Allan Lichtman joins the crowd in predicting Donald Trump will be a one term President….
ON NOV. 8, 2016, President Donald Trump won an upset victory that blindsided reporters, pundits and much of the American electorate.
Overwhelmingly, election forecasts got it wrong. From mid-October to just before Election Day, FiveThirtyEight, the Cook Political Report, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball all portended a Clinton victory. But one model – American University professor Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys – correctly anticipated a Trump win.
And this time, Lichtman said seven keys are turned against Trump, which means he will lose the White House.
“As of late 2019, Trump was down only four keys. It was short of predicting his defeat,” Lichtman says. “Everything changed in 2020, with the pandemic and the cries for social and racial justice.”
Lichtman developed his 13 keys in collaboration with the late Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a Russian expert on earthquakes. They analyzed American presidential elections from 1860 to 1980 in seismological terms – stability indicated the governing party would keep the White House, while an earthquake indicated they would lose it. If six of the 13 keys turned against the governing party, they were in for a loss….