Politicalwire and Politico highlight the view among some pundits that Democrats could gain between one to eight US Senate seats and increase their 35 seat majority in the House ….
Over the past three decades, U.S. Senate elections have become increasingly nationalized. Presidential coattails have always been a factor in Senate elections, but the connection between presidential and Senate elections is much closer now than in the past. This trend reflects rising partisan polarization and straight-ticket voting. Thus, in 2016, for the first time in modern history, the candidate of the winning presidential candidate in the state won every Senate contest.
There is every reason to expect that the 2020 Senate elections will continue this trend….
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There is now a very strong relationship between the outcomes of presidential and Senate elections. We can therefore predict the results of the 2020 Senate elections based on recent presidential polling in the states. My analysis of this polling data indicates that Democrats are likely to achieve a net gain of between one and eight seats with the most likely result a net gain of five seats, which would give them a 52-48 seat majority…
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Republicans’ outlays against a handful of the most beatable Democrats have hampered their ability to craft a serious path back to the majority. Democrats have seized on their cash advantage to contest districts in deep-red territory, forcing the GOP to retrench and protect incumbents and open seats.
As of mid-October, national Republicans are playing more defense than offense, airing TV ads in 28 GOP-held districts compared to 25 Democratic-held ones, according to a POLITICO analysis of data from Advertising Analytics, a TV tracking firm.
“We’re able to flip the tables and focus on expanding the map. And I do think that that’s a shift,” said Abby Curran Horrell, the executive director of House Majority PAC, Democrats’ main House super PAC. “They are tied down in districts that I think they expected that they would be able to win easily. But it is not that type of year.”…
image…marketwatch.com