It’s close….
Cook Political Report: “Private polling from both parties, in addition to scant public polling, puts both races as a coin toss within the margin of error. It’s impossible to know how much the president’s latest temper tantrum will impact the Election Day turnout Republicans badly need. Still, GOP sources in the state certainly don’t think it will help. Early voting topped 3 million votes — already making this the highest turnout Georgia runoff ever. Democrats are encouraged by that strong turnout, which shows the numbers outpacing even Election Day totals in key demographics, particularly among Black voters and younger voters…”
“The total early vote was 23 percent lower than the same period in the general election, and one GOP source predicts that if the day of vote sees that same drop, it’s not good for them.”
Also interesting: NBC News reports that there were also 112,838 new voters who didn’t vote on November 3, and of those, 30% are under 30 and 40% are Black…
Note…
Democrat’s Warnock and Ossoff lead by a small margin’s in the final Real Clear Politics averages….
jamesb says
RRH Elections…
GA-Sen-L, GA-Sen-P: Two polls are out of the runoffs from friends of the site. Our friends at JMC Analytics have a great poll for Democrats, with Ossoff (D) leading Perdue (R) 50-43 and Warnock (D) leading Loeffler (R) 53-44. Open Model Project, a new outfit affiliated with our user MarylandMaps, has both Perdue and Loeffler leading their respective rivals 50-46.
jamesb says
What to Expect as Georgia Counts Votes
Associated Press: “Just like in November, it’s very possible Americans will go to bed without knowing who won. … In a close contest, look for the Republican candidate to jump out to an early lead. That due to two factors: First, Republican areas of the state usually report their results first. Second, Republican voters have been more likely to vote in person, either on Election Day or during the early voting period. Many counties release those in-person results first.”
“Meanwhile, heavily Democratic counties, including Fulton, DeKalb and Chatham counties, historically take longer to count votes. Democratic candidates could also make late surges because of late-counted mail ballots.”
jamesb says
My final guess on the Ga results…
Warnock win…
Ossoff iffy….
jamesb says
Anyone else up for a guess?
CG says
I am pretty sure the same party will win both by almost identical margins.
Tossup (D) for both right now. More likelihood that the Dems win by larger than expected. Trump tonight is probably going to do tremendous arson at the scene.
I am also going to do my blog post sometime tonight.
jamesb says
He, he, he
The Big Guy IS trying to burn his parties political house down…
THAT IS TRUE it seems…
jamesb says
Wouldn’t mind featuring a part of it here..
jamesb says
Nate Silver no clear prediction but feel’s ‘lean’ Democratic….
Oh, and ur probably right CG…
If they vote for Warnock they should also check of Ossoff….
jamesb says
Note….
IF BOTH Democrats win tomorrow ?
Georgia should be offically marked as Purple…
And look for a STRONG Kemp vs Stacey Abrams rematch in 2022….
CG says
Kemp can win a primary?
jamesb says
A year from now ?
Maybe?
CG says
As scary as it may be, anyone who truly loathes Trump should begin watching CSPAN momentarily for the final scheduled MAGA rally of the Trump Administration.
Revel in every word and every syllable of lunacy. We are not likely to see this, to such a staged extent, ever again.
He is a desperate man and some freaky stuff is going to go down during this speech. The people at the speech will probably vote tomorrow, but many watching at home will not because of their loyalty to Trump and their belief that it’s all “rigged.” I am going to write on my blog later that he could demand Kelly Loeffler put on a dog collar and kneel at his feet while he speaks, and she would do it.
50 Shades a Fading Red State.
CG says
Two people will win tomorrow in Georgia, or once we finally know the results, likely from the same party. Frankly, all of them deserve to lose These runoffs are a symbol for the horribleness of politics right now.
Perdue and Loeffler deserve to lose for their cynical and dishonest fealty to Trump.
Warnock deserves to lose because not long ago he expressed political views well out of the mainstream and due to the fact that he very recently (this year) went through a messy divorce where his wife alleges physical abuse. Another candidate at another time would have had to answer a whole lot more to answer for. Warnock is largely able to shrug it off and pivot.
