The media says he’s invisible…
Not quite….
He puts something out everyday…..
But Biden isn’t a noise drum beating band…
He’s just the guy who is steady on…..
And despite the worries back in 2016 about how to deal with Trump?
Joe Biden has got it down pat….
Let the big guy just run against HIMSELF….
Now that we’re about midway between the point in March at which Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee and the date of the November election, it’s time to re-evaluate the electability debate in light of how the campaign has proceeded so far.
From one perspective, the electability argument for Biden has been completely vindicated. Biden has opened up a bigger lead over Trump in the national popular vote than any candidate has enjoyed at this stage since Bill Clinton coasted to re-election in 1996, and he is so well-positioned in the electoral college that the battleground map has expanded into the traditional red territory of Arizona, Georgia, and even Texas. The Trump campaign has proven unable as of yet to land a damaging punch on Biden, and has even struggled to find a promising line of attack.
Biden hasn’t been as invisible a candidate as some critics claim, but his campaign activities during the pandemic have not generated much sustained attention. Because journalists do not find the very familiar Biden to be a particularly fruitful source of interesting stories, the national media has been focusing instead almost entirely on Trump, and Trump’s spiraling political problems, since the Democratic nomination wrapped up after Super Tuesday. The relative novelty of nearly every other major potential nominee—Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg—would have attracted more coverage from the media and pulled the spotlight away from Trump much more frequently.
On the other hand, Biden’s current success surely reflects the sinking fortunes of Trump’s presidency more than any particular attribute or skill of his own. Even more than most, this election promises to serve as a referendum on the performance of the incumbent; perhaps any plausible Democratic nominee would have opened up a steady lead after the events of the past few months. As Trump’s approval ratings continue to slide, supporters of Democratic candidates who were deemed less electable in the primaries might justifiably feel in retrospect that 2020 may well turn out to be a missed opportunity. Perhaps the party could have taken the additional risk associated with a non-white-male or more left-wing nominee while still retaining a good chance of victory….
…
Biden wouldn’t have pulled into the strong lead he now holds if he weren’t drawing significant support from previous Republican voters. (According to recent surveys by the New York Times, 14 percent of battleground state residents who supported Trump in 2016 are not supporting him in 2020.) After years of media stories about Trump’s skill in stoking the passionate devotion of his own party, the last few months have forced a widespread journalistic rediscovery of the importance of swing voters and the danger of Trump’s declining popularity among this still-pivotal bloc. And while Biden himself doesn’t inspire as much personal enthusiasm among Democrats as Trump does among many Republicans, overall levels of interest in the election are equal across party lines: Democratic voters are as motivated to vote against the president as Republicans are to vote for him.
There are still four months to go in the campaign, which is still plenty of time for the prevailing dynamic to change. Republicans have become concerned that Biden’s status as a elderly white man who isn’t a socialist means that the familiar playbook of accusing Democrats of supporting left-wing extremism or revolutionary social change won’t work as well against him as it would have against other potential nominees….
Wall Street No Longer Betting on Trump
“Betting markets have turned decisively toward an expected victory for Joe Biden in November — and asset managers at major investment banks are preparing for not only a Biden win, but potentially a Democratic sweep of the Senate and House too,” Axios reports.
image…BusinessInsider
New Open Thread is HERE….
New Open Thread coming in the morning…..
Morning…..
Understatement of the day
Trump campaign advisor Karl Rove said Trump is not doing himself any favors with his tweets attacking Bubba Wallace and defending the Confederate flag.
I love Rove’s freak out on FOX in 2012 insisting Romney could still win.
I’ll always remember that turd for giving me a laugh then.
Better than remembering him putting bigotry on state ballots in 2004.
According to the Showtime Series “The Loudest Voice”, based on a series of articles about Roger Ailes, Rove was specifically directed by Ailes to stall for a short amount of time before Fox News would call OH and thus the election for Obama, because Ailes was preoccupied in his office watching security camera footage from his home where alarms were going off and where he had sent his protege, Joe Lindsley, who that very day decided to run away from Ailes grasp, to check on the house, only to be purposely met by police with their guns drawn.
