Remember when the consensus was the Democrats had NO chance of dislodging a Republican US Senate majority?
That’s Gone…
It might appear that thanks to Donald Trump?
Democrats could control the Presidency and Congress aa soon as 6 months from now….
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, an independent online newsletter, shifted a handful of Senate races on Thursday in favor of Democrats, with the November general election just 103 days away.
With the relabeling came a prediction: that Democrats, who control the House, will win back control of the Senate in November.
Cook switched GOP Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa) and David Perdue‘s (Ga.) matchups against Democratic challengers from “lean Republican” to a “toss-up,” while Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) had her race against former astronaut Mark Kelly (D) changed from “toss-up” to “lean Democratic.”
Jon Ossoff, who will challenge Perdue, said last week that internal polling done by Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group showed him in a dead heat with the Republican senator, 45-44.
Additionally, Democratic Sen. Tina Smith (Minn.) had her race changed from “lean Democratic” to “solid Democratic.” The race for retiring Sen. Tom Udall‘s (D-N.M.) seat between Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D) and Republican Mark Ronchetti was also shifted from “lean Democratic” to “solid Democratic.”
For Democrats to regain control of the Senate in November, they need to either win four seats if presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden wins, or five seats if he loses.
The independent report notes that the Senate hasn’t been flipped outright during a presidential election year since 1980, when former President Ronald Reagan (R) beat former President Jimmy Carter (D).
Last week, Cook shifted 20 House races towards Democrats as well. Overall, FiveThiryEight’s average of all congressional races show Democrats with an 8-point lead, 49-41….
Interesting 538 podcast …..
Confidence Interval: Democrats Could Win 60 Seats In The Senate
That seems literally impossible, even if they keep Alabama. What’s their math? The rosiest of scenarios for Democrats in my mind gets them a gain of 11.
60 seats is very unlikely. Would have to hold on to Jones seat in Alabama (currently Lean R in Cook’s Report), win all the toss-ups, the lean Rs and pick off a couple of the Likely Rs (Sullivan, McConnell, Graham or Cornyn).
Impossible? N0, but I don’t see states that are going to vote for Trump by double digits voting for Democratic Senators.
The caveat is if Trump continues to slide where states that he should win going away wind up as nail biters
It would also involve winning Kansas, which is only going to be on the table if the Republicans nominate Kobach.
Alaska is perhaps the biggest stretch although the “Democrat” there is technically running as an Independent. I do not think there will ever be a Senator Gross.
There used to be a Congressman Gross…
H.R. Gross (R- Iowa)
Gross , a Real fiscal conservative ,unlike the charlatans of today who claim that mantle ,opposed almost all increases in federal spending and would often pen op ed pieces in which the alleged victim of fiscal waste was an
“Uncle Sap”( née Sam)
Horrible ballot name
Back in the sixties,”gross”was not a term used that much .
HR served in the fifties and sixtiesAs I recall he retired in the early seventies.
In German it just means “large”
and 144… such as a horrible 144K Coronavirus deaths in the US as of right now
Gross Weight?
If he gets there maybe he can work on a bipartisan effort with the Senator from Idaho
The Gross-Crapo bill
More likely will be the Crapo- Schatz Bill
Democrats Ain’t gonna give Schumer and Biden a SUPER 60 seat majority…
TGAT would be 400 EV Biden win…
I think a net gain of 5 is probably the most realistic but still rosy scenario.
My Race of the Day starts Sunday with Alabama…
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis ,who went full Trump shortly after Trump demanded that states start “opening up” even as health experts warned that a too early opening could spike infection numbers,has suffered a remarkable 31 point drop in his approval rating per Quinnipiac Poll.
DeSantis ,who refused to close beaches or mandate Mask wearing ,has an upside down 41/52 Approval/Disapproval rating .
Since DeSantis actions mirrored Trumps demands , such does not bode well for Trump in a state ,which if not “must win,”comes very close.
If Trump loses Florida he would have to win every other state currently classified as toss up and hold on to each and every one of the “blue wall” states that put him in office in 2016–Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
Basically impossible.
I expect that similiar news awaits Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Georgia Governor Brian Kemp..
Too bad none of these governors are up for reelection this year. My governor is and even before he made his comment this week that schools need to open up and kids who get COVID will “get over it” he was in a statistical tie for reelection.
“What about” the Governor of California? Record number of cases there now after re-opening.
Maybe Trump will win California!
Nah, the illegals will steal it from him.
He could send those federal “law enforcement “people into California and have all those illegals snatched off the streets(or maybe anyone who “looks “ Hispanic They can sort it out later)?
Someone needs to ask Kayleigh McEnany why that isn’t being done!
Mar-A-Lago could use the seasonal help.
No successful Republican presidential candidate has lost Florida since Calvin Coolidge in 1924 (at the end of the post-Reconstruction Solid South). That’s a string of 23 presidential elections so far.
Two unsuccessful Republicans have also carried Florida — Nixon in 1960 and Geo. H.W. Bush in 1992.
And the Florida electorate has not only swelled but vastly changed is nature since the Twenties. (She now has the third-largest population in the country, behind California and Texas, but ahead of New York.)
If Biden wins Florida this fall he will be the first Democrat to have won the state three times as a national candidate since FDR.
Nixon won it 5 times and GHW Bush 4.
Martha McSally seems likely to have the “honor” to have served in the Senate despite losing both of her state’s seats.
