With each week it looks more like the Democrats will win the Presidency and the US Senate allowing a President Biden to be able to work to undo a lot of Donald Trump’s chaotic fours years in office ….
In the race to capture the Senate, the playing field has become increasingly competitive or even advantageous for Democratic candidates across the country, with recent polls, ratings changes and fundraising totals all showing the GOP’s majority in the upper chamber in serious jeopardy.
KEY FACTS
Politico shifted its ratings for two critical races, Montana and Iowa, from leaning Republican to tossup.
The ratings changes were likely based in large part on recent polls that show Democrat Theresa Greenfield leading Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) by 2 points–after a Selzer poll in June put her up by 3 points–and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock leading Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) by 3 points.
Other vulnerable GOP incumbents are faring scarcely better, with a Public Policy Polling poll putting Democrat Sara Gideon ahead of Sen. Susan Collins (R-Me.) by 4 points and a CNBC poll giving Democrat Cal Cunningham a lead of 10 points over Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).
Polls also consistently show Sen. McSally (R-Ariz) trailing Democrat Mark Kelly, and Sen. Cory Garnder (R-Colo.) falling behind former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, two states that have been rapidly trending towards Democrats in recent cycles.
BIG NUMBER
$9 million. Several Democratic challengers have brought in staggering fundraising sums in the second quarter of 2020. Gideon raised $9 million to Collins’ $3 million, while Bullock raised $7.7 million and Cunningham raised $7.4 million.
TANGENT
One Senate race that may go against the grain is Alabama. Democratic incumbent Doug Jones is facing steep reelection odds after narrowly capturing his seat in a 2017 special election when his opponent, Roy Moore, was accused of sexual misconduct of minors….
image…Forbes/Getty
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I am also convinced that the difference between, say, 52 and 53 Democratic senate seats could matter. And state legislative races could matter a lot given the impact on redistricting.
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Cisko (not that one, the other one)
@NotSisko
·
Replying to
@NateSilver538
Every senate seat beyond 51 will ensure that Joe Manchin is just a little less powerful in 2021.
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Paul Rickter
@rickterp
Replying to
@NateSilver538
At least 51 is essential. I’m convinced that if it’s 50-50 with Biden’s veep breaking ties, the pressure on Manchin to flip will be intense.
I would be surprised if Joe Manchin were to switch parties.
He was just re-elected in 2018 in a tough re-election fight where he breezily brushed back questions as to whether he might lose in Republican West Virginia with “I don’t give a shit.”
I think Manchin enjoys his role as the conservative Democrat better than he would a role as the most liberal Republican.
Manchin couldn’t survive a primary in West Virginia if he were to be the Senate’s most liberal Republican.
I know and that’s why I don’t see him switching.
While he is “conservative “ for a Democrat,some of his positions wouldn’t be shared by any Republican Senators
Sabato people adds to the good news for Democrats and Chuck Schumer for the US Senate…
But voice the same caution I see for Democrats in the 2022 Midterms….
— The Constitution divides the Senate into three “classes” that face the voters on six-year cycles. Under today’s political dynamics, the class that faced the voters in 2018 was favorable to the Republicans, while the class that faces the voters in 2020 is favorable to the Democrats.
— What about the class that faces the voters in 2022? Our analysis shows that this class is also favorable to the Democrats.
— If the Democrats manage to seize the Senate majority in 2020, the relatively pro-Democratic map in 2022 could insulate the party somewhat if Joe Biden is elected president and a midterm backlash benefiting the GOP emerges.
— The Democrats will need to run up the score in the Senate in both 2020 and 2022 if they are going to keep the majority past the 2024 elections, when the Republicans benefit from an extremely favorable map for their party.
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