Against Hillary Clinton?
Donald Trump’s polling was up and down….
Several times Trump was even ahead of Clinton….
THAT is NOT the case this time….
Trump is and has been losing from the jump….
He has NEVER caught up to Biden….
He has NEVER gotten a approval from a majority of Americans poll show…
But?
And that is a LARGE BUT….
Donald Trump lost the election four years ago and won the job as President…
The story was the polls were wrong…
But that isn’t true….
Hillary Clinton DID win…
In any other way she’d be President….
But we don’t do that for President…
It IS where the vote comes from…
Not the majority….
As we come up on 2 months from Election Day we have some thing breaking out across the American political world….
Pundits are starting to back away from the polling numbers and models and hedging their bets with talk that Trump CAN win again…
That has paralleled a feeling among voters that say …’yea Biden is ahead…But Trump will win again…’
There IS little reason to believe that Donald Trump will do his squeeze win again by the 70,000 or so vote margin while losing the popular vote…
BUT?
A lot of people are still worried …..
And Trump & Co. are betting on it….
New Open Thread is HERE.…
Civics 1 :
The Leader is the Party
The Party is the Government
The Government is the Nation
The Nation is the People
The People are the Race
One Race
One People
One Nation
One Leader
Any questions ?
Really !?! ??? !!!
Bull Shit!
Morning People….
Stock Market closes at its best in decades
Mike Flynn is probably gonna need a pardon before Trump leaves office….
Oregon GOP Fails Again In Effort to Recall Kate Brown
The latest effort by Oregon Republicans to recall Gov. Kate Brown (D) has fallen short of gathering the necessary signatures, Willamette Week reports.
An NBC Wall St Journal poll of 215 Gary Johnson and Jill Stein voters from 2016 found that 47% are planning to vote for Biden. 20% for Trump and 33% are undecided will still support third parties or not vote.
Johnson and Stein combined to get 5% of the vote last time and had vote totals much larger than the margins between Trump and Clinton in most swing states.
If this plays out nationally and Biden gets half the 2016 third party vote with Trump only getting one fifth that’s a bog problem for the GOP
Closing in 2 months from Election Day….
Morning….
Donald Trump just did Joe Biden a favour talking to the press on the ramp before getting on Air Force One enroute to Kenosha…
I know some people aren’t into polls …
But it does appear that Joe Biden is holding his own after the GOP convention with a slight bounce a slight amount more than Trump ….
The trend?
Trump is STILL trailing Biden across the country….
Morning people!
Bill Weld and Rick Snyder are the latest former GOP governors to endorse Biden.
Seems like a lot of the Republicans who didn’t support Trump last time but voted third party (in Welds case actually on a third party ticket) or a write in aren’t messing with that foolishness a second time around. Smart.
Good Morning People…
Donald Trump is ‘right on’ in trying make sure Joe Biden takes over his job come Jan 20th
I know Scott…..
There ARE fall off’s occurring EVERY day…
Trump and Russia are coordinating their messaging…again. This time is on discrediting mail-in voting. Russia is trying again to infiltrate states’ election data system and continuing its massive misinformation campaign.
AOC (via Progress America) just asked for my endorsement.
But does she really want one from a self-declared democratic socialist who’s not even a citizen? Imagine her opponent’s attack ads!
Give it…..
But None of us can actually cast a ballot vote for her…
NYCRepublican might be to…
Majority of Young Adults Still Living with Parents
Pew Research: “The coronavirus outbreak has pushed millions of Americans, especially young adults, to move in with family members. The share of 18- to 29-year-olds living with their parents has become a majority since U.S. coronavirus cases began spreading early this year, surpassing the previous peak during the Great Depression era.”
Bernie Sanders
@BernieSanders
We must do everything we can to ensure
@JoeBiden
wins by the largest possible margin. We also must consider what happens if Trump loses but refuses to abide by the results and does everything he can to hold onto power.
Morning All….
CG’s take on the Palmetto State Senator who represents Jack:
https://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/
A history and prediction that i think is spot on….
Graham has been there before…
If he loses?
His story will seconds to Trump/Biden story…
Your confirmation Jack?
I’ve previously stated that I thought Graham will win but by a reduced margin than last time where he got a little over 60% .
This time?Maybe 53-54%.
Harrison is running a good campaign but if he wins?Then you are likely looking at aDemocratic landslide
Agreed…..
Good Morning…
Nate Silver
@natesilver538
I don’t think there’s always a huge amount of info in how campaigns themselves assess the state of the race. But still, it’s pretty remarkable if it’s only Labor Day, and allies of Trump think there’s “virtually no chance” he wins the popular vote.
nytimes.com/2020/09/06/us/…
I figured Sept. would be the time that more and more GOPer’s would have to deal with the REALITY that this time?
