giving them a 25% of keeping the House. It probably is lower than that, but I have to keep open a possibility of Trump calling for a boycott of the polls or something.
If i did for 2010?
I fucked up……
People should perhaps start to realize that there is a potential for a Republican House Majority to make Donald Trump the Speaker of the House at the beginning of 2023.
That would put him in the middle of everything via the media and at the same time give him (and the party) an out as to why he no longer would need to run an uphill and potentially embarrassing race for President (“As Speaker, I have more power than any President…”) Of course, he wouldn’t actually be doing the job, just holding the title.
He wouldn’t ever have to face the voters in any capacity. Though the party would still have to carry him going in to 2024…. but not as the Presidential nominee…
Potential weird times ahead.
The faces he will make behind Biden during the SOTU address will be a sight to behold.
Pelosi ripped his SOTU speech up. What will Trump physically do with Biden’s speech?
Be a knucklehead?
Trump as the Speaker would be a disaster……
I don’t Take this seriously..
You would be essentially BE shutting down the American CONGRESSIONAL legislative process ….
Even your fellow Republicans aren’t THAT stupid CG
They may not have a choice. They are still hostages.
And for whatever Beltway Disaster unfolds, at least it could keep him off the top of the ticket.
I would assume House Republicans would insist upona condition that if they make him Speaker, he would not run for President.
Of course, he will tell them that he will run if they don’t.
So, what does less damage from their perspective?
I will make a prediction
DONALD J TRUMP WILL NEVER BE SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE…….
For a list of reasons
The first being as i just said he would fuck up the entire US Congress…..
Just like he did the Presidency….
The joke proposal would fall flat on its face if Trump actually said he’d take the spot
This is just out and out bat shit crazy
People shouldn’t seriously entertain it
Oh please. Everyone thought the same thing about him and the Presidency.
The “idea” may be crazy but you aren’t understanding the concept. It might very well happen.
Just remember, that as of today, if polls are to be believed, Trump would be elected President again.
Theoretically, this may be the only thing that prevents that.
I don’t buy that at all….
Biden beat his tail off….
He’d do again if given the chance….
“The Donald” IS his own worst political enemy….
And?
The idea IS crazy….
Republicans maybe brain washed…
But the lawmakers of ur party would come back to reality on this…
‘It ain’t gonna happen’….
People already think the Congress is f’ed up.
They have thought that way for generations now. There used to be more respect for the institute of President. Trump (and some others before him) diminished that.
The non-political junkie is probably not going to lose any sleep over Trump possibly being Speaker. Now, if he, two heartbeats away, tries to engineer a coup, that is a different story. He should have been convicted and prevented from holding office.
Republicans have themselves to blame. If he decides he wants to be Speaker and holds Republicans over a barrel as a condition of their winning a majority, he can probably do it.
Is Kevin McCarthy going to stop it?… Please.
They ARE correct….
The American Congress sometimes IS a embrassmnet…
But?
It IS what we have and in the end?
It gets the job done for 3330+ Million people….
I’ll quote you…..
“The non-political junkie is probably not going to lose any sleep over Trump possibly being Speaker. Now, if he, two heartbeats away, tries to engineer a coup, that is a different story. He should have been convicted and prevented from holding office.”….
Excellent….
Yes…
And ur right….
‘THAT IS a different story”….
YES….
Next September DJT might be sucking wind entangled in legal shit and with other GOPer’s picking on his political bones……
We’ll have to see….
Won’t we?
I still think he flames out…..
I had some thinking about the Suozzi for Governor move during my morning walk….
I think his chances depend on incoming NYC Mayor Adams….
Adams asked Suozzi to be one of his Deputy Mayor’s , a no win for the House Rep.
But?
If Adams was to endorse Suozzi ?
Hmmmmm?
That would give Suozzi some black votes which would split Tish James hold on the minority vote….
Two women running would probably give the LI House Rep. a good amount of the male vote….
His probable would then be upstate NY….
But I hate to go there but being a male?
Could help him there…
SOOOOO?
The race for NY Governor IS wide open….
And Hochul is gonna have to work to keep her job and not rest on early polling king strongly in her favor….
Next fall, Democrats will be running on a message of “vote for us, to stop Trump from becoming Speaker.”
And james might insist. “nothing to see there. Ignore it.”
What do you care? You claim voting Democrat in 202o was a huge mistake that you’ll never repeat again. Besides, wasn’t Trump going to lose interest in politics while the Republican Party moved on?
So Mr. Rarely Wrong, when is that going to happen now? After he is Speaker of the House and the literal face of the GOP?
I said voting for Biden is something I would not do again. I don’t believe I said it was a “mistake” or said I would never theoretically vote for a Democrat or phrased anything here about me “caring.”
I am just laying out a scenario.
To be clear though I do not think Trump is worthy of holding any office anywhere in America or any other country.
It might also be true though that above all else, I do not want him to be the 2024 Republican Presidential nominee.
I would for sure support Joe Manchin for President over a Trumpist.
Again?
Biden’s number’s seem have bottomed out and are starting to creep up ever so slightly
I’ll do a post on this later