And they’re off!
With Donald Trump sinking in the polls and very possibly a loser in the November elections ?
The next generation of Republicans are warming up for the long haul campaign…
Governor Hogan is NOT a strong Trump guy and will find out if the Republican Party actually cares about Trump, or just doesn’t like Democrats…
Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland, a popular Republican governor who has drawn national attention for publicly challenging President Trump on the coronavirus, announced on Tuesday that he was starting a virtual book tour for his new memoir, elevating his profile as he considers a presidential run in 2024.
Mr. Hogan, who flirted publicly last year with a primary challengeagainst Mr. Trump, instead took the helm of the National Governors Association, where in recent months he has been at the forefront of an often fraught relationship between the Trump administration and governors around the country struggling to confront the pandemic. Mr. Hogan, 64, recounts the experience at length in his book, and said that it had reinforced his interest in seeking the presidency.
“After this November election is over, regardless of who wins, there are a large majority of Americans who are completely convinced our political system is fundamentally broken, and they’re going to be looking for something different,” Mr. Hogan said in an interview about the memoir, titled “Still Standing: Surviving Cancer, Riots, a Global Pandemic and the Toxic Politics that Divide America,” which is to be released on July 28.
“We have an election coming up — we’ll see what happens there — but I’ve been leading the nation’s governors through one of the biggest crises in our lifetime,” he added…
image….…Andrew Mangum for The New York Times
2024 is a long way off.
jack has proclaimed that he is certain this Hogan thing would never happen.
In July of 2012, we all would have been saying the same about Donald Trump becoming the 2016 Republican nominee.. well, everyone but SE.
So who knows?
You can also be certain that just about nobody expected that a Republican like Larry Hogan could have been elected Governor of heavily blue Maryland. But he was, and then reelected in a rout, and to this day has remained very popular there.
So who knows?
Ron G is on Hogan’s staff….
Campaigning for the American Presidency is often 4 years or MORE…
Trump was in tune with his party though. Hogan is not.
Yup….
We’ll see how this goes….
I disagree that Trump was in tune with the party before his nomination. He was at like 1 or 2 percent in national polls when he announced and when he started talking and expressing views on issues, all sorts of Republicans were horrified.
Other candidates tried to run on differences with Trump, but with support being so divided and with Trump able to dominate media coverage (perhaps due to a personal deal with Roger Ailes), he won the nomination, after everyone else gave up the fight, albeit with a smaller amount of support in primaries than any nominee had ever received.
Then, as nominee, many in the party decided that whatever they believed before, was no longer operative, and they would choose to fall in line with Trump whether they thought he was in tune or not because.. Hillary… the media… judges… etc. etc.
The same process could play out again in the future in a variety of different potential ways.
Trump ran AGAINST the GOP establishment…Remember?
I disagree. Trump knew what rank and file Republicans wanted in 2015-16 and he gave it to them.
Yes he did …
BUT?
Rank and File did NOT = Establishment lawmakers ….
a faction of the rank and file who liked what they heard. As well as many people who had NEVER voted in a Republican primary before. He brought them in.
And then he won the nomination and people in the party who were at one time horrified at the concept decided to make a choice.
I am talking about the rank and file as a whole.
There were 16 candidates or something at one point. If you would have done a poll and asked them to pick who their #1 pick was and who their least favorite pick was, there would have been more votes for Trump as the least favorite than top favorite.
Trump conducted a hostile takeover of the party. But give credit where it is due. It turned out to be a successful takeover.
No doubt on the takeover….
One of the few things he actually Has accomplished in the last few years…
Nice little fable you are telling yourself. Trump may be a moron in most things but he knew the Republican voters fattened up with red meat from Rush Limbaugh and FOX News were ripe for the picking.
In the series “The Loudest Voice” it’s clear that Roger Ailes was actively recruiting Trump and pledging Fox’s total support if he ran. It was his suggestion to hire actors to “cheer” Trump as he descended the escalator for his announcement.
Thank you RE….