And of course a television network had never prematurely called an election before…
I just think it was funny because Rove was about to cry.
I think that was just your perspective just like all the Trumpists look back on Election Night 2016 and think they see all sorts of media people crying.
So which Election night was worse for you? 2012 or 2016?
Easily 2012.
I was more surprised in 2016 and pretty flabbergasted, (and lost a hefty bet) but I knew I had a job I had to go to in the morning no matter what and also the Cubs Had Just Won The World Series.
So you viewed Obama being reelected as worse than Trump being elected.
Interesting.
I viewed them both as bad.
The difference was that there was a good option in 2012.
in both cases, I wished for nobody to dire in fires or otherwise.
The racist commenter who went by Kentucky Republican (who you assumed was a woman and attractive based on her keystrokes and your own naivete) inspired that comment of mine that I have often said was wrong to say.
I went to read my “day after” rants on my blog from both elections and I seem to have been more messed up after the 2016 one.
I’d post them here but I’d look self-centered or something.
U.S. Exits the World Health Organization
Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations committee, told CNN that the Trump administration has informed Congress that the president has officially pulled the United States out of the World Health Organization during the middle of a global pandemic.
On the W.H.O. I believe the withdrawal wouldn’t take place until after the Jan. 20 possible change in American government….
Ok….
A pullout can’t actually occur before the middle on next July ….
U may send me almost anything u want me to post as usual CG…
If she sent me pics, does that mean I was catfished??!
Well yesterday was Judd Gregg’s foolishness on the upcoming “Biden coup”–today Oafish Louisiana Senator John Kennedy (a disgrace to the name) claimed if Joe wins we will all need a “fallout shelter”
The last time a Republican lost a second term the party became increasingly paranoid and irrational–focused on cultural issues (Murphy Brown, who protested the Vietnam War) most Americans didn’t care about. That was 1992–only now a less articulate Pat Buchanan is actually the President.
The Jacksonville convention will make the 92 debacle in Houston look calm and centrist by comparison.
Get ready.
If Trump wins a deeper one…
People gonna go batshit crazy in the streets i’d think ….
Anyone can, of course, troll and impersonate on line (as The New Yorker’s famous cartoon caption read “On the Internet, no one knows that you’re a dog), but I’ve never wondered that Kentucky Republican might be male.
Politics 1’s chat pages have been down for over a decade, but I do remember that she asked for, and got, advice there for appropriate music for her upcoming wedding.
Dave Wasserman
@reddistrict
By my estimate, if turnout levels & partisan preferences among 1) non-college whites 2) college whites and 3) non-whites were to remain *constant* from 2016, Biden would flip:
Florida (29 EVs)
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)
…based on demographic change alone.
We DID have a crew there …..
Towards the end the right leaders did get towards the majority of commenters …
And of course Ron has been employed by Republican lawmakers for a while now…
Third party voters in 2016 voting for Biden this year.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/politics/biden-2020-third-party.html?smtyp=cur&smid=fb-nytimes
NJ primary results highlights…
Joe Biden wins …
Amy Kennedy wins 2nd NJ CD Dem primary…
Jeff Van Drew wins the 2Nd Nj CD GOP Primary
More results here….
Booker wins his primary in NJ…
Morning People…
Rasmussen has begun daily horse race tracking. First survey finds Biden up by 10 (Trump getting just 74% of Republicans)
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_jul08
Of course, it will be the policy of this site to ignore Rasmussen Reports data for reasons previously explained.
Yup CG….
It appears to ME that RCP uses Rasmussen’s poll numbers to add to Trump’s approval level numbers…
Ras is usually +5 or more up on the rest of the Trump approval poll numbers…
Right now it’s about +3
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
National polls have been pretty steady for a couple of weeks now, but if anything, Biden’s lead has grown a bit. Our polling average now has him +9.7 nationally. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
More on the trouble Trump is in now….
