Everybody could wrong….
And?
This time?
Everybody could be RIGHT….
It ain’t 2016….
Joe Biden isn’t Hillary Clinton….
Donald Trump NOW has record to defend….
And he isn’t doing very well at it and he seems recklessly pushing to make it worst….
Inside Elections has a new Electoral College forecast with Joe Biden beating Donald Trump 319 to 188 and just 33 electoral votes still a Toss Up.
“While the precise cause can be argued, Trump’s job rating has been on a precipitous decline over the last two months, not only putting a second term increasingly out of reach but potentially wreaking havoc on GOP candidates down the ballot…”
“The biggest mistake of 2016 was not underestimating Trump’s support but a failure of imagination. Too many people couldn’t comprehend how he could win. Four years later, too many people can’t comprehend how he could lose and underestimate how far he could possibly fall.”
For comparison, the consensus electoral map has Biden leading 320 to 125 with 93 electoral votes still a Toss Up….
https://www.electoral-vote.com/ [an objective state-survey aggregator run by a Democrat] has an even more staggering Biden landslide of 406 to 132 for Trump.
According to Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Pres. Elections, the only Democrats to win more than 400 electoral votes were FDR (all 4 elections), LBJ in 1964 [486-52] and Woodrow Wilson in 1912 only [435] against a hopelessly divided opposition [TR 88, Taft 8, and Debs 0]. *
Below 400 Electors, the highest Democratic winners were Bill Clinton (370 in 1992 & 379 in 1996) and Barack Obama (365 in 2008 & 332 in 2012).
On the Republican side, the presidents who won more than 400 Electoral votes were Ike, Nixon [1972 only], Reagan, GHW Bush [1988 only] and Harding-Coolidge-