Ossoff deserves to lose because he has developed a shameless Trumpian quality of distortion and exaggeration for his own benefit. He insists that Loeffler (whom is not even his opponent) is “campaigning with a Klansman.” No, she is not. She and her campaign has been horrible, but she is not “campaigning with a Klansman.”
CG says
Music so far from the Trump rally have included “Bohemian Rhapsody” for some reason. (The lyrics make it very odd for a rally.)
Now, they are doing Phil Collins “In The Air Tonight” which is about someone standing by and watching another person drown. Perhaps that is fitting for what Trump has done to the GOP. It might have also worked at a Ted Kennedy rally.
CG says
Now, it’s Laura Branigan’s “Gloria.”
I think Donald is the one headed for a Breakdown.
CG says
After this rally is over and after I write about Georgia, I am going to cleanse my political soul by watching the YouTube videos of Spiro Agnew and Richard Nixon at the 1972 GOP Convention.
Next up, is “Fortunate Son” as Marine One appears overhead.
Whomever is picking this music has a wicked anti-Trump secret.
CG says
Cue “Eve of Destruction”
Democratic Socialist Dave says
They say they’ve got your number…
All the voices in his head …
CG says
“We are the Champions” followed by “Macho Man.”
What is he trying to tell us?
CG says
Trump’s kids and Mark Meadows are yucking it up by the helicopter right in the camera view as Trump speaks.
CG says
Trump just subtly threatened Mike Pence about Wednesday.
Democratic Socialist Dave says
As a lifelong socialist with family roots in the Labour Party, I was appalled when Tony Blair’s Third Way New Labour replaced The Red Flag (“The People’s Flag is deepest red; it’s shrouded oft our martyred dead? And ere their limbs grew stiff and cold,/their hearts’ blood dyed its every fold” ,,, “With heads uncovered swear we all/ to bear it onward til we fall. / It witnessed many a deed and vow; we shall not change its colour now !”) with that triumphalist “We Are the Champions; we are the champions…” far more fitting for triumphalist Trump’s Army.
CG says
Trump attacking Kemp and Raffensperger.
CG says
Trump spent three minutes attacking the Supreme Court and now five minutes later, he is praising himself for the Supreme Court.
bdog says
CG…thats what we get when we have a Borderline Personality Disorder for a President…
jamesb says
Home Run Bdog‼️
CG says
There’s nothing “borderline” about Trump. Full blown sociopath.
jamesb says
Featured as the President of the United States of America for ANOTHER TWO WEEKS!
jamesb says
Fox News Link….
CG says
It is interesting that two southern Senators, Rick Scott, and Kelly Loeffler both hail from Bloomington, Illinois.
Right next to Bloomington is Normal, which we are far from these days.
CG says
Trump, after having Loeffler speak, now brought up Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Q-Anon) to speak.
CG says
Also in the audience, Trump gives a shout out to Lindsey Graham, who is greeted with a mixed reaction, and Mike Lee who Trump says “I am mad at today.”
CG says
Trump basically said his biker supporters are superior to the Secret Service in keeping him safe.
Is he going to let the Protection go?
CG says
Trump now attacking Fox News
jamesb says
Trump may go oversea’s on Jan 20….
Escape to Russia?
CG says
Scotland
jamesb says
On the way to Russia?
Logistics ?
I believe Biden is actually sworn in twice….
Once at 12:01AM Jan 20th in private….
And 12 hours later in public….
Going to Scotland ON Jan 20th would be interesting….
Leaving in the morning means 3 hours into the flight the B-747 changes call signs when Biden is sworn in public….From Air Force One to the Air Force ‘SAM’ Number on the tail….
Landing in Scotland Trump would be a civilian….
The Air Force B-747 or B-757 should be refuelled and turn around and head back to Wash DC with the that Special Air Missions call sign…..
The protective detail staying with Trump would be much smaller…
There should be no American limo’s and other support vehicles….