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Trump’s margins in average of June 2020 Monmouth, Quinnipiac, NYT/Siena, NPR/Marist, Fox and CNN national polls vs. 2016 vote margins (’16 CCES):
Non-college whites: +21 (+24)
Whites w/ college degrees: -22 (-9)
African-Americans: -78 (-80)
Latinos: -31 (-40)
Political Wire says Jon Huntsman is looking at pursuing a write in effort for Governor after his loss to Spencer Cox in the Republican primary.
Seems odd.
It worked for Lisa Murkowski in Alaska.
That’s the only time I can recall that a write in did.
I didn’t really follow this very closely.
Was it particularly bitter or something?
Just seems odd that,absent something weird like that, Huntsman Would entertain such a thing.
Huntsman is rich and entitled. I don’t know if it is coming from him or from his people but apparently the idea is that the more right-wing pro-Trump third place finisher would join forces with him.
The Trumpists in the party hate Cox.
Yeah Huntsman does seem a little weird.
Oh excuse me, “eccentric”–which is weird in Rich Guyese
Rich and entitled? You mean like the old white guy who moved to Utah to be Senator?
The metric here is Cox is supposed to only be Trump lite.
Time for Utah to institute instant runoff. Just like Maine. Susan loves it.
Well I see the Democratic candidate is some law professor and Utah hasn’t elected a Democratic Governor in like thirty five years.
Maybe Huntsman thinks that with dissident Republicans and selling himself to Democrats ,who know their candidate has no chance,as a “moderate” ,he might squeak in?
Seems like quite a long shot though.
Total long shot, and it isn’t clear Huntsman is even behind it.
I find it amusing, but a little sad that Huntsman would be criticized because he once worked for a President of another party. He was actually a good Governor and lots of Democrats in Utah like him (the mother of the God daughter was in his cabinet and she’s a Democrat).
I guess, as the Republican Party continues to shrink into a “white only” party that Utah would be the place the GOP would look to produce future Presidential candidates. They need to make other plans.
How about Mia Love (R-Utah) ?
Although she couldn’t hold onto her own Congressional District.
The Republican Attorney general of Utah who just won renomination is Asian-American.
The Republican nominee for the seat that Mia Love lost, which is expected to be very competitive this year, is also African-American.
Sounds like a interesting district out there…
Here is one example from his time as Lt. Governor, while a lot of very right-wing Republicans might not be fond of Spencer Cox:
https://kutv.com/news/local/why-lt-gov-spencer-cox-apologized-to-lgbt-community-in-wake-of-orlando-shooting
Politics is different these days…
I hope Biden can bring some compromise back as President
I would hope so too, but nice guys finish last.
Democrats for example don’t play politics when it comes to the debt ceiling. Republicans will try to win concessions on the debt ceiling once a Democrat takes the presidency. Why would they suddenly change their stripes? They are rewarded politically by doing so just as they were rewarded politically by being silent regardless of what Trump said or did. If they can’t even say that a foreign country shouldn’t interfere in our elections, do you really expect them to compromise?
Obama had the political skill to explain to the country what was happening. Sadly, I don’t think Biden does. And so I don’t think Biden will be more successful Than Obama at achieving compromise.
We where ALL surprised !
Write in’s seldom work…
He probably can’t believe he lost…
Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) announced that the city has canceled the Texas Republican Party’s in-person state convention in downtown Houston next week, the Houston Chronicle reports….
Politicalwire
Court throws down Trump tax cases in the morning…..
Morning…..
Trump tax decisions will be out in 15 min or so…
First High Court ruling is a surprise in the vote….
Jennifer Bendery Retweeted
Paul Blumenthal
@PaulBlu
Gorsuch continues his pro-American Indian rulings by writing 5-4 with liberals that half of Oklahoma is tribal land for the purposes of criminal law https://supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf/18-9526_9okb.pdf
HOLLY SHIT!….
Trump LOSES his effort to shield his his tax and financial data from Manhattan DA AND the HOUSE….
The voting ain’t even close!
Essentially ,the cases are returned to the lower courts for further adjudication.
You’re not going to be seeing those returns anytime soon.
Morning People….
Trump pardons Roger Stone
also, he said he will sign an Executive Order (a la Obama) to give a path to citizenship to the Dreamers
Enjoy the weekend
Morning people…..
