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Open Thread for Oct. 21, 2021…..More on Biden’s polling drop….

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This from FiveThirtyEight,  which points to what everyone has said….

Biden losing Independents, but adds Hispanics on Immigration ….

And even Blacks….

Independents are also especially dissatisfied with how Biden is handling the economy. Granted, this week The Economist/YouGov found only 41 percent of Americans approved of Biden’s handling of jobs and the economy, while a brand-new Politico/Morning Consult survey found just 41 percent of registered voters approved of his handling of the economy. But this is a drop from where his numbers stood on these issues in early June, when The Economist/YouGov polling had him 8 percentage points higher and Politico/Morning Consult polling had him 6 points higher. Yet independents have been even more displeased with Biden’s handling of the economy, as their approval on that issue fell from the low 40s in June to around 30 percent more recently.

Garnering support from independents is important because it helps a president achieve overall popularity, but support from the base is vital too — and it’s another spot where Biden is in trouble. While his job approval rating among Democrats remains very high, it has dipped from 90 percent in the early summer to the low 80s now, with signs of deteriorating support among Black and Hispanic Americans,

…

Recent polling suggests that Hispanic approval of Biden’s handling of the pandemic and the economy has fallen sharply. The latest poll from The Economist/YouGov found just 45 percent of Hispanics approved of Biden’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 65 percent in early June. And Politico/Morning Consult’s new survey found Hispanic approval of Biden’s handling of the economy has dropped to 42 percent, compared with 60 percent back in June. Hispanics are also frustrated with how Biden has dealt with immigration — long one of Biden’s weakest issues in the public’s eyes— and although it isn’t the most important issue for Hispanic voters, it is often a highly salient one. Earlier this month, Quinnipiac University foundthat only 23 percent of Hispanic Americans approved of Biden’s work on immigration, down from 49 percent in late May. Even if that might be on the low end for Biden, the new Politico/Morning Consult survey also found him performing more poorly on the issue among Hispanic voters, as just 40 percent approved, compared with 51 percent in June.

Biden has lost ground among almost every single demographic group over the past few months, but independents and Hispanics stick out as two key groups where Biden’s standing has especially faltered. For Democrats looking ahead to the 2022 midterms, Biden’s overall approval rating is concerning enough, but if Biden is struggling to win independents and Hispanics, that could snuff out any hope Democrats have of holding either chamber of Congress. After all, independents backed Democrats in the 2018 midterms and Biden last November, and even though Republicans made gains with Hispanics in places like Texas’s Rio Grande Valley, Hispanics still largely backed Biden and helped him win in key swing states, like Arizona. But if Republicans can capitalize on Biden’s weakness among these groups, that could be their ticket back to controlling Congress next year.

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    • Thank You Brandon!!
      The Dow is over 36,000. Unemployment has dropped from 6.3% in January to 4.8% today. Over 5 million jobs have been added, a record. And, over 220 million vaccines in 10 months – except for James.

  2. Texas Lt Gov Dan Patrick has honored his commitment to pay $25,000 in reward for demonstrating voting fraud has paid the reward to a Pennsylvania progressive who found that a Republican voted twice in the 2020 election.

  3. This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

    Two years ago I had the chance to talk to Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), which I later summarized:

    When I asked Schiff if he was surprised by President Trump’s conduct since taking office, he laughed. Then he pointed out that while nothing about Trump was normal, Schiff said he felt the president’s behavior was pretty much in line with how he campaigned. Specific things Trump did on any given day might be shocking, but none of it should really surprise anyone who paid attention to the campaign.

    So I asked Schiff if anything about the Trump years had surprised him.

    Without hesitation, Schiff said the most bewildering thing has been the reaction of his Republican colleagues. He was most surprised at their unwillingness to call out even Trump’s worst behavior. He said he was completely caught off guard by their unwillingness to protect the basic institutions of our democracy.

    I’ve thought about that a lot in the years since — and especially on January 6 when angry Trump supporters stormed the Capitol to stop the certification of the electoral vote in the 2020 presidential election. Most Republicans today act as if it never happened.

    Last night, I got the chance to follow up with Schiff with what he called a “very good and very disturbing” question: If Republicans win control of the House, would they certify the results of a 2024 presidential election won by a Democrat?