The Nuclear codes ‘Football’ would have either not made the trip or been deactivated…
And?
Trump’s subsequent air transportation would be his own B-757 or a private jet….
CG says
No, Biden will not be sworn in at midnight in private.
CG says
I’d bet 100 bucks Biden will be sound asleep at midnight.
CG says
If the ceremony is as normal, there will be about 15 mins when Trump is President and Harris is Vice President.
Democratic Socialist Dave says
Futile and of none effect to be sworn in at 12:01 a.m.. because (unlike the original March 4th date) the 20th Amendment reads:
Twentieth Amendment
Section 1
The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin.
CG says
If anyone will be President at Midnight 1/20, it might be Pence.
but Trump has said he will be very mad at Pence if he doesn’t do the right thing on Wed.
jamesb says
You might be right CG…..
The Big Guy HAS TO be thinking of a lot ditch pardon move from himself or Pence…
My scenario still stands though if he books to Scotland…
jamesb says
Ok….
I must have read somewhere and got AM and PM mixed up….
My Bad!
jamesb says
President Trump used a campaign rally on the eve of two critical Senate runoffs in Georgia to once again vent his debunked grievances about the outcome of November’s presidential election, as he continued his assault on the peaceful transfer of power.
In an appearance that was supposed to bolster the fortunes of the two Republican candidates — Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler — Mr. Trump instead turned the rally into a rambling lecture filled with conspiracy theories, rumors, unproven assertions and personal attacks on Democrats, the news media and Georgia’s Republican officials.
“There’s no way we lost Georgia,” Mr. Trump said just after taking the stage. “I’ve had two elections. I’ve won both of them. It’s amazing.”…
More…
jamesb says
Jim Acosta
@Acosta
GA election official Gabriel Sterling methodically debunking Trump’s conspiracy theories at news conference at this hour. Sterling, a Republican, sounds exasperated: “This is all easily, provably false. And yet the president persists.”
(This is about two REPUBLICANS…One the American President)
CG says
be careful with medication!
CG says
He can’t get over the fact that he was ahead on Election Night and then the lead went away. He might be in Georgia but it’s a good thing he was never an Atlanta Falcons fan.
CG says
“The people in your State Legislature agree with what I am saying, but more so.”
CG says
Crowd now chanting “Lock Her Up” for Hillary. This is like the last ever Grateful Dead show. They had to do it.
Democratic Socialist Dave says
“Lock her up ! Lock her up !”
Democratic Socialist Dave says
Attacking Wisconsin, where the Republican-majority state Supreme Court turned away Trump’s appeals.
CG says
I am relieved to not be the only person having to force myself to listen to this.
CG says
He’s now on a ten minute rant about the voting machines in Georgia being rigged. Yeah, that will fire people up to vote tomorrow.
CG says
Of course he is now on to how badly he beat Biden in the Gallup Most Admired Poll.
CG says
Biden finishing behind Obama in that poll proves he could not have gotten 80 million votes…
CG says
He said the machines tomorrow will also be rigged.
CG says
To be fair, he is ranting about the other states he lost too.
CG says
If Trump is truly playing golf (perhaps night golf) in Scotland when his term officially ends, it puts Biden in a somewhat awkward position in regards to if Trump wants to be flown back or not.
Of course historically “Air Force One” is used to fly the old President home (or on vacation in Obama’s case.)
At the minimum, Biden would have to allow for the Trump staff to be able to come home.
jamesb says
Of course the extra security and support staff will come back home ….
Of course the staff going anywhere with Trump on Jan. 20th would be reduced….
Trump has his own B-757….
There is NO FUCKING way Biden & Co are gonna have the Air Force Jet sitting around for civilian Trump to play Golf for any amount of time in Scotland …..
The media would roast Biden alive….
CG says
Biden might let that one go for a bit. According to the story, it would not be the big plane, but any plane a sitting President is on, is technically “Air Force One.”
I have tremendous respect for the professionalism and dedication of the Secret Service. That will continue for those who guard Trump, but as a former President, let’s just say he is no longer going to be having their “A team.”