His efforts and stage craft worked on the big guy who is still a entertainer, snake oil salesman, who hates his own government and lives in alternate universe…
I love that they keep asking Trump about his second term agenda. How does “more hate, more division and more money in my pocket” poll with Fox viewers?
The guy can’t think that far….
I know this…
If Larry Hogan, that is the present day Larry Hogan with his policy stands ,is the Republican nominee in 2024?
Then the Republican Party will have undergone a radical transformation and likely fractured its Right Wing (which is the majority of the Party )off and you will have your third party,just not the one you thought you’d have.
If you want someone like Larry Hogan to have a chance in a 2024 GOP primary you should support The Lincoln Project’s goal of not only defeating Trump, but handing an overwhelming defeat to all of his enablers in the Senate.
When I suggested to CG that he should donate to LP he scoffed so….
Why don’t you donate to them?
I am being conservative with my money during a Pandemic.
I’ve donated to Biden.
By being conservative with your money, do you mean that you are borrowing wildly and increasing spending like Trump, GWB and Reagan? We all know how conservatives greatly expanded the national deficit.
I agree with Scott that the most likely path for Hogan winning in 2024 is for the GOP to lose badly in 2020. But that probably won’t do the trick either as the GOP has an incredible ability to justify anything. Some Republicans might argue that Trump lost because he wasn’t sufficiently fascist. Which reminds me, I saw the other day someone interviewing this young adult on why he likes Trump and the guy said he like Trump mostly because he is racist. And he then laughed.
Little to no Chance i agree Jack…
The rightwingnuts ain’t going anywhere after Trump leaves the stage
People elect governors for different reasons than they elect senators or presidents, so I for one am not surprised that Hogan would be elected in blue Maryland. I don’t know Hogan well enough to have a strong opinion on that he can’t win, but my impression is that the GOP is becoming increasingly conservative for someone like Hogan to win nationally.
I’d agree on your view that Hogan would be seen as too moderate for most of his party…
Who knows?
I know. Put your wet dreams away, the racist GOP base is not going to nominate a so-called moderate. Not when Tom Cotton is busy selling hate.
The Lincoln Project has a great “Remember. Their. Names.” commercial out, and I sent them a check. It trashes all the Republican enablers.
A word about spending during a pandemic. It’s our patriotic duty to do what we can, as long as we have a steady source of income, to help others and fight Trump.
For example, we have prepaid our service providers like haircuts and cleaning services because they need to eat too. A little pay it forward goes a long way, and you get it back in the end.
And political contributions are in a class by themselves. If you’re serious about opposing you need to give!
Excellent Keith….
Hope they keep going…..
That Remember Their Names commercial is fantastic.
I’ve been steadfast here.Every time it’s mentioned that Trump did this or that I remind that it’s the Republican Party that has enabled him and who .as we post today ,continues to.
With rare exceptions ,the Republicans in the Senate and House have rolled over for Trump,refusing anything other than such mild criticism as to be meaningless.
Understandable politically of course.Despite what you read here,Republican voters have remained broadly united behind Trump.Lately there have been some anecdotal polling that indicates his “approval “:is down a little among those voters. However, “disapproval” is different from saying one won’t vote for him.
I’m interested in seeing a poll of Republican voters where the question is put thusly ,”Whether you approve of Trump or not,who will you vote for ,Trump or Biden?”
And if that figure is below 80% ,then we might have something to talk about.
I pointed to the Rasmussen Poll (which will be weekly apparently) that has Trump getting the vote of 74% of Republicans. I believe they showed Biden receiving 22% of Republicans.
If polls continue to show Biden pulling 20% of Republicans that is indeed significant and could lead to Senate GOP candidates attempting to distance themselves from the White House.
However that will be tougher than the Republican Senators and Congressman who ran on “no blank check” for the Democratic President in 1996 when Bob Dole was a sure loser.
Dole was an honorable candidate and did not Tweet.
Let us never forget that these Republican voters in Virginia and other places with open primaries and large suburban areas are as big of a reason as any that Joe Biden will be the nominee and Bernie Sanders will not. These voters, who may not love Biden, voted strategically for him in order to stop Sanders and because they want to be rid of Trump.