    Schiff’s answer was blunt: “If Kevin McCarthy had been Speaker on January 6, he would not have certified the election… they very well may have succeeded in overturning the election. Would they do so in the future? I have to say, they probably would… they probably would.”

    He added: “Kevin McCarthy will do whatever Donald Trump wants him to do.”

    I can’t think of a better way to explain the precariousness of our democracy at this moment.

  6. Florida’s top public health official Republican Dr.Joseph Ladapo an appointee of vicious virus spreading Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis ,showing a total lack of common decency ,refused the request of State Sen. Tina Polsky ,who has Stage 1 breast cancer , to put on a mask in her office.

    DeSantis and this clown, are the face of the Republican Party nowadays.

    Their degree of viciousness knows no bounds.

    • Friday, October 22
      Race/Topic Poll Results Spread
      President Biden Job Approval Gallup Approve 42, Disapprove 52 Disapprove +10
      President Biden Job Approval Trafalgar Group (R) Approve 39, Disapprove 58 Disapprove +19
      President Biden Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 42, Disapprove 57 Disapprove +15

      RCP…

      (Joe Biden a 40% or so President less than a year in office….)

  10. With the tight polls in VA coupled with the GOP’s general tendency to do some % better than their poll numbers/their voters’ unwillingness to answer polls, plus the outsize role education is playing in the race(and the economy is a close second), I’m ready to slide that race ever so slightly towards the Republican leaning side of a Tossup.

    Ciattrelli in NJ and Sliwa in NY will lose their races by similarly big margins.

    • McAuliffe WAS way ahead when the early voting started….

      RCP has Youngkin up by 0.9 in their average…..

      I agree with ya SE on Jersey and NYC races

      • Michelle Wu is way ahead (60+% to 30+%) of her more-conservative fellow Boston City Councillor Anissa Essaibi-George in the race to succeed former Mayor Marty Walsh (now Sec. of Labor0 and Acting Mayor Kim Janey (who didn’t make the top 2 in September’s preliminary election).

      • Factoring different variables in, I think the VA race lands somewhere between a 1.5% McAuliffe win and a 3.5% Youngkin win. The mid point on that(and IMO the likeliest result) is Youngkin by 1%.

        Early votes always favor Democrats. Youngkin can easily make it up on Election Day, which is usually an iconoclastically red skewing vote dump.

          • And I also agree early voting tends to be Democratic

            And sometimes it IS enough
            Sometimes not as u say

            • Nate Cohen

              More than a million people have voted early so far in Virginia.
              As of yesterday, those voters appeared to back Biden by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, based on a combination of voter file data from L2 and about 4k interviews of Virginia voters from earlier cycles…..

              Cohen goes on to say we have to see the resukts on election day

        • The media is excited in the Virginia race which have gladly turned into a REAL horse race….

          Forgetting all the knocking the polls we had them reporting on back on November, eh?

    • It’s worthy remembering that the polls for VA governor in 2017 were nearly tied and Northam won by 9 points.
      So Republicans don’t always outperform the polls there. The CA recall last month also was an instance where the Democrat did much better than polls indicated.

      Polling is overall in inexact science. Sometimes it’s fairly right. Other times way off.

      • Scott is right of course. From my history with Virginia politics, you know working precincts there and actually having friends who are active in politics, the new longer voting days/hours will greatly benefit Democrats (especially the occasional voter) and even though the Trump candidate has been trying to encourage his folks to vote early it hasn’t happened yet.

        As of today, and the polls will have to stay open longer because of a huge turnout, over 40% of the whole 2017 turnout will have already voted. I got two messages from friends in Alexandria and Arlington (huge Democratic areas) that after waiting in line for over an hour that they gave up and will return mid-day Election Day (they will). They said the line of voters was upbeat and the Democratic volunteers (no Republicans in sight) were very positive about a win on Tuesday. If Northern Virginia turns out, Terry wins.

        I would not be surprised if the count goes over 45% of the 2017 turnout from what I am hearing and seeing on FB. Nate Silver says that the voter profile as of Thursday of all who have already voted was 2 to 1 in favor of Biden. I can’t see many of those folks switching to Trumpkin can you?

        • Thanks Keith…

          If we could get reports fro the next two days I’d roll them into daily posts…..

          I will do that for this report….

  11. Slime all Ted Cruz defends people who made death threats against school board members, and defends their use of the nazi salute. Fascist filth.