He can always do what Nixon eventually did and give up the taxpayer funded protection for a private security team. The Proud Boys can protect his Sorry Ass.
jamesb says
NOT the big plane would be the B-757 which is same type Trump owns…
His after the Office Detail would stay with him if he wants …
But AGAIN?
The extra stuff would be going back after he gets off the plane….
I wouldn’t even give him one agent…
jamesb says
Trump ain’t going to Scotland Jan. 20…
Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister of Scotland, said President Trump will not be allowed to visit the country to play golf during Joe Biden’s inauguration, as reports indicated he was planning, the Independent reports….
Politicalwire…
CG says
Before the Lights Go Out Tomorrow or the Devil Goes Down trying to find an election to steal, here are the thoughts on my Mind (and predictions) regarding Georgia.
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2021/01/georgia-us-senate-runoffs.html
My Name Is Jack says
Tossup(R)
Cause there ain’t no cracker like a Georgia cracker!
Zreebs says
I’ll keep my prediction from last month: Tossup (D) with razor thin better odds to Warnock than Ossoff.
CG says
When one watches the final evening of the 1972 Republican Convention (NBC coverage) on YouTube, you can spot Presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush) all together under one roof (plus Bob Dole and Frank Sinatra.)
I wonder if Mitt Romney was there with his dad.
Also worth nothing, Nixon mentions in his speech that he will never forsake the POWs in Vietnam which at the time included John McCain.
CG says
It’s interesting that besides his father ob one side, the 26 year old GWB was also sitting next to Don Rumsfeld.
Scott P says
I’ll laugh my balls off if enough if a few thousand Georgia Trump Republicans who planned to vote on Election Day miss it because they are road tripping to D.C. for the “protest”.
jamesb says
Voting ends at 7:00pm EST
Less than a hour from now….
jamesb says
Less than 1/2 hour on Georgia runoff voting..
jamesb says
It’s OVER for voting in Georgia…
Now we wait….
jamesb says
Check that…
NY Times reports several polling stations are still open…
jamesb says
First numbers trickle in with little spread between Ossof and Warnock votes….
jamesb says
Warning…
As in the November election…
Rural lower voting areas WILL send in their results faster then heavy voting urban areas…
So like in the November vote?
If Democrats win?
It may not show till towards the end of the count….
jamesb says
Wasserman looking at early returns is reporting that R numbers are about 5-10% off of Nov numbers….
Early vote favoring Dem’s is higher…
Warnock running slightly better than Ossoff in the early counting
jamesb says
Wow…
There ARE other down ballot races going on in Georgia
jamesb says
Via CNN 8:15PM
29% in both Warnock and Ossoff are leading by a few % points…
jamesb says
Folks THIS IS the early 1/3 of the vote reported and Dem’s were supposed to be trailing…
They aren’t….
The voting numbers are NOT. In from rhe big Atlanta Dem area’s yet i don’t think!
jamesb says
Wasserman
Bottom line so far: I think Republicans have a turnout problem.
jamesb says
Via CNN….
49% of the vote in
Both Dem Warnock and Ossoff ahead
CG says
According to Trump. once someone is ahead by 150, 000 votes on Election Night, it’s over, and they “won big.”
So, I guess it must all be over and the Trump Party has pissed away the Senate
bdog says
This is hopefully going to be a great defeat tonight…Fox News all but ignoring the news…just racist bashing Harris and Bashing Biden…
bdog says
We had election week in November which was exciting and nerve racking, tonight is just icing on the cake if it goes for the Democrats…will make tomorrows Protest in Congress even more of a joke…This could be an awful 2 months for the GOP despite some inroads in the house…
But now it is incumbent on the Democrats to get us out of the disaster the GOP left us in with COVID, etc…and if Mitch tries to use filibuster to block legislation, Democrats got to go nuclear, fuck McConnell and the boot lickers
CG says
Nobody should get too cocky. These races are going to wind up very close.
The early voting is reporting first, which is a switch from November.