While james could not bring himself to vote in a primary this year, even I was prepared to vote strategically for Biden in my state’s D primary if needed for the reasons stated above. The matter was largely settled before that though thanks to the previous states.
Well the suburban shift to Democrats–especially in states like Virginia–started in 2017-18.
They are pretty classic “swing voters.” They were Romney voters who might have become Hillary voters or who may be in even larger number now be Biden voters.
In 2024, they could decide they want to have influence in an open Republican nomination contest. They are the kind of people who will not like it Democrats move even further to the left. They just don’t like Trump right now. Democrats will need a plan in the post-Trump political world.
Republicans need to “plan” in the post Trump political world.
Of course.
As I have said many times, I see turbulent times ahead in both parties.
If Ras has Trump’s approval at 74% ?
That IS a 20% point DROP in his support among his base….
THAT IS TROUBLE for him‼️
voting for, not approval, but it’s probably similar.
Once again there’s no statistical evidence thousands of Republicans flooded the Democratic Primary to stop Bernie Sanders. None. No matter how many posts our friend throws against the wall.
Plenty of evidence that educated women are leaving the GOP in droves. Let’s check back in November.
Really? Republican voters in Virginia and other suburban areas propelled Biden to the nomination?
It would be great to see some statistical evidence of this fantasy. I thought it was all those black voters.
Those educated women in the suburbs who will flood the polls this November don’t consider themselves Republicans. Another reason to thank Trump and his enablers. They will vote for Biden to save our Democracy and that’s no fantasy.
There was plenty of evidence to suggest it in the states Biden won per exit polls, county and district totals, etc.
Biden can thank a coalition of black voters and upscale moderate or conservative leaning suburban voters, whether they consider themselves Republicans, former Republicans, or potential future former Republicans. The backlash against Sanders, both as a potential nominee, and potential President contributed in both regards.
You said they were Republicans.
Your problem is you are making assumptions Based on political certainties from eight to ten years ago.
There is no evidence that there suburban voters necessarily consider themselves Republicans any longer or even that they fit the definition of “conservative.”
Typically Republican voters for sure.
Just like Reagan got a lot of typically Democrat voters. They mostly wound up staying.
Will these McCain/Romney type voters stick with Democrats? Time will tell.
And what of all the typical Democrat voters and typical non-voters, who were high on Trump in 2016 and played a part in his win. What do they do when he is gone from the scene? Many probably will stop voting again.
A lot of those educated suburban voters–especially women–will soon only be “Republicans” ibn the same manner that Kim Davis im Kentucky was a “Democrat” in 2015.
It might depend on factors such as if the police get de-funded or not.
For now, in this season, Trump is the best friend you guys could ever hope for.
I should be careful because I was definitely saying the last part four years ago as well.
You would only support peaceful protests, right? We saw that after 2016 too.
I don’t know ANY Democrat who considers Trump a friend. I am not joking when I say I really think our democracy is at risk. If Trump wins again, I think the next four years will be even less normal than the past four years. And I do believe that democracy as we know it will be finished.
But at some level, I do understand why you are sitting this race out. I definitely can understand you being upset that Trump believes there were good people on both sides at the neo-nazi rally. And how for example, supporting a green deal could make the use of energy more expensive such that you would rather sit on the sideline this election, complain, and try to convince us that you are acutally principled.
If Trump wins?
We’re fucked and I DO believe people WILL go to the Streets in protest…BIG TIME!
I am not sitting out and not complaining any less than any of you or anyone else for the most part.
We will all have to agree to have different definitions of “principle.”
We can directly reference the exit polls from this year’s primaries where Biden rolled to victory (I know it seems like eons ago now) and see the participation and results from self-identified Republicans. It’s a pretty clear picture.
Not making assumptions, making stuff up.
Where are those exit polls?
All fantasy.
You can Google them. There was plenty of discussion in the media and even on here after Super Tuesday and regarding states like Virginia how disaffected Republicans helped propel Biden.
One cannot see things going on such as The Lincoln Project or Republicans Against Trump and various groups like that not and not realize they represent a factor this election.
