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Election Day 2020…Biden vs Trump….Open Thread…

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Finally!

Finally we get you the voter to decided which man will lead the country come January 20th for four years….

Early voting seems to be record shattering….

We’ll see tonight if the voting today also breaks the records …

 

Polling is done on two levels…

Nationwide and in the states….

Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in the national polls by close to 10% a margin almost 4 times the margin Hillary Clinton had four years ago…Clinton’s National lead was dropping at this time four years ago…Biden’s is not…

While Clinton did have leads over Trump most of the Obama states?

Joe Biden has held a larger lead and his lead is holding NOT dropping  also….

 

All off the pundits have Joe Biden winning the election …..

The popular vote margin times higher that Clinton’s….

But?

We are ALL haunted by Donald Trump surprise win and we’re a bit worried….

 

Trump, the master of chaos is trying to spread it again on the election…

He has worked HARD to change the rules and undermine the process in order to wiggle another miraculous win….

His party members are working to suppress the vote, but the court have for most part not gone along with that…

Some reports are that Trump will try to call a victory in the important states to work against the expected Biden win call by midnight…

Trump and Republicans could also go after ballots like in the Gore vs Bush…. Florida contest …

 

All of this is based on a close election finish….

And I think will be set aside of Joe Biden pulls off a strong win of electoral votes and Democrats do well in the House and recapture the Senate..

 

The concept of waiting for ALL the votes isn’t gonna hold either…

States do not certify their final results for weeks….

And that would be after the electoral college votes….

 

I’m gonna go on limb with my forecast’s….

Joe Biden will be declared the winner by AP, CNN, ABC, NBC and CBS by 12:01 EST November 4th 2020….

I’m guessing that Biden will have 320-335 EV’s….

The Democrats will gain a slim US Senate Majority….

The House Democratic majority will increase by 5-8 seats….

The amount of people voting will set a record…..

And?

Life will go on….

And well will in for a rough next 80 days…..

image…USAToday.Com

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    • Morning All….

      Nice cool weather around my way….
      Happy we’re gonna get this counted today…

      I feel good about what should the results should be tonight…

      Like everything the last 4 years

      We actually get past some of the bull shit…

      It is up to us voters

      THAT is the REALITY….

    • I am too old to be doing this stuff.

      Joe just went into the lead in Wisconsin and Michigan is looking much better. If Arizona and Nevada hold then he should be on track to be our 46th President.

      It’s late and I need to be ready for ballot security issues in PA in a few hours.

      But, we have a President who is working to subvert our electoral process (and, of course, the Republicans in Congress are silent) and he isn’t going quietly. We are on the verge of becoming a Banana Republic. I was reminded of Ferdinand Marcos tonight when I saw Trump’s election night party at the WH.

      Folks need to do something about this. Do something. Not just sit behind their computer screen and type words and exchange political tidbits. Really do something.

  2. Yup CG….

    CNN Breaking News
    @cnnbrk
    Biden took all five of the votes cast for president in Dixville Notch, a tiny New Hampshire township along the US-Canada border that is among the first places in the country to make its presidential preference known…

  3. My very amateur, armchair classifications (based on polls, past history and the conventional wisdom:

    Most uncertain (2 SW, 3 SE, 3 Rust Belt):

    R Arizona
    R Texas
    R Florida
    R Georgia
    R North Carolina (Obama’08)
    R Pennsylvania
    R Michigan
    D Minnesota (D after 1972)

    Possible flips (base on polls and/or history):

    R Iowa
    R Ohio
    D Virginia
    D Nevada

    Outside chance of flipping:

    R Indiana (Obama ’08)
    R South Carolina (R since 1980)
    D Colorado (Dole’96 & Clinton’16)
    D New Hampshire (R in 2000)

    • One of my son’s and a neighbour just came back from voting….

      No lines….

      My son’s area is a Trump area…

      Could the Trump vote be OVER-Estimated?

        • Ok Scott but even where i will be tonight is deserted ….

          Might the ‘Trump Silent Vote’ be another fantasy?

      • I disagree strongly with James that Trump will win NH. And I disagree to a lesser degree that Trump will win MN. The other projections are very plausible.

      • My best bet is that if Trump is to flip a state that Hillary won, it would be Nevada. New Hampshire seems out of reach. Minnesota is an outside possibility.

          • Closing time info….

            BY 6:00 PM EASTERN
            STATE
            RATING
            ELECTORAL VOTES
            Indiana (first)
            11
            Likely Rep.
            8
            Kentucky (first)
            Solid Rep.

            BY 7:00 PM EASTERN
            STATE
            RATING
            ELECTORAL VOTES
            Florida (first)
            Tossup
            29
            Georgia
            Tossup
            16
            Kentucky (final)
            Solid Rep.
            8
            Likely Rep.
            Indiana (final)
            11
            New Hampshire (first)
            Lean Dem.
            4
            Likely Rep.
            South Carolina
            9
            Vermont
            Solid Dem.
            3
            Virginia
            Lean Dem.
            13
            Note: voting hours have been extended for two polling places in DeKalb County, Georgia.

            First results are expected in Florida within the hour; they could number in the millions. Nearly 9 million votes were cast early in person and by mail. Florida is one of the few swing states that allow the counting of those votes a week or more before Election Day.
            First results are also expected in Georgia within the hour. More than 2 million people voted early and in person, and more than 1 million voted by mail. The state allows those ballots to be processed as they are received, but they cannot be counted until the polls have closed on Election Day.
            New Hampshire expects to have preliminary results for most of the state on election night. While absentee voting is up this year, most of the vote is expected to be cast on Election Day.

