A Marist poll for Florida had political pundits running around with their hair on fire for a few hours yesterday …
It had Biden and Trump tied….
That was ONE poll….
Look below for the follow ups which continue to show Joe Biden leading Donald Trump as he has been since he got the nomination during the primaries before the convention…
New polls from Change Research:
- Arizona: Biden 49%, Trump 45%
- Florida: Biden 49%, Trump 46%
- Michigan: Biden 49%, Trump 43%
- North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
- Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
- Wisconsin: Biden 50%, Trump 44%
New polls from Morning Consult:
- Arizona: Biden 49%, Trump 46%
- Florida: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
- Michigan: Biden 52%, Trump 42%
- North Carolina: Biden 48%, Trump 47%
- Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
- Wisconsin: Biden 51%, Trump 43%
It should be noted this
– despite not weighting for education – is pretty close to the proper weight for PA. Non-college whites (who are 60%-38% Trump in the poll) are 44% of their LV sample here; my Census-based estimate is ~46%.
Update from Real Clear Politics.…
Good numbers for Joe Biden….
|Wednesday, September 9|
Bunch of live-caller polls in this morning, conducted on behalf of the AARP. Generally a mediocre set of polls for Biden and D Senate candidates relative to polling averages, although with exceptions. Note the timing—not super recent—and big sample sizes. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
The graph in the tweet has Biden ahead in Fla, Ariz, Mich, Wis, Ga, Como, and Maine….
Trump ahead in Iowa and Mont only….
Biden 51% (+8)
Biden 51% (+9)
Biden 51% (+9)
Woodward Book ‘bounce’???
This poll is after the Atlantic article.
11:07 AM · Sep 10, 2020·Twitter Web App
Biden Maintains Wide National Lead
A new Monmouth poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump nationally by 51% to 42% among registered voters and 51% to 44% among likely voters.
Key finding: “Biden continues to have more firm support – 43% of all registered voters and 45% of likely voters say they are certain to vote for him – than Trump does. Certain support for the incumbent comes from 37% of registered voters and 41% of likely voters.”
Also interesting: “About 6 in 10 voters are confident – 22% very and 39% somewhat – that the November election will be conducted fairly and accurately. But, another 24% are not too confident and 13% are not at all confident in how the election will be conducted.”
Late polls updates….
Biden 51% (+6)
, LV, 9/6-8
Biden 51% (+7)
, LV, 9/3-6
Biden 58% (+23)
Biden 49% (+4)
, LV, 8/30-9/5
Sept 11 RCP….
Friday, September 11
Race/Topic Poll Results Spread
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 46, Trump 48 Trump +2
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Indiana: Trump vs. Biden Indy Politics/Change Res. (D)* Trump 53, Biden 39 Trump +14
Oregon: Trump vs. Biden DHM Research Biden 51, Trump 39 Biden +12
North Carolina Senate – Tillis vs. Cunningham Rasmussen Reports Cunningham 47, Tillis 44 Cunningham +3