I know that quite a few politicians have lost bids for both of their state’s seats in the US Senate. But I wonder when the last time that happened to a person who also served as a US Senator?
Dean Barkley of Minnesota?
Pretty sure Bernie Sanders back in the day
John Kennedy of Louisiana lost races for both LA Senate seats before being elected. He lost one as a Democrat and one as a Republican.
Yeah Sanders, Barkley and Kennedy all lost campaigns for both their state’s senate seats and also served in the US Senate.
Barkley is the only one that was never actually elected to the body of those three–being appointed by Jesse Ventura to fill the last remaining weeks of the late Paul Wellstone’s term.
McSally seems likely to join in that distinction.
The esteemed Roland Burris of Illinois lost one Senate seat and 26 years later was forced to abandon a bid for the other “f’in golden” one as the appointed incumbent
All of which will be enshrined on his mausoleum
While it was for the same specific seat, George H.W. Bush twice lost U.S. Senate elections in Texas, only to one day serve as the President of the Senate.
In fact, no Republican since Coolidge has won the White House without carrying BOTH Ohio and Florida.
Nixon carried both states in 1960 and yet still lost.
GHW Bush carried Florida in 1992 but not the Electoral College.
Dewey won Ohio in 1944 but not the White House..
If the polling numbers remain basically like they continue to be?
And they are even close to the results?
The political wreckage for Trump and GOPer’s IS gonna be substantial
I should have mentioned this earlier in the discussion about Senatorial losers, but at least one Democrat and one Republican have won and held both of a state’s Senate seats, before and after running for President:
* Barry Goldwater (R, Ariz.: Class I 1953-65 & Class III [Carl Hayden’s seat] 1969-87) and
* Hubert Humphrey (DFL, Minn.: Class II 1949-64 & Class I [Gene McCarthy’s seat] 1971-78 ,[died]).
Had Walter Mondale won Paul Wellstone’s seat, he would have occupied the same one he’d held when succeeding Humphrey in 1965, when HHH became LBJ’s VP.
And unlike in the days of the Solid South (when the country was polarized but in a different way), it’s now next-to-impossible for either party to hold a filibuster-proof 60 seats.
Back in the day, the G.O.P. occasionally held 2/3 or even 3/4 of the Senate when the rest of the country solidified against the Solid South. Later, FDR*, JFK & LBJ could gain at least a theoretical 3/5 of the Senate by counting both the Northern Democrats and the still-numerous Dixiecrats.
[In 1937-38 an astonishing coalition of 75 Democrats and 4 friendly independents (Prog., FLP & Geo. Norris) faced a tiny caucus of only 17 Republicans. However, FDR became so frustrated by the combined legislative opposition of that G.O.P. caucus and many Southern Democrats (who had issued their own Conservative Manifesto) that he toured the South in a totally-unsuccessful attempt to deny re-election to the conservative Dixiecrats.]
But after the break-up of the Solid South, it became nearly impossible for either party to win 60 (not to speak of an inconceivable 75) Senate seats. A very rare exception was Barack Obama’s first Congress, that only fleetingly held a 60 Democratic Senators, only just enough to pass a severely-weakened form of the ACA. Here are the very complicated explanatory footnotes that I wrote for the Wikipedia article on Party divisions of United States Congresses:
*24. From January 27 to April 28, 2009, when Senator Arlen Specter (R-Pennsylvania) joined the Democratic caucus, there were 56 Democratic Senators, 41 Republicans, two independents and one undecided seat in Minnesota. That vacancy was filled as an additional Democratic seat on July 7, 2009, with the swearing-in of Al Franken, bringing the totals to 58 Democrats, 40 Republicans and 2 independents. Seven weeks later, on August 25, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) died, lowering the Democratic total to 57 for a month until Paul G. Kirk Jr. (D) was appointed and sworn in as Sen. Kennedy’s interim replacement on September 25, 2009. Just over four months later, on February 4, 2010, Scott Brown (R) who had won a special election for the seat, succeeded Paul Kirk, returning the Republican caucus to 41, and again reducing the Democratic caucus to 57 plus two independents. [The Democratic caucus dropped again briefly to 56 in the 18 days between the death of Sen. Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia) on June 28, 2010 and the seating of his interim successor, Carte Goodwin (also D) on July 16.] The appointed Democratic Senator from Illinois, Roland Burris was succeeded on November 29, 2010 by Mark Kirk, a Republican elected earlier that month, once again dropping the Democratic caucus to 56 with 2 independents facing 42 Republicans for the last month of the 111th Congress. December 2011 Congressional Directory, page 324
*25. From January 3 to April 28, 2009, prior to Senator Arlen Specter’s switch to the Democratic Party, there were 41 Republican Senators. The Republican caucus returned to 41 on February 4, 2010, with the swearing in of Scott Brown (R-Mass.) to fill the Democratic seat of Edward Kennedy and Paul Kirk. After Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) replaced Roland Burris as Senator from Illinois on November 29, 2010, the Senate in the last month of the 111th Congress stood at 42 Republicans, 56 Democrats and 2 independents.
Slade Gorton of Washington was elected to, and unseated from, both of his state’s Senate seats.
John Chafee (R-R.I.) ran quixotically against Dem. Sen. Claiborne Pell in 1972 but won the other seat when Dem. Sen. John O. Pastore retired in 1976.
Pell only left office in 1997 upon his retirement from six terms, having first been elected in 1960 upon the retirement of Theodore Francis Green. Jack Reed now holds that seat.