There probably aren’t (post-primary, mid-pandemic & pre-convention) many state polls currently being taken, but it seems that, regardless of the site’s political origin or inclination, none of the projection sites that I visit [ElectProject, E-V.com, RCP & Political Wire) has budged in several weeks when foreseeing the Electoral College, and wavered very little in predicting the U.S. Senate. The sites’ prognostications do differ from each other’s, but not from their own earlier estimates.
Biden steady leads?
Disney open’s the Magic Kingdom….
Looks like Hardly AnyBODY showed up….
It is helpful to know how Republicans think if we are to defeat them this year
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NzDhm808oU4
AP Politics
@AP_Politics
BREAKING: Joe Biden wins the Democratic presidential primary in Louisiana. #APracecall at 8:07 p.m. CDT. #Election2020 #LAprimary
Trump Wanted to Sell Puerto Rico After Hurricane
President Trump raised the possibility of selling hurricane-devastated Puerto Rico to his Secretary of Homeland Security in late 2017, the New York Times reports.
Morning….
Selling off Americans he deems less viable.
How Republican.
This simple story is more outrageous that all of Joe Biden’s past and future “gaffes “put together.
My guess is Republicans response to this will be one of the following
He didn’t say it
Even if he said it he didn’t nean it.
So what if he said it and meant it he’s not a politician
Or they could say all three
Could anyone genuinely say that what Trump said surprised them?
But, since DJT doesn’t believe that Puerto Rico is part of America in the first place, how could he sell it off?
Immigrant goes to America,
Many hellos in America,
Nobody knows in America,
Puerto Rico’s in America!
West Side Story (1957), Act I, scene 5
book by Arthur Laurents
lyrics by Stephen Sondheim
Fox News nighttime host and sometime Trump advisor Tucker Carlsons head writer has been fired by Fox for racist ,sexist comments made under an anonymous name on some extremist sites.
Sure to raise questions as to Carlsons racial remarks in the past.
Was this guy writing them for him?
Yes- he was Carlson’s main writer.
But Tucker Carlson’s show is I think the highest rated show on television. The GOP loves this stuff. They just prefer that the racism be hidden and not be out in the open. Because latent racism sells, but overt racism Might cause some Republicans to express concern.
Biden is ahead in every state on the US Atlantic coast – except for South Carolina.
Every state Biden has a +3% OVER Trump is one Biden has a chance…
Well, James, according to E-V.com, those states (where Biden – Trump is between 1% and 5%) are:
Minnesota 10 49% 44% 5%
Arizona 11 47% 42% 5%
N. Carolina 15 50% 46% 4%
Nevada 6 44% 41% 3%
Georgia 16 48% 45% 3%
Ohio 18 46% 45% 1%
Last two on the list in my view are NOT certain….
Of course if Biden gets North Carolina he’s a winner with a nice margin
Biden MUST be at or ABOVE 300 EV’s with his win to corral Trump and Co.
Two Texas polls out at RCP.…
Texas: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Trump 46, Biden 45 Trump +1
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Dallas Morning News Trump 43, Biden 48 Biden +5
AP Politics
@AP_Politics
·
BREAKING: Joe Biden wins the Democratic presidential primary in Puerto Rico. #APracecall at 4:00 p.m. AST. #Election2020 #PRprimary
Regarding Electoral Votes (although I’m likely just as cautious as you, and as disinclined to a cocksureness that would tempt Providence, which is where I live):
According to parts of that table that I did not post above, if Biden wins Florida and all the more-favourable states, he just squeaks past Trump, 272-266. Should Trump win Florida and all the states currently more favourable than Florida to Trump, he wins the Electoral College more handily, 295-243.
Georgia (Clinton 1992) and Ohio (Obama 2008 & 2012) are certainly not states to be taken for granted,
but even without them but with the more favourable states, Biden beats Trump 304-224. With Georgia and Ohio, Biden wins 368-170.