And it will mess up Trump’s narrative.
jamesb says
68% in CNN….
Both Republicans just moved into the lead….
Atalanta suburbs still not in mostly….
CG says
A split decision, with the black guy being the one Democrat to win, would feel pretty 2020.
CG says
It probably would not be a split decision, but just in case, I want to copyright my poem in honor of Perdue and Warnock.
“It’s better to be a rich white guy or a bald black dude than a blonde chick or a young Jew.”
jamesb says
75% in CNN….
Warnock climbs ahead by 20,000 votes…
Ossoff trails by 5,000+ votes….
A Atalanta suburb vote dump….
Democratic Socialist Dave says
What a nail-biter.
I tuned into CBSN around 8:40 pm (EST) and both Democrats were at 53-54%, but getting closer to 50.0% as we approached counting half the votes. Now it’s been extremely tight, oscillating between a 10,000 to 15,000 margin for the Democrat and a comparable number for the Republican.
Are the yet-to-fully-report Southeastern counties primarily within the Black Belt, or primarily outside?
jamesb says
76% in CNN
Loeffler jumps ahead again….
Ossoff still trailing….
jamesb says
78% in CNN
Both Republicans leading….
Perdue lead by 40K+
Loeffler lead by 30Kk+
Again the urban Atlanta counties have not reported in….
They have BIG numbers…
The race IS close….
But remember Democrat’s have a bit larger of increased votes….
jamesb says
via Twitter….
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Democrats are the favorites in the Ossoff/Perdue race as well, which means they’re currently favored for Senate control. Still a ways to go there. #GASEN
…
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Loeffler may have just retaken the lead in the count, but she’s behind in the race considering what’s left. #GASEN
jamesb says
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
The biggest dump of remaining Democratic vote is the ~170k DeKalb County in-person early vote, which we expect to break for Ossoff by an 85-15 margin
jamesb says
Kornacki says more like 190K+ votesin Dekalb County….
That dump could come before 11PM….
Dem’s should get 80%+ of that….that would be around 150K in Democratic votes…..
There are even more votes outstanding that could favour Dem’s…
CG says
Bring on the prune juice?
jamesb says
The twitter world is going for BOTH Warnock and Ossoff getting ‘W’s’….
Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot
Others have said this too, but it looks like this will all come down to the 250,000 or so votes remaining in DeKalb. When those report, we can all go home. #GAsen
jamesb says
CNN…..
Dekalb 171,000+ Early vote totals are due shortly….
Most will be Democratic….
Absentee ballots should have been uploaded already…
Both Republicans ARE leading right now by about 80K average….
jamesb says
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
Replying to
@Nate_Cohn
Unlike the Warnock race, which is effectively over, the Ossoff race is still close that it’s worth dotting the ‘i’s and crossing the ‘t’s, especially since the model adds an uncertain number of provisional and late absentee ballots that you do want to see to believe
jamesb says
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
Replying to
@Nate_Cohn
Same story on the Ossoff side, who is now up to a 78% chance to win. GOP just not doing what they need to do to overcome the Democratic votes still to come
jamesb says
Twitter world IS ahead of CNN and MSNBC with seeing the Democrats pulling off TWO wins….
Cobb County another Dem county is due more vote reporting….
jamesb says
Essentially we ARE waiting for the big Democratic vote dump to show the win for Democrats turning Georgia Purple….
A SOUTHERN STATE.…
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Looks like they are setting up a big “voter dump” against the Republican candidates. Waiting to see how many votes they need?
jamesb says
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Replying to
@Redistrict
There’s even a pocket of pro-Dem votes left in Newton Co. (suburban ATL) that might not be factored into others’ models b/c some sites are prematurely counting it as fully reported. #GASEN
jamesb says
It appears the GOPer’s have Maxed out?
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Replying to
@Redistrict
There’s even a pocket of pro-Dem votes left in Newton Co. (suburban ATL) that might not be factored into others’ models b/c some sites are prematurely counting it as fully reported. #GASEN
jamesb says
Biden 1/20/21
@MJDubs73
Replying to
@Redistrict
That one is going to be razor thin. It won’t get called because of military ballots outstanding.