There WAS a worry about GOPer’s possibly voting against Biden….
I do NOT think that ever happened and Biden won handily across the board ….
Remember the virus stuff kicked in by March when Biden began to shut everybody out….
And primaries started getting pushed back….
The Limbaugh inspirted Operation Chaos effort for Sanders did not seem to materialize.
But the typically Republican voters who voted for Biden in the primary did so because they genuinely wanted to prevent Sanders from being nominated and genuinely wanted someone who could beat Trump.
Absolutely no evidence of this claim.
None.
And the Lincoln Project, a group our friend Corey can’t even send $3, is a group of professional Republican consultants who cannot find employment under Trump.
I would be running anti-Trump ads too. But they hardly reflect what happened in a Democratic primary.
Everyone else here knows that Biden benefited from the primary votes of disaffected Republicans.
It shouldn’t be a problem to admit it. It ought to be something for a Democrat to be glad about.
Once again there isn’t one shred of empirical evidence of your claim Corey. Why do you insist on repeating this lie?
There is plenty of evidence that local Republicans were whipping Sanders votes in the open primaries, but none of Republicans going to the polls to cast votes for Biden. Not sure what google you are using.
I must say that I couldn’t agree with Zreebs more, time to take a real stand against Trump and support Biden.
H Keith, nobody else believes you. Disaffected Republicans took a D ballot for the first time and helped Biden. You should be grateful for that.
Sanders would have had a much tougher time against Trump and you would be too preoccupied calling Mrs. Sanders fat online.
NY Times:
“They were disaffected Republicans in affluent Washington suburbs. They were shipyard employees in Norfolk. And they were health care workers in Petersburg.”
Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe of Virginia attributed Democratic turnout in the state to deep disgust with the Trump presidency among Democrats and moderate Republicans.
“We have to give tremendous credit to Donald Trump,” Mr. McAuliffe said. “He has been the single biggest driver to the Democratic Party of Virginia. There are a lot of like-minded Republicans who said, ‘I can’t vote for Trump but you got to give me somebody who we can vote for.’ Biden was always at the top of that list.”
“Electability is something everybody is thinking about and who has the best chance of defeating Trump,” he said. “The idea of risking the nomination to somebody like Bernie Sanders, the concern would be that he wouldn’t have the broad appeal to defeat Donald Trump.”
Tucker Martin, who a decade ago served as a top aide under Gov. Bob McDonnell, Republican of Virginia, appears to fit into this category. Mr. Martin considers himself a Republican, but on Super Tuesday, he cast a ballot for Mr. Biden.
“I am a Never Trumper and I’m out of partisan politics,” Mr. Martin said on Wednesday. “I think for many voters in Virginia, Joe Biden may represent a safe place to go to register their dislike for the current occupant of the White House.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/us/politics/super-tuesday-virginia-voter-turnout.html
So still no statistical proof that suburban Republicans flooded the polls to deliver the nomination to Joe Biden.
Just a rah rah quote from Terry McAuliffe and one from a former Republican appointee in Virginia. Terry always exaggerated.
Where is the polling data, the exit polls, the turnout comparisons? No, just a quote from an old Clinton operative and a retired Republican.
No one believes this fantasy Corey Ray, just like no one believes that the Governor of Mississippi is doing a good job with the virus. His incompetence is killing the most vulnerable of his citizens.
The only real Republican effort to impact the Democratic nomination was the effort for crossover Bernie votes.
They wanted to scream Socialist at someone who self identified as a Socialist.
For the record I would have gladly voted for that Socialist to rid us of this incompetent tyrant. Because that’s what patriots do.
A good example of stating ones “opinion” as established fact.
We all know that sometimes Republicans vote for Democrats and vice versa.So?Thats no “revelation.”
This new “line” though that Democrats must “ cater” to Republicans because some of them voted for Biden is pure BS.
Trump is of their party.If they wanted to vote for the candidate they thought best suited to rid this country and their party of this monstrosity?Good for them.Are they “owed” anything?No.
