President:
Florida-1: A St Pete Poll of Florida finds Biden up 6 points in the state. This is up from the 1-point edge they had for Biden in May, and is largely due to Biden cutting Trump’s lead with White voters in the state to a perfectly manageable 13 points. The poll also has Biden up 10 points in the usually solidly-Republican SW Florida, in case people forgot what small sample sizes can do to poll crosstabs.
Florida-2: Not to be outdone, Quinnipiac is also out with a poll showing Biden winning Florida, but this time by a gaping 13-points margin, 51-38. That would be the largest margin of victory in a Florida Presidential election since Bush Sr’s 22-point victory in 1988 where he won all but black-majority Gadsen County in Northern Florida. The biggest difference between these two polls seems to be with younger voters, as in this poll Biden is carrying the under-35 voters by well over a 2:1 margin with a huge number of undecideds.
Fox Polls: A new slew of Fox polls are out, and find Biden up 49-40 in Michigan, 51-38 in Minnesota, and 50-39 in Pennsylvania. Unlike some other pollsters, these numbers don’t suggest that Trump lost a lot of ground as the lockdown hit . . . mostly because Fox polls have been bad for Trump even before then.
RNC: Bowing to the considerable pressure and stark realities that Florida is swimming in COVID19, Trump has announced that the RNC in Jacksonville will not really happen, at least not as the sort of major event that conventions usually are. This is a bit of an embarrassing admission for Trump given that he demanded the RNC move out of North Carolina after NC Governor Roy Cooper suggested something similar, but at this point Trump’s already pivoting towards taking the virus more seriously and could do without headlines about how many RNC attendees got infected….