Please disregard the Trafalgar poll for Arizona….
If these late polls are close to right?
Again….
Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania AND North Carolina are out of reach for Donald Trump….
Ernst pulls ahead in Iowa?
Early Georgia vote is for Trump….
| Saturday, October 31 |
@Politics_Polls
MISSOURI
Trump 50% (+5)
Biden 45%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1% .
Parson (R-inc) 50% (+6)
Galloway (D) 44%
Combs (L) 2%
@Redistrict
Updated rough personal rankings of the Trump ’16 turf likeliest to flip to Biden:
1. Nebraska’s 2nd CD
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. North Carolina
7. Georgia
8. Florida
9. Texas
10. Maine’s 2nd CD 1
1. Iowa 12. Ohio
351-187
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2020/10/race-for-white-house-96.html
Be sure to read the “closer.”
Good read CG.
My map looks pretty much the same, but Texas is a real wild card this year. In the end I think there’s a good chance of the states I currently see Trump edging Biden two different paths could happen.
Texas could flip to Biden due to all the new voters trending blue.
Or Iowa and Ohio could revert closer to their 2008 & 2012 standings and give Biden a narrow win in both states.
So the former would yield Biden 389, the latter 375. Both would be 413. Just due to the different dynamics in
play to produce a flip of TX OH and IA (3 states that Trump won by high single digits last time but with different trajectories) I think that it is unlikely, but more likely than a narrow Trump reelection.
I doubt Iowa and Ohio end up in the Biden column, nor do I see Texas turning blue….
But the Obama states should go to Biden and NC , Arizona and Florida ….
I have Biden at 322 EVs .
You fellows are a little more bullish than I am.
I’m with you Jack at 320 and NC would make it 335….
Scott?
Texas would make it 350 to 370ish….
I know I’m repeating my self but Joe Biden MUST get at LEAST 320 EV’s….
What’s “Magic” about 320 EVs?
It would be 50 EV’s above 270 and would require the challenges to be across more than 3 states ….
In addition?
The physiological media cheering would just about bury everything else I believe….
Well yes that a valid point.
However, the popular vote alone should help also.
It’s looking like Trump May lose the popular vote by like ten million or so.
That alone will be devastating to all these supposed legal challenges.
Having said that?Im sure Trump will be filing all sorts of garbage.After all ,that has always been his modus operandi.
I predict that Trump will lose the popular vote by at LEAST TEN Million…..
I agree on the talk of the legal offence ….
But it would be washed out by a strong Biden win and a incoming Dem US Senate majority…
I hoping and praying for a ‘Shock and Awe’ win Jack…
RCP has Ohio for Biden by 0.2%….Iowa for Trump by 0.7%….
The graphic for Iowa shows Trump going up ….Biden going down…
The graphic for Ohio shows the opposite….
The graphic for Florida has Biden up….
The TRENDS ARE very good for Biden in the states….
The Iowa “ surge” for Trump is based on the DesMoines Register Poll last night which had him ahead by like 7 points ,a major turnaround from their poll a few weeks ago.The DMR Poll is A rated.
Then Emerson ,also A rated , came out this morning showing Iowa essentially tied(Trump by 1).
I have always counted Iowa for Trump though.
The pundits live by that Iowa poll ….
322 is still a solid win. Comparable to what Obama/Biden got in 2012. That year I was a bit off predicting a 290-248 Obama victory.
Yup Scott….
My feelings exactly
The final NBC/ WSJ National Poll has Biden with a solid 10 point lead 52/42,almost identical to their last poll a few weeks ago.
Iowa is doubtful, but it isn’t that important if Wi, Mich and PA all go back to Biden, that is game over…Those are the most likely states to come back to the Dem camp…
Post election, Biden needs to negotiate stimulus and include at least a 500 Billion infrastructure plan to be incorporated in stimulus and then do at least two or three more infrastructure bills…I think sticking with the theme that products and equipment and labor all need to be American based so that the money we spend by the government goes back into our economy not another countries coffers…
Pelosi has probably 25 bills lined up to advance…
If Schumer is running the Senate?
Things should move fast….
agreed James