Liam
@LiamKWilliams19
Replying to
@MJDubs73
and
@Redistrict
There are 17k oversees ballots, maximum. If Ossoff is up by 17k+1, it can be called.
jamesb says
CNN now says Georgia/Dekalb has their votes counted but they are counting only 130,000….
Something isn’t right with that number….
bdog says
The Hope is on Dekalb County…only 35 percent in…and heavily Democratic…
bdog says
ALl the Republican Red districts almost done counting…
CG says
I’m feeling the Split Decision coming!
My limerick will go viral… maybe.
Democratic Socialist Dave says
How about Bubba McDonald (Ga Public Service Commission District 4) ?
Brad Raffensperger seemed very happy that McDonald is outpolling both Loeffler and Perduc.
CG says
Apparently, Bubba’s actual first name is Lauren.
CG says
Cobb County would be fairly Republican.
jamesb says
Cobb has moved to Democrats…Biden did well there…Tonght Dem’s doing better then Biden numbers
CG says
It is suburban and may be more split than pre-Trump, but it wouldn’t be any sort of D bastion.
CG says
Biden took 56% in Cobb County. Damn. That’s amazing. Newt Gingrich’s political base.
Says all you need to know about what Trump has done to Republicans in suburban areas.
jamesb says
Is the DeKalb outstanding 130K or 200K?
jamesb says
Daily Kos Elections
@DKElections
Our calculations put this 171k figure as more plausible than the lower one also being cited.
CG says
james is freaking out here for the Democrats. The people at HHR are freaking out over the Republicans.
I feel nothing. Just nothing. Serenity now is achieved.
jamesb says
Actually CG?
I’m HAPPY…..
I KNOW Warnock has won.…
It’s now about Ossoff who will probably come in about 25K votes less than Warnock just like I guessed….
CG says
Democrats need both to take the Senate.
The ticket splitters or those who only voted in one race are pretty interesting though to consider.
Perdue voters not voting for Loeffler? Disgruntled Doug Collins folks? Sexists?
Warnock voters not voting for Ossoff? Could very well be some remnants of anti-Semitism in the black community.
CG says
I can only hope I am this placid when the Bears are getting crushed Sunday in their upcoming playoff game.
CG says
Maybe I should actually use my blood pressure machine to take it right now. I’ve been too scared to for months.
jamesb says
CNN
Ok…..
There ARE 171,000 VOTES……
NOT 117,000
Top DeKalb guy Sterling
jamesb says
Manu Raju
@mkraju
Brad Raffensperger, Georgia Secretary of State, tells
@AmaraCNN
that Georgia results won’t be known until “probably lunchtime tomorrow”
jamesb says
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
Warnock is on track for victory with a greater than 95 percent chance to win, according to our estimates.
This is not a projection, but Republicans have largely exhausted their vote and Loeffler lead will not survive the remaining Democratic vote under reasonable assumptions
jamesb says
Nate Cohen is now pushing that Ossoff could/should win also…
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
Replying to
@Nate_Cohn
Ossoff up to a 92% chance to win, according to our estimates.
A lot of Perdue’s path depends on tabulation errors–of the sort we briefly considered as a possibility when they erroneously said 130k were left.
jamesb says
There ARE a LOT of Democratic vote to be reported….
There is NOT so much Republican vote left …..
jamesb says
The number given to CNN has to be wrong…
FiveThirtyEight
@FiveThirtyEight
According to some back-of-the-napkin calculations, the counties in Georgia with the most outstanding votes are DeKalb (about 200,000), Cobb (about 80,000) and Columbia (about 50,000). https://53eig.ht/2XdXASt
bdog says
Yeah Warnoff has probably got it…once those Dekalb numbers come in, but Ossoff is the problem…
jamesb says
Warnock IS A a LOCK….
He’s gonna garner tens of thousands more votes than Ossoff
jamesb says
CNN
DeKalb county dump comes in ….
