This from FiveThirtyEight, which points to what everyone has said….
Biden losing Independents, but adds Hispanics on Immigration ….
And even Blacks….
Independents are also especially dissatisfied with how Biden is handling the economy. Granted, this week The Economist/YouGov found only 41 percent of Americans approved of Biden’s handling of jobs and the economy, while a brand-new Politico/Morning Consult survey found just 41 percent of registered voters approved of his handling of the economy. But this is a drop from where his numbers stood on these issues in early June, when The Economist/YouGov polling had him 8 percentage points higher and Politico/Morning Consult polling had him 6 points higher. Yet independents have been even more displeased with Biden’s handling of the economy, as their approval on that issue fell from the low 40s in June to around 30 percent more recently.
Garnering support from independents is important because it helps a president achieve overall popularity, but support from the base is vital too — and it’s another spot where Biden is in trouble. While his job approval rating among Democrats remains very high, it has dipped from 90 percent in the early summer to the low 80s now, with signs of deteriorating support among Black and Hispanic Americans,
Recent polling suggests that Hispanic approval of Biden’s handling of the pandemic and the economy has fallen sharply. The latest poll from The Economist/YouGov found just 45 percent of Hispanics approved of Biden’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 65 percent in early June. And Politico/Morning Consult’s new survey found Hispanic approval of Biden’s handling of the economy has dropped to 42 percent, compared with 60 percent back in June. Hispanics are also frustrated with how Biden has dealt with immigration — long one of Biden’s weakest issues in the public’s eyes— and although it isn’t the most important issue for Hispanic voters, it is often a highly salient one. Earlier this month, Quinnipiac University foundthat only 23 percent of Hispanic Americans approved of Biden’s work on immigration, down from 49 percent in late May. Even if that might be on the low end for Biden, the new Politico/Morning Consult survey also found him performing more poorly on the issue among Hispanic voters, as just 40 percent approved, compared with 51 percent in June.
Biden has lost ground among almost every single demographic group over the past few months, but independents and Hispanics stick out as two key groups where Biden’s standing has especially faltered. For Democrats looking ahead to the 2022 midterms, Biden’s overall approval rating is concerning enough, but if Biden is struggling to win independents and Hispanics, that could snuff out any hope Democrats have of holding either chamber of Congress. After all, independents backed Democrats in the 2018 midterms and Biden last November, and even though Republicans made gains with Hispanics in places like Texas’s Rio Grande Valley, Hispanics still largely backed Biden and helped him win in key swing states, like Arizona. But if Republicans can capitalize on Biden’s weakness among these groups, that could be their ticket back to controlling Congress next year.