    • The Republican Party 2021

      And the fact that a near, if not today outright majority of the “Anerican people,”support this collection of liars, cheats ,thieves and slimeballs says a lot about the state of this country today.

      And why my cynicism grows by the day.

  14. Today is the anniversary of the start of the Protestant Reformation with Martin Luther’s postings.

      • Well, clearly Catholicism needed reform at the time with the Inquisition and the selling of indulgences.

        With that said, I don’t see much good coming out of Protestant congregations today. At least today’s Catholicism cares about helping the poor and it shows concern for refugees and the environment.

        I do not consider Unitarian Universalism to be a form of Christianity, although it clearly was 60 years ago.

        • Biden and the Pope…

          President Biden became emotional Sunday when discussing his relationship with Pope Francis, days after the two met at the Vatican.

          “Pope Francis has become a, I don’t want to exaggerate, has become someone who has provided great solace for my family when my son died,” Biden said at a press conference in Rome when asked what it meant for the pope to call him a good Catholic during their meeting….

          More…

              • A joke I hope, but he does say crazy things.

                A little more background on Virginia:

                In the Washington Post poll, those who have had at least one shot of a coronavirus vaccine, a significant majority of likely voters, support McAuliffe by 14 points. Those who have not received even one vaccine dose back Youngkin by 77 points.

                This gap was observed in CA recall election. Very high correlation between vote for Biden, vaccination rate, and vote “no” to recall Newsom.

                It also correlates to educational levels. Stupid people vote Republican and aren’t vaccinated.

    • More Biden cleaning up after Trump….

      President Biden on Monday apologized for the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate accord, saying doing so set the world back in the fight against climate change.

      “I guess I shouldn’t apologize, but I do apologize for the fact the United States in the last administration pulled out of the Paris accords and put us sort of behind the eight ball a little bit,” Biden said during a session on “action and solidarity” at the United Nations climate conference in Glasgow….

      More…

  16. I hope Keith, James, and Scott are right about the VA race. If I lived up in Abingdon, I’d likely vote McAuliffe(If not him, then third partier Princess Blanding–There were far better options the Democrats passed on than Mr. Electability, though LG Fairfax would have been an even bigger flop). Based on what is actually available to me now, though, I stick by my call of Youngkin by 1%, or a 49-48 margin. The EDay vote should be huge, surpassing 2017 numbers when Democrats were more juiced with Trump in the White House. Now, it’s the Republicans who are juiced to a slightly greater degree than we are.

    To discredit myself a little bit, though, I had thought Gillespie would eke it out last time. But then I saw him on FNC Primetime while at Burger King a lot around that time, which made him seem a more potent candidate than he turned out to be. That final margin blew my mind.

  18. I am pleased to report that I got an email from Mark Halperin asking me if I could participate in his Focus Group again. Apparently, they thought I performed well last time. I expect to be filmed next Thursday. They know about my cancer and I told them that I would wear a dew rag to hide my surgical scarring. They were okay with that.

  19. Morning on rough day for Democrats mostly across the country……

    Republican can smile and pat themselves on the back

    I know some here will marry yesterday to Trump

    I think not so much

    More to Democrats being Democrats and fucking things up THEMSELVES…..

    And DSD?

    Ur Right

    With no Trump and Biden sagging?

    Turn out dropped

    In my county?

    The GOPer’s rolled over just about every Democrat….

    Gonna be a rough trip to the Midterms for Democrats

  20. Let’s see, got VA almost on the nose in the top ticket affair. Almost totally whiffed NJ, though Murphy should still eke it out. Undershot Adams’ final performance in NYC, and vastly underestimated Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown’s write in campaign.

    • When the remaining votes are counted Murphy will likely have a 3-4 point margin of victory. Much closer than expected. Youngkin will win by 2-3 points.

      It should be noted that while NJ votes reliably blue in federal races they have had GOP governors for 24 of the last 40 years. The last Democratic governor to win reelection there was in the 1970’s. As for VA they seem to like having new faces every 4 years with their one term limit. Also both states are more suburban than most as neither have a really big urban center. The most urban parts of both VA and NJ are really suburbs of neighboring states/districts.

      I’m not discounting the headwinds of national issues that affected this race and made it a tough night for Team Blue, just pointing out some eccentricities of each of these states.

      • Thanks Scott…..