Wisconsin 10 48% 39% 9% 243
Florida 29 49% 40% 9% 272
New Hampshire 4 49% 42% 7% 276
Michigan 16 50% 44% 6% 292
Minnesota 10 49% 44% 5% 302
Arizona 11 47% 42% 5% 313
N. Carolina 15 50% 46% 4% 328
Nevada 6 44% 41% 3% 334
Georgia 16 48% 45% 3% 350
Ohio 18 46% 45% 1% 368
I keep repeating ….
Biden MUST get at LEAST 300 EV’s ….
He CANNOT have a close win….
Trump would try a Gore vs Bush II….
A decisive win is a MUST for Biden…
Biden’s also ahead in all the Pacific states [save Alaska],
All of the Southwest [save Utah], and
All of the Great Lakes states [save Indiana].
On the other hand, he’s behind in all the Gulf Coast states [save Florida]
https://www.electoral-vote.com/
With Covid-19 reducing my entertainment options and socializing, I am currently watching the House of Cards series.
Any good recommendations on what to watch after that?
I went they all the Star Wars movies and cartoon’s…
Try the ESPN Last Dance Jorden series…
EXCELLENT!
I also watched the 2008/2009 economic crash special on vice i think…
ECEKKENT!
House of Cards was good campy entertainment the first few seasons but that last one was a real stinker.
If you are looking at Netfix series Ozark is really good.
Just started watching The Politician as well.
Watch the British version of House of Cards or try Man in the High Castle on Amazon (it will keep you busy for weeks).
Yeah- Ozark was what I was watching before a House of Cards. I liked it too.
Morning people….
We’ll be feature Robert Mueller’s second time up at bat shortly….
We hope the former Marine with stand up this time….
Gonna be some scary shit coining out about Trump and the Russians…
Gonna be ANOTHER rough week for the big guy…
In the MOE …But?
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Montana finds Steve Bullock (D) leading Sen. Steve Daines (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 44%.
Bullock is the most popular politician in the state with a 50% to 38% approval.
In the presidential race, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden, 51% to 42%.
Politicalwire…
More under currents running against a Trump in surprising place…
A new Greenberg Quinlin Rosner (D) poll in Nebraska’s second congressional district finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 51% to 44%.
In the congressional race, challenger Kara Eastman (D) just beats out Rep. Don Bacon (R) 50% to 49%.
Politicalwire…
I sometimes think I might retire in the Arkansas Ozark mountains. I have never been there, so it will be a vacation destination in the next few years.
By the time you retire there, Zreebs, perhaps there will be memorial to all those super-spreaders who crowded together for the holidays at Lake of the Ozarks resorts.
The Ozarks is quite a big area – in 4 states: AR, MO, OK and KS. I think that the Ozark party was in Missouri. Scott can correct me if I am wrong, but I’m pretty sure that most of southern Missouri is in the Ozarks.
Yes Lake of the Ozarks–which is in Missouri– was the setting of the Memorial Day party. It’s also the setting of the Netflix series (though the show is actually filmed in Georgia). I’ve never heard that Kansas contains a portion of the Ozarks, but after looking at the Wikipedia entry on the region I see it lists a very small portion of the southeastern tip of Kansas as part of the area deemed “Ozarks”. Most people just consider Missouri and Arkansas as being the states that contain the Ozark “mountains”–(bit of an insult to real mountains to call them such).
The Lake of the Ozarks is a popular weekend destination for those in the St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas as it’s only a few hours drive to each. The lake region is fast growing with a fair amount of retirees moving there and is actually more “built up” than it is portrayed in the Netflix series. The more remote, rugged, and scenic parts of the Ozarks are to the south of the Lake in southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.
Eureka Springs, Arkansas is a very beautiful area and would definitely be worth a visit. I haven’t been there in several years but it is becoming known as an artsy and progressive island in red Arkansas.
Driving through eastern Oklahoma is a horribly boring drive except to see the Ozark mountains to the East. Maybe it was because most of Oklahoma was so bAd that I became intrigued by the Ozarks. That and because an old friend of mine went hiking there and loved it.
I love the mountains, they don’t have to be huge for me to enjoy them. There is NOTHING more relaxing to me than hiking in the mountains. And throw in a waterfall or two, ahhh..