And as you point out ,there was something called “Operation Chaos,” a Republican effort to crossover and vote for Sanders in an effort to help Trump have a weaker opponent.
For all we know there were just as many,if not more, Republicans doing that?
Hogan goes on the Sunday show circuit….
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) said Sunday that the Republican Party will need to “find a way to appeal to more people” in the future.
The governor told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that after Trump’s presidency, the GOP will have to examine how to become a “bigger tent party.”
“I don’t know what the future holds in November, but I know that the Republican Party is going to be looking at what happens after President Trump, whether that’s in four months or in four years,” Hogan said. “And I think they’re going to be looking to ‘How do we go about becoming a bigger tent party?’”
“We’re going to have to find a way to appeal to more people and have a bigger tent,” he added.
More…
Republicans of all stripes always say that.
The problem?They never do it .
Because?Their “ base” doesn’t want “a big tent .”
That’s why they’re Republicans!
Back to Larry Hogan. His fate lies with the mood of GOP voters in 2023-24.
Maybe they will be ready for a frequent critic of the leader supported by 90% of Republicans four years earlier.
Or maybe those comments of Hogan will be fodder for attack ads by Tom Cotton Josh Hawley or Ted Cruz.
Maybe he runs as an Independent in 2024. Maybe he wins up winning that way.
I wish he would have run as an Independent this year.
If things in this country go as they are now, whether under “new” leadership or not, there will be an even greater appetite to overthrow the entire structure and try something different next time.
Didn’t you predict there would be a huge demand for a third option in 2020?
Other than you and Kanye West it just isn’t there.
I think there is a demand now for a mainstream alternative, you can see that when it is given as an option in the polls, but we both also know that if Sanders or Warren had been nominated, that would have been even bigger.
If Biden is seen as a failure as President and if the Republican Party is in shambles at the time, the opening will never be greater. Time will tell.
Yeah and that demand for a “mainstream alternative” was around in previous election years too.
Why do you think Mike Bloomberg flirted with running as an Independent in 2008, 2012, 2016?
In the end his answer was always the same– “can’t win”.
This year people who care about the future of our country don’t want to gamble with a third party keeping a sane and decent alternative to Trump out of the White House.
Maybe in 2024 there will be a demand for a mainstream third party candidate in the amount that will actually–you know–produce a candidate.
Or you could be back in the embrace of the Republican Party and a nominee not named Trump. One who like 90+% of the party went along with the current administration –but “didn’t mean it”.
And all this desire to chuck the whole two party system will have been a passing fad for you.
Yo CG?
Ya gotta give up the 3rd party running for President thing….
It don’t work….
Mulkolski was a miracle …
It’s understandable CG wants a viable third party candidate now.
What he doesn’t seem to understand is that there is no more demand in now for that than there was when his heroes Mitt Romney and GW Bush were the GOP nominees.
To him it is now situation critical because he cannot stand Trump personally nor the Democratic Party in geberal. But there is nothing to indicate Americans see his own personal crisis as any more of a reason than they had before to support a third party candidate.
Brief but excellent analysis of this whole issue.
The proverbial Third Party chimera…how a Third Party hero will appear ,sweep away the sinful two major parties and restore some mythical AMERICA that never was or is ,haunts the American psyche and likely will continue.
The problem of course?Despite the bravado talk,at the end of the day?Few people really want it rather ,as here, it’s fun to talk about ,knowing deep down ,it’s never going to happen.
So to CG and others who share his fantasy,
Dream on!
Exactly Scott…
MY view on this is that Trump will be gone…
But rightwingnuts, who ARE Trump’s strongest supporters are NOT gonna want Hogan…
Carton might be more their appetite …
I stand by my feeling that Trump isn’t really why the 35-40% are a lock for the big guy…
It’s their aversion to Democrats …
Look at the NYTimes front page…
The hard red virus area’s are Trump Republican area’s mostly…
It’s. culture thing…
And the no ‘Dixie’ flags and Black Lives Matter cool down WILL have a push back in 2022 just like 2010….
Democrats need to be careful….
Who’s Carton ?
Sydney Carton, the hero of A Tale of Two Cities ?