Trump was NOT gonna be able to pull a win off…
Biden is NOT Hillary….
The virus IS making people wear masks
STILL…
And people are on to Trump’s Bull Shit…
The economy maybe Trump’s only thing that Trump beats Biden in …
But even THAT is gonna get worst …
NEW update on post-convention polling, along with a deep dive into August polls, showing why 2020 is quite different from 2016:
“No teams” Indy (fyi, “No Teams” ≠ “neutral”)
@NoTeamsIndy
Replying to
@Nate_Cohn
NEW update on post-convention polling, along with a deep dive into August polls, showing why 2020 is quite different from 2016:
Quote Tweet
“No teams” Indy (fyi, “No Teams” ≠ “neutral”)
@NoTeamsIndy
· 5h
@JoeBiden v. Trump 9/6 UPDATE
Nat’l: Biden +7.0/Clinton +3.1
EC: Biden 289-125 (+174) / Clinton 251-164 (+87)
Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds, Clinton ZERO (highest 45.2%, 13 under 42%)
No convention bounces in nat’l polls. Notable changes: AZ 2.1 -> Biden, FL 2.8 -> Trump
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Morning All…
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
Biden has been running for president for 501 days by count… He’s been ahead of Trump for each of those 501 days. No challenger has ever led for that long.
Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers
National Tracking Poll:
Biden 52% (+10)
Trump 42%
@USCDornsife
, (8/31-9/6)
A 2 point shift towards Biden in a day
Bloomberg
@business
Biden has 71.1% chance of winning the election, according to FiveThirtyEight
Morning people ….
— Rhode Island and New Hampshire are holding some of the last downballot primaries of the year, with three races to watch in the Granite State…..
Politico…
Trump IS gonna go back to the 2016 game plan….
Traveling….
Giving impromptu presser everyday to get media attention …
And of course LYING….
Doing the perception thing again….
BTW?
The traveling in 2016 DID WORK for him….
Biden and Harris will HAVE to go on the road and his handlers ARE going to HVE TO generate crowds for them…
Rachel “The Doc” Bitecofer
@RachelBitecofer
Ds stand to pick-up 6 House seats in TX + need 9 state house seats (Beto carried 9 districts in ’18) to flip the TX state house & disrupt the worst gerrymander in America.
That’s why my
@ElectionWsphr
special Liberate Austin w
@BetoORourke
&
@JoaquinCastrotx
, is coming out soon
Quote Tweet
Conor Sen
@conorsen
· 18m
“Texas is to the left of Florida” starting to become a non-zero possibility.
Some primary results for NH and RI from RRH Elections…
NH Results: DDHQ; NPR; AP
10:45 ET – Messner and Negron have gotten the calls as well. That’ll do it for tonight, thanks for joining us! Only one more primary night to go this year–a week from tonight in Delaware.
10:15 ET – Dan Feltes, the more mainstream of the two Democrats running, gets the check for NH-Gov and will face Chris Sununu (R) in November. Messner is holding on to the same 6-point lead he’s had all night (currently 50-44) and looks on track to win the Senate GOP nod. Negron has opened up a 47-40 lead in NH-2-R….
RRH Elections…
Morning….
RCP FINALLY catches up on the polls which are solid Biden as was pointed out here yesterday evening,…
The pundit meltdown yesterday over Florida should be over….
Trump IS in trouble and it ain’t 2016…
Woodward blockbuster post on its way
….
Gheez!
WTF does Trump want a second term with this stuff just piling on?
CNN Breaking News
A whistleblower says top Trump appointees repeatedly sought to alter intelligence to suit the President’s agendas on White supremacists and Russia
(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
Another day off the calendar, and another day where Trump was on the defensive in a news cycle. We’re now inside of 55 days from the election, and Biden leads by 8 nationally and by 5+ in enough states to total 270+ electoral votes.
RCP’s Trump vs Biden and Trump job approval post a little bump up for Biden….
Hmmmm?
I wonder if the Woodward book gives Biden a ‘Comey’ Trump like bounce
Morning….
Hey Jack?
Lincoln Project Looks to Take Down Lindsey Graham
Many of The Lincoln Project’s founders had ties to the late Sen. John McCain. So when it comes to their latest ad — a devastating attack on Sen. Lindsey Graham — they admit to the National Journal that “this one was personal.”
Hope he loses.
Doubt he will.
Trump just did a mini presser and tried to blame China, Woodward, and Pelosi on the infections and death’s for the first few month’s….
NOT HIMSELF…….
Trump’s in this presser?
This is Donald Trump…….