  4. From Politicalwire:
    Joe Biden signed one of the living room walls in his childhood home today: “From this house to the White House with the grace of God. Joe Biden 11-3-2020.”

    Not a religious guy but reading that I got a little weepy

        • I just looked at the twitter feed on Florida vote….

          They are listing vote by party ….

          Dem’s and GOPer’s about even at 3 mi

          But i died at 2 mi….
          I would think we have hours more but this should be a worry for GOPer’s

          • One more thing….

            The early vote IS LARGE i think the numbers should come in fairly quickly tonight?

            • Biden Sees 8-Point Early Vote Lead In Battlegrounds

              “Joe Biden’s campaign said Tuesday that it believes it has at least an 8-point advantage in battleground states after analyzing the nearly 100 million ballots that were cast early,” Axios reports.

              “The campaign is arguing that it will be mathematically difficult for President Trump to close the gap with in-person voting on Election Day, and it’s working to create the impression that a Biden victory is most likely.”

              “The Biden camp also believes the former vice president can win 270 electoral votes even without Florida and Pennsylvania.”

                • It’s 4pm
                  I’m feeling a possible blow out coming…

                  But i could be wrong
                  BUT I DO NOT THINK SO

  6. Regular NBC News (Lester Holt et al.) is quite moronic, calling states on the basis of 15 votes (almost certainly part of one precinct) and already showing 11 T states to 3 B.

    Major Garreet discussed the importance of Ohio counties around Lake Erie (Toledo, etc.) which led the anchors to switch to someone discussing Erie County, Pennsylvania (so far they haven’t discussed Erie County, NY). Obviously Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Toledo have much in common, but they’re not the same.

    I haven’t yet checked out CNBC or MSNBC, but I should look at CBSN, PBS and CNN for something more useful.

  9. There is not going to be a”blue wave.”

    This is shaping up to be a simple replay of 2016.The question now is ,can Biden overperform Hillary in Michigan, Pa. and Wisconsin for the win.

    Ohio May a wild card.

      • AGAIN….

        We where told Trump would come out of the gate ahead….

        Lets face it …

        Some things where dreams….

        Biden winning Florida was a long shot….

        The inability to go after Latino’s that had histories of Socialist countries, who Trump told that Biden was Sanders buddy is evident….

        Biden ALWAYS knew that the game wasn’t about Florida,,,,

        It IS about Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin , Arizona etc….

        Biden wasn’t gonna win in Texas….

        That was gravy….

        The about states are where GOPer’s have tried to exclude the early vote….

        They are still up in the air…..

        Trump isn’t gonna get California, or Oragon….

        And RIGHT NOW?

        Joe Biden is LEADING in EV’s….

        • NY Times has the current EV count at 131 Biden….108 Trump……

          And some STILL have Florida too close to call…

          • Nate Silver
            @NateSilver538
            Replying to
            @NateSilver538
            Trump’s in a better position than he was at the start of the night. Biden’s not going to win in a landslide. But there’s still not a ton we know outside of Florida, and the data we do have is fairly mixed and not necessarily suggestive of as large a polling error elsewhere.

          • Some reporting issues in NC that would bring down Trump’s margin over Biden….

            Nate Cohn
            @Nate_Cohn
            We have some good news for Democrats in North Carolina, where a reporting error by Randolph County is padding Trump by about 30k in our estimate there.
            They reported both in person (abs one-stop) and absentee mail together, but the needle’s still expecting 45k early votes

  12. I think the saving grace is in PA the cities haven’t reported as much as the rural and suburban and they are predominantly a pro biden…but this worrisome, the silent trump voter…

  14. After midnight, and we’re just not that much the wiser.

    With the possible exception of Arizona (called for Biden by Fox News, much to the White House’s fury), the eight states we most want to know about are still too close to call:
    Texas, [Arizona?]
    Florida, Georgia & North Carolina
    Pennsylvania, Michigan & Wisconsin

    • Colorado went for Biden but Nevada is still uncalled, and I’m unsure how firm the result is in:
      Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio & Virginia.

      I’m tempted just to catch some sleep until things become a little clearer (which will be several days in some states).

    • Yup DSD…

      I got the time frame wrong….

      We have to wait for vote dump’s…
      Those will most likely be early Trump voting…
      Some of contributors to MSNBC Carvelle , Steele, McCaskell are saying Joe Biden will come thru….

      Wisc
      Minn
      Mich
      Pa
      Ga
      NC

  15. I told you all this might take a few days. This is an unprecedented circumstance of how some states count early votes/mail votes first and some count them last and how they are not even officially part of the “precincts yet to report.”

    What this means is that the endgame is probably a loss tomorrow or Thursday or Friday in a way that is the most possibly painful for Trump fans. Of course, they are going to think it was stolen and Trump will claim that too. We are headed for an ugly week and some time after, but what matters is the end result.

    It is too early to tell if Trump exceeded expectations or not nationwide. Maybe he did, but maybe he didn’t. There are a ton of votes uncounted and supporters of the candidates really tended to vote in different ways affecting the counting.

    For me, it sucks that I am so swamped at work that I cannot take tomorrow off. Of course, I am still working from home, so I have tv and internet and all that, but I probably need to actually try to sleep in an hour, so I am going to miss a lot. Normally, I would be up on Election Night until 4 am or so, but I remember groggily watching Trump give his victory speech four years ago and I had to go work the next day as well.

    It will be interesting to see what I wake up too. Hopefully, democracy will flourish now and in the future.

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