        I totally agree on Jersey where everyone gets excited , they Dem’s pull things out….

        Biden nationally is a small factor , but I think the ECONOMY IS the main issue along with Dem infighting….

      • Murphy’s win makes him the first Democratic Governor to be elected from the President’s party since 1985, a pretty good accomplishment given the number of haters who headed to the polls yesterday, and his margin will grow.

        This type of mini-mid year voter blowback has occurred at least three times in my lifetime and the panic, especially in the House, today must be spreading. They’re right to be scared, they need to pass both infrastructure bills, message their accomplishment, and stop the infighting (they really are in a bubble and many of them have never negotiated any piece of legislation let alone something of this magnitude).

        Who needs the Republicans in opposition when we have two Senators who keep moving goal posts, but it didn’t help when Bernie decided at the eleventh hour he was opposed to a tax deduction that had been discussed for months. They’re doing Mitch’s work. But so are some of the more self righteous House Members who leak what they had for lunch. Please negotiate in private, the constant mixed message interviews only make us look stupid and the Biden Administration is anything but stupid.

        Obama recovered from a terrible ACA passage and roll out, Joe and my party will recover from this. They have to, just look at what is waiting in the wings.

        I also agree with Zreebs, I don’t know anyone who considers Newark a suburb of New York. It falls inside the metro area, but those folks don’t identify with New York on any level.

        • Keith?

          It IS…

          And I agree Biden DOES have time to recover for himself….

          He’s gonna have to get his fellow party members to stop fighting among each other first and then SELL his Recovery package HARD…

          You hit a Homerun on the lawmakers getting out of the media to make the deal!

          It can be done…

        • I would consider Jersey City, Hoboken and Union City to be urban bedroom communities of New York, but few people who live in Newark acrually spends much time in New York, and even fewer who live in Paterson or Passaic ever go to New York.

          • OK I stand corrected on NJ and the status of certain cities there as suburbs of NYC.

            My point remains that both NJ and VA have more suburban populations overall than many other blue or purple states.

            • How many people work in Newark?

              What is the total working population for the New York Newark Jersey City metropolitan area *?
              9.69M employees

              From 2018 to 2019, employment in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA declined at a rate of −2.49%, from 9.93M employees to 9.69M employees.

              New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | Data USAhttps://datausa.io › profile › geo › new-york-newark-jer…

          • I agree on the question by distance Z….

            But?

            If you drive thru the Holland tunnel to Newark?

            It’s closer than going to parts of Queens from Manhattan….

            Or?

            Staten Island over the bridge to Newark?

              • I lived in northern NJ, but never in the Philly suburbs. Camden and Trenton are just outside Philly. I assume they do relate to Philly, but I don’t know for sure. I doubt they consider themselves East Philly.

                If you want to watch a Devils or Seton Hall game, you go into Newark.

    • No way, for a hundred reasons.

      A second referendum (to rejoin the EU) is certainly not impossible, but highly unlikely for a number of reasons:
      e.g. (1) does a vote mean anything if it’s repeated votes to cancel its results? (2) the EU is likely to take just as hard a bargaining position on re-entry as it did on post-Brexit and (3) France, Germany, Italy, Holland and Spain are happier moving more quickly towards their version without British objections (driven by British public opinion) and without rivalry from another big, powerful country and (4) Poland’s and Hungary’s authoritarians would be chary of re-admitting a very large democratic opponent.

      • I would like to accept nyour explanation DSD;however this whole subject is simply too complex to accept.

        • Since you seem intent on turning this site into some weird farce for your inane comments about everything being “complex” ( while being unable to articulate the so called “complexity”) ?

          Just doing my part to perpetuate the silliness.

          • No I LIKE the answer…..

            And yea….

            Things ARE complex….

            We humans and the media tend to want then to be simple and easy to explain and we try to bend stuff to that….

            But as DSD points out also ….

            In many, not ALL , cases?

            THAT IS the situation….

            • Isn’t the media mostly humans? This discussion is too complex for me. I am unable to bend stuff.

              I thought DSD was talking about the feasibility of Britain rejoining the EU, but James “pointed out” that his point was more general than I had assumed. It is so considerate when James explains what other posters are saying. I know I cherish it when James explains to others here what we really are trying to say. I think we would all agree that James can explain things in ways that few of us can.

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