‘What I did and is doing and ‘Fuck Everyone else….’
190,000 people have died and over a SIX million have been infected….
President Trump is in DEEP SHIT on this….
Rhode Island’s active primary races are all municipal or for the General Assembly.
Cong. James Langevin (2nd Dist.) does have a Democratic primary challenger, Dylan Conley, but should obliterate him, just because Conley has not been able to make himself noticed.
The senior U.S. Senator, Jack Reed, is uncontested in the Democratic primary.
The most important municipal races are in Warwick and Cranston (where GOP Mayor Allan Fung, who twice contested Gina Raimondo for Governor, is term-limited).
“Joe Biden’s campaign is expanding its footprint in Georgia with 10 additional staffers for the final stretch of the presidential race,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports….
Politicalwire…
Political Pills
Texas Poll:
Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 47%
@ppppolls/@GiffordsCourage
(D) V, 9/1-2
Another wave of polls just dropped
They are more favorable to Biden across the swing states …
I’ll post then tonight …
There maybe more coming today…
We’re 8 weeks away from the General Election (Tues. 3 Nov.), but 19 weeks and a day before the Inauguration (Weds 20 Jan. 2021).
That gives Trump another 11 weeks to wreak more havoc, destruction and division even if he loses.
Indeed….
He’s hoping to repeat a come from behind thing again…
As usual, James, that wasn’t quite my point — which was that even if (as all of us so devoutly hope and trust) Donald Trump loses on November 3rd, he will still have nearly another three months (11 weeks + 1 day) to continue wrecking the Republic and the country with it, too.
In fact he’d probably try to do even worse damage (much of it irreperable), leaving Biden, Harris, Pelosi et al. with the broken shards of a broken land.
I KNOW….
It’s scary…..
I did address my thoughts on this precarious time in a post before …
I can summarize it later…
So I spent a few days in Western Michigan–towns along the coast of the Great Lakes. It was easy to socially distance on the beaches there and there were mask requirements in all of the establishments. Of course we still did all of our dining outside as the weather was incredible (and we had a dog in tow).
Saw a few Trump signs but considering I always knew that area to be pretty conservative (outside of the artsy tourist towns) from when I had work clients there I didn’t see as many as I expected. As to Trump’s beloved “boat brigades”–I saw only one boat with a Trump flag.
Peggy Noonan was rightly roasted over the coals in 2012 for claiming that all of the Romney-Ryan signs she saw in Virginia meant he would take the state–so I’m not drawing any conclusions from my observations.
Just an observation from a sort of swing state.
Thank You Scott….
Kinda Trump Lite, eh?
Emma Peel Dead
https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/tv/2020/09/10/diana-rigg-dead-game-thrones-and-the-avengers-actress-82/5768613002/
Morning…..
Never Forget…..
The Blogging Caesar over at Election Projection STILL has Biden projected winning over Trump by as much as 130 EV.s with it 334 to 204…
And Good Morning to All….
Apparently yesterday in Pa.Trump was caught on camera reciting the Pledge of Allegiance While omitting the words “,” under God.”
Now personally I don’t give a damn whether he ,or anyone else ,recites it at all( apparently Melania didn’t) .
However, could one just imagine Joe Biden failing to do so.FoxNews would be running with it 24/7 .Republicans would be apoplectic..He would be labelled unpatriotic.etc etc.
Now that Trump has done this though,it will become the favorite”whatabout “ for anyone accused by these faux Right wing “patriots” who like to make a big deal when anyone doesn’t live up to their standards of “patriotism.”
Just for the record, when the pledge is recited I always participate, more out of habit than anything else.
I take no position on what anyone else does .
Same here cause this place ain’t really about ‘Justice for All’…..
Indeed Jack….
Different standard’s for Trump then Biden…
Morning…
Political media ALL hanging on the new Fox poll that has Trump at -5 behind Biden…
That is a improvement for Trump….
One poll though …..
Trump tells a crowd….’ we’re gonna win again then 4 years later negotiate ANOTHER TERM!’
Takeaway from that poll–5 points is a bit narrower than other Biden leads so that is good news for Trump
On the other hand Biden over 50% and very few undecideds.
It’s worth noting that in both elections in the last twenty years where the popular vote loser won the Electoral College neither candidate received a majority of the vote.
Seems to me someone who passes 50% of the vote on Election Day is the prohibitive favorite to win enough states to secure an Electoral College victory. The reason? Fewer third party votes to produce weird statewide wins with 46 or 47% like Trump did in all of the states that made the difference in 2016.
Harry Enten
@forecasterenten
The Fox poll had a veterans crosstab (static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/co…). It’s a small sample size… Trump ahead, but he’s down ~10 pts from where he was in 2016.