If they’re to your taste, you can get all five seasons (156 episodes) of The adventure of Rocky and Bullwinkle & Friends [later just The Bullwinkle Show] on DVD for a very reasonable $42 from Amazon.com. Or you can get individual seasons for about $12 or $14.
I’m trying to ration my viewing (the opposite of binge-watching) both to keep some freshness in the gags, puns and jokes and to stretch out the pleasure.
Needless to say, there’s all kinds of snide political and social commentary included (remember Pottsylvania?) Jay Ward was more of a conservative or libertarian while his colleague Bill Scott leaned more to the liberal side, so the political satire they cooked up together was not just propaganda.
The 2001 movie featuring René Russo (as Natasha Fatale) and Robert De Niro (less convincingly as Fearless Leader) was surprisingly good and can be had from Amazon for at little as $6.
I hadn’t watched Rocky and Bullwinkle since grammar school, and I didn’t know it had a political component – other than the obvious Cold War theme.
Thanks to all for your suggestions on what to watch during the pandemic.
I actually spent this past weekend in the eastern end of the Ozark hills, in an area just an hour and a half south of my home with some sparkling cool streams and great hiking trails.
As beautiful as nature is there though when I had to head inside a gas station and Dollar General store there were pretty close to zero people in masks (other than myself). It’s a different story in the STL metro area where masks are required.
We’re up in Seattle to see friends who have been married for 25 years. They cancelled the big party. First trip since this started and we drove up of course, stayed at an Air B&B and only had outdoor events with no more than four people. It’s actually tough not to hug old friends.
The whole City wears masks, even outdoors. Only runners in the park were without masks, and they stayed away from people.
We will stay at the same hotel tonight that we stayed at on the way up in Ashland Oregon (it’s a thirteen hour drive over two days) and that town was totally masked when we stopped. Once again, masks required and outdoor dining.
It’s the new norm, no airplanes or trains. Only car transportation for two.
One interesting thing, both Seattle and Ashland have “Black Lives Matter” signs on lawns and in windows everywhere you look, and Ashland is almost totally white that we could see.
We have our 864511032020 bumper sticker on our car. Great conversation starter.
The mask thing is the same in the NYC metro area mostly….
There had been some slippage during the July 4 weekend with parties and BBQ’s…
Well, I still have several year years before I retire, so by then hopefully Covid-9 will be gone. Who knows?
Pretty much everyone in NJ is wearing a mask. Less so in Illinois – although people social distance. Driving through Indiana though I was disgusted at the Almost contempt that people there have for face covering. Driving through Ohio was somewhat encouraging that a red state can actually care about people. Gov DeWine has handled the pandemic well.
The Idiot of the day award goes to Republican Sen Thom Tillis of NC, where the pandemic is raging.
He incongruously pronounced that he was going to be re-elected because people will “remember how better their lives were back in February.”
Note to future candidates… Don’t hire his campaign strategist!
Sounds even stupider and more malaprop than Education Sec. Betsy DeVos giving transparently uninformed and blitheringly idiotic answers on Sunday’s talk shows about as comfortably as the deer or moose facing headlights.
[For example, having got her job as a champion of school vouchers, her message for parents too fearful to send their children to re-opened public schools is that they should have school choice.]
Trump’s re-election strategists aren’t doing their candidate much good by sending her out while hiding and disparaging Dr Fauci.
I said this week is gonna be a rough one forTrump….
Brian Stelter…
A NY judge has lifted the restraining order that barred Mary Trump from speaking publicly about her new book, per her attorney @BoutrousTed. He says the First Amendment “forbids prior restraints because they are intolerable infringements on the right to participate in democracy.”
Interesting question for political junkies only. What state is Trump most likely to do better than in 2016?
My guess is ND. (I haven’t looked at polling)
Utah–since Trump only won 45% there in 2016. Without Evan McMullin or any real third party vote he is almost certain to win a majority there this year–though it may be fairly close. For Utah at least.
We ALL KNOW if Biden wins Texas?
He’s looking at 400 EV’s and Trump having the door shut on ANY prayer of contesting the election…