Warnock up 20,000 votes over Loeffler
Ossoff trails by 20,000 votes to Perdue
bdog says
the just made the dump…Warnok ahead Ossoff down
bdog says
is there enough votes outstanding to pull Ossoff over the top…he needs a 20K gain…I don’t know…
jamesb says
Democratic still outstanding numbers are HIGHER then Republican’s
Just changed again,,,,,,
Warnock 19,000+
Ossoff 15,000-
There are 20,000 MORE Dekalb early votes to be uploaded
jamesb says
Some Atlanta county votes are still outstanding….
More adjustments CNN
Warnock back up to 20,000+
Ossoff 9,000-
jamesb says
Ossoff only down 3,000-
Warnock up 30,000+
Fulton County…CNN
jamesb says
Again….
Warnock has won as Wasserman called it seems…
Ossoff is the waiting game….
Scott P says
Georgia with 2 Democratic Senators.
Way to go Trumpiblicans!
jamesb says
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Warnock’s victory is pretty clearly going to wind up outside of Georgia’s 0.5% recount threshold. #GASEN
jamesb says
Ossoff is down 456- down from Perdue ….
from Newton Cty update dump
MBNBC
jamesb says
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Warnock’s victory is pretty clearly going to wind up outside of Georgia’s 0.5% recount threshold. #GASEN
jamesb says
More Cobb downloaded
Warnock…32,000+
Ossoff…..3,000-
CG says
I will be surprised if both Democrats do not win when all is said and done, but clearly, one is doing better than the other, and it is not necessarily the one that would have been expected to. Democrats of course need both seats to take the Senate.
So, you are a person who voted for Warnock in this runoff, but yet in the other race, you either vote for Perdue, or just do not cast a vote for Ossoff.
Why? Who can present a theory for why a voter would do that beyond the one I presented?
jamesb says
I disagree with ur top paragraph….
Warnock was the favourite in the polls and I had him as a win…
This is NOT unexpected….
Ossoff was a weak candidate and Purdue is a known quality…
Loeffier was a moderate Republican and all over the place…
CG says
They were expected to carry the same vote. Ossoff was not considered a weak candidate. He was considered more “moderate” than Warnock.
This is my theory-
Whatever amount of Jewish Democrats there are in Georgia were more than willing to vote for the African-American pastor who once called Israel an “apartheid state.”
Yet, at the same time, there were *some* African-American voters who voted for Biden in November and for Warnock today, but did not vote for the Jewish candidate. I find it harder to reconcile that there are a lot of white anti-Semites who would also not be anti-black.
Clearly, if Ossoff had done a lot better than Warnock, people would be questioning if race were a factor for those who voted for one but not the other.
jamesb says
CG….
If you check my posts here and RCP….
Warnock consistently polled better than Ossoff….
jamesb says
john rose
@johnrose_VA
fuck mitch mcconnell
CG says
This was worth you making a comment to present?
Is this 17 year old John Rose kid someone we are supposed to know about?
If you wanted to say something vulgar to McConell, just do it as yourself.
jamesb says
The channels aren’t gonna call this but the twitter world HAS….
Joe Biden has to be dancing around the room….
Chuck Schumer has to be euphoric!
Mitch McConnell has to be cursing Donald Trump out….
The ladies over at MSNBC are laughing….
jamesb says
Ossoff is behind 1,800 votes MSNBC…
There are tens of thousands of votes to come out in the next 12 hours…..
The vast majority are in Democratic area’s…
jamesb says
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
If there’s one possible consolation prize for Republicans, Lauren “Bubba” McDonald, Jr. (R) is leading Daniel Blackman (D) 51%-49% in the runoff for Public Service Commissioner District 4.
CG says
Either they really like their Bubbas or there are a bunch of voters who want to vote for an “R” but are just turned off by anyone who is perceived as being tied at the hip to Trump.
CNN just said you may get your Sally Yates wish, james.
If that happens, you are right on the list with SE predicting the Trump win three years ahead of time.
jamesb says
I always thought Yates was a the front runner….