Remember Fox still needs Trump access…
Last two RCP listed Trump v Biden polls had bigger sample’s and Biden up +7….
RCP Biden margin IS +7.5…..
Trump IS in trouble….
I haven’t done the calculations to test this, but I’m not sure how right you are, Scott.
In 1976, Jimmy Carter won a hair over 50.0% to Gerry Ford’s 48.0% in 1976, but had a few thousand Carter votes in Ohio and Wisconsin flipped to Ford, Carter would have lost the Electoral College. However, it may be (again I haven’t calculated an estimate) that, if those two states had flipped, Ford would have won enough votes in other state to surpass Carter in the national popular vote.
In 1916, Woodrow Wilson won 49.25% (almost 50%) to Charles Evans Hughes’ 46.11% — in an election where the 6% Socialist vote had been halved without Eugene V. Debs as their candidate — but had just 19,000 (0.2%) of California’s votes gone to the GOP instead of the Democrats, Gov. Hughes would have won the Electoral College 267 to 264.
And it was a nail-biter that Election Night (almost certainly too late for the result to make the Wednesday morning papers), since California was so close and so far away. Political enthusiasts in the East had their eyes and ears glued all night to reports over the telegraph wires and the wireless telegraph, since the winner of California’s 13 electoral votes would have won the national election.
That’s why I said “prohibitive favorite”.
Also in 2004 despite GW Bush garnering 51% of the nation wide popular vote had 60,000 votes flipped in Ohio that state would have gone to John Kerry–who would have won the Electoral College 272-266.
My point was that being able to win states with 45-47% helped Trump in 2016. It’s unlikely he will be able to do that again this year with a much smaller number of third party votes.
And hopefully a much LARGER Tuneout?
Something NONE of us support….
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) on Sunday condemned protesters who reportedly yelled “death to police” outside the hospital where two Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department deputies are being treated and in critical condition after being shot.
Fox News reports that video showed protesters blocking a hospital entrance and shouting “death to police,” “I hope they f—ing die,” and “kill the police.”
“There’s no place in civilized society for anybody to draw an arm and to shoot our law enforcement officers that put their lives on the line,”…
More…
Morning People…
NY has early voting and my wife and I will do so at the end of Oct….
Good move with extra money but wishful thinking….
Biden Adds More Staff In Texas
Texas Tribune: “The campaign has added 13 more members to its team in Texas, where polls continue to point to a close race against President Trump.”
The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Trump barely leading Biden in Texas, 47.6% to 46.6%.
How soon one forgets. I got only 17 out of these 20 possibilities who did NOT seek the 2020 Democratic nomination for President:
https://www.sporcle.com/games/Thebiguglyalien/not-2020-democratic-candidates
Since Donald Trump is saying he’s “entitled “to aThird term
And no Republican has contradicted him?
The only conclusion is that most Republicans are opposed to the Constitution of the United States!
No crown for Franklin !
Oops, sorry, that was a campaign slogan of the Republican Party [1854-2016].
And anyway, George Washington (who set the precedent, but died in 1799 before he would have completed a third term) was a Loser.
None of them actually came out in favor of his want either…
Hurricane Sally rolling up on Louisiana and Florida….
Seriously?
Somebody IS mad at America…
100 mph winds…
Is this the first of many?
Perdue Begins to Distance from Trump
With Sen. David Perdue’s (R-GA) re-election chances teetering on a knife’s edge, the Republican is talking more about himself as a ‘bipartisan problem solver’ — and less about his reputation as one of President Trump’s most loyal allies, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
“Being one of Trump’s most loyal allies in the U.S. Senate might have helped him avoid a primary challenger in June. But to win in November, Perdue is trying to cast himself as a consensus builder who will defend capitalism.”
Morning people….
Somebody IS mad at America…..
Morning everyone….
“A MAGA red hat wearing bootlicker!”
Apparently, while Trump was on a town hall on ABC last night, more of the cult chose to watch Hannity and Carlson, two of the cults propagandists.
In other words they didn’t want to actually see Dear Leader in action,preferring to simply have the paid mouthpieces tell them how great he is.
Mere sheep.
Wait for the debate….
Trump should be a hot mess
The debates?
Haha!
The Republicans will declare Trump the winner when he walks on the stage.
Morning…..
Polling trends keeping moving AWAY from Donald Trump….
And he ain’t doing a damn thing to stop it….
When are his enablers gonna wake up and realize the boat HAS left the dick?
2016 was 4 years AGO….
“boat HAS left the dick”
Funniest typo Ive seen in awhile.
And considering we’rr talking about Trump very appropriate!