Somewhere Senator Chuck Schumer IS smiling…
Mitch McConnell is looking over his shoulder….
Larry Sabato’s Kyle Kondik
As we examine the race for the Senate majority, we thought it’d be worthwhile to rank the dozen seats we see as the most competitive from most to least likely to change hands. As we see it right now, 10 of the 12 most vulnerable seats are held by Republicans, even as Democrats are defending the seat likeliest to flip, Alabama.
1. Alabama (D)
2. Colorado (R)
3. Arizona (R)
4. Maine (R)
5. North Carolina (R)
6. Iowa (R)
7. Montana (R)
8. Georgia (Regular) (R)
9. Michigan (D)
10. Texas (R)
11. Georgia (Special) (R)
12. Alaska (R)
Before we explain the rankings (and a couple of rating changes), we wanted to explain how presidential partisanship plays into them. While presidential and Senate results will differ, presidential and Senate outcomes have come further into alignment in recent years….
Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings
New Senate battleground polls–Arizona looking like a done deal and North Carolina heading that way too.
North Carolina: Cunningham 49%, Tillis 41%
Maine: Gideon 48%, Collins 45%
Iowa: Greenfield 45%, Earnst 43%
Arizona: Kelly 50%, McSally 40%
Isn’t it at least a little surprising that in states like NC and AZ, the Democratic Senate candidates are polling much better than Biden? I would think that Trump would be under-performing almost all of the GOP candidates. But that is not what the polls say.
Trumpists don’t really care about other Republicans. They are either very far on the right or populist types who never voted Republican before Trump. They just do not like McSally and Tillis in particular because they are viewed as not being loyal enough to Trump, whereas another group of voters thinks they are too close to Trump.
These Trumpists may eventually vote for them at the end but they are mostly focused on Trump.
Trump HAS been able to pit the common sense of GOPer lawmakers against them with his crazy assed wants
“GOPers” and “common sense”
That’s funny in and of itself.
Any damn fool who lets a con artist like Trump influence them?
Is worthless .
Another inane defense of Republicans
You May be right, but the intensity of many Democrats is through the roof. I have never disliked a candidate or even disliked a person more than I do Trump. In truth, I have a difficult time thinking highly of anyone who likes Trump.
My old boss recently posted something on Linked in saying that Trump is doing God’s work. It will be really difficult for me to forget that comment.
The vast majority of Trump voters are also dependable Republican voters. I’m not sure what qualifies one to be a “Trumpist” unless it’s just a laughable attempt by CG to divorce those who support Trump from those who support Republican candidates and policies. Yes a few right wingers are more committed to Trump than they are down ballot Republicans–which is why someone like Tillis or McSally polls a couple points lower than Trump in their respective states
I think we have been through this before and I have provided statistical data.
Not disputing that the vast majority of Republican voters are voting for Trump, but those who voted for him in 2016, did not constitute a “vast majority” or people who identified as Republican.
At most a slight majority.
No doubt Trump IS losing some around the edges….
CG, but isn’t it always true that the winning candidate had to generate significant support from indies and the other party? (Ignoring of course deep blue or deep red districts).
Yout comment seems to me to be a “sky is blue” comment.
Yes, it seems kind of obvious at the national level, but I am just pointing that out when the claim is made that a “vast majority” came from either conservatives or Republicans.
It wouldn’t be possible. People should not miss out on the big picture. Conservatives and/or Republicans only made up part of what allowed Trump to win.
Yes when 32% of voters identify as Democrats and 26% as Republicans it’s clear that any major party nominee needs to garner a large chunk who identify as “independents”.
Of course of those who label themselves “independent” there are those who lean conservative and usually support the Republican nominee. Just as there are those independents who lean left and usually support the Democratic nominee.
As Zreebs said–a “sky is blue” comment. I’m sure CG didn’t bring such distinctions when Romney’s vote share was padded by Republican leaning independents as well.
According to the exit polls, “Independents” made up 31% of the electorate and Trump got 46% of that vote.
Those calling themselves “moderates” made up 39% and Trump took 40%.
He also took less among “conservatives” than he did among “Republicans.”
Romney took 41% of moderates (roughly the same number as Trump), but took 93 percent of Republicans and 50 percent of Independents.
Trump took 88 percent of Republicans and 46 percent of Independents
So Trump “only” got 88% of Republicans while Romney got 93%–insignificant.
No, there’s significance there. Clearly, a noticeable portion of Republicans voted for a different option.
and those numbers are not even counting the Republicans who when faced with that choice, stayed home completely.
Lindsey close , but should pull it out…..
Idaho U.S. Senate
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2020/08/race-of-day-idaho-us-senate.html
This is the odd day when objective survey aggregators go against their own political leanings in predicting the Senate.
All of them see GOP Senators McSally (Ariz), Gardner (Colo), Collins (Maine) & Tillis (N.C.) losing to Democratic challengers, while Doug Jones (D) loses the Alabama Senate seat he won in the special election to succeed Jeff Sessions (R).
However, the liberal-leaning http://www.Electoral-Vote.com sees Iowa narrowly voting for incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst (for a 50-50 split that would sometimes be resolved with the Vice President’s casting vote), while the right-wing http://www.RealClearPolitics.com and the conservative Blogging Caesar at http://www.ElectionProjection.com both see Sen. Ernst losing to Theresa Greenfield (D), giving the Democratic+Independent conference 51 Senators to the Republicans’ 49 (before counting the Vice President, who’d only vote when exactly one more Democrat votes with the GOP than vice-versa).
… and the Crystal Ball in the post above fudges by calling Iowa, Maine and North Carolina toss-ups for D 48-(¿3?)-49 R.
From the polls I’ve seen, NC seems leans Cunningham., and not a tossup, even though it is still winnable for Tillis.