Garland would be okay….
But Yates IS a twofer….
CIA director is still out….
I wonder if Biden is holding out to send John Brennan back?
CG says
If he picks Yates because Democrats won the runoffs, we will never hear the end of it from you.
jamesb says
Kornacki….MCNBC
Dekalb .,..still 20K votes out Dem+
Fulton….still 5-10k out Dem+
Chatham…still 3K….out Dem+
These are the BIGGEST numbers….
Mail vote from other GOP counties still out….Will not end up to Dalkab total….
Other mail vote outstanding should be + Dem also….
CG says
The military mail vote is still all out per Raffesnsperger.
Nobody will be conceding for some time.
jamesb says
I believe Warnock IS gonna speak tonight….
Concession or not ?
He’s gonna be a US Senator from a purple Georgia…
jamesb says
Warnock is up by 35,000+ and there are thousands of Dem votes are still to be reported….
Warnock has NO auto recount ….
John King CNN….
Only less then about 10,000 GOP votes probably not counted….
jamesb says
Ossoff is behind just 1,200 votes….
CG says
Every single black Senator (Scott, Booker, Warnock) will have a completely shaved head.
Michael Jordan might find a Senate run tough to pass up.
jamesb says
He, he, he….
CG says
All Democrat control puts Biden in a box he may not exactly have wanted to be in regards to the left, and certainly makes a more definitive narrative for Republicans in the midterms.
True about Schumer and McConnell though.
CG says
There was no real difference in the runoff polls, but still, the point holds. Why?
if you are going back to the November round, that does not work, because of the jungle primary aspect of the race that had Warnock and Loeffler.
bdog says
No opinion but my own…Race Division and Sex Division…
jamesb says
Rev Warnock surely gained from his race…
He’ll be the second Black Senator from the South…
He’ll have to run again in 2 years….
He’ll be running when Stacy Abrams will be running for Governor…
And she’ll get props for her job here in Ga tonight….
jamesb says
Oh, SNAP!
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
I’ve seen enough. Jon Ossoff (D) defeats Sen. David Perdue (R) in GA’s other Senate runoff. #GASEN
Democrats win control of the Senate.
(Twitter disclaimer)
Multiple sources may not have called the race when this was Tweeted
jamesb says
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Replying to
@Redistrict
It’s not yet assured Ossoff’s victory will end up outside GA’s 0.5% recount threshold, but it’s likely. #GASEN
bdog says
I don’t have twitter, Trump saying anything yet…I can’t wait until he does…will be a classic tweet…
CG says
If on the ideological scale, the candidates were considered to be:
Warnock- Ossoff- Loeffler-Perdue
What is the rationale for someone voting for both the person furthest to the left and furthest to the right or at least not casting a vote against the person furthest to the right?
CG says
Maybe Louis Farrakhan or Al Sharpton have some views..
Scott P says
Probably the same people in 2016 who voted Sanders in the Democratic primary and Trump in the general. .
It doesn’t always make sense.
CG says
Trump and Sanders shared some themes, and that does not apply here, but that was not literally the same day on the same ballot
What seems to be the case is that the raw vote number in the Perdue-Ossoff race is lower, so some people just skipped it.
And clearly some Perdue voters skipped voting for Loeffler. That makes more sense at least for a few reasons, least of which was that so many Republicans wanted someone else in November.
CG says
I used to be able to remember all of this but I did some brief research to be sure
First Senators born by decade:
’30s- Ted Kennedy
‘4os- Joe Biden
50’s Dirk Kempthorne, Russ Feingold, and Patty Murray I think (20 years after Biden)
60’s – Blanche Lincoln and Peter Fitzgerald
70’s Carte Goodwin by appointment- Ted Cruz. Marco Rubio, and Mike Lee by election later in the year
80s would be Jon Ossoff who was born in 1987. He would be the youngest Senator since Biden was elected.
Josh Hawley lost out by 1 day of being the first born in the ’80s
Democratic Socialist Dave says
This very young thread already has 170 posts (sorry, this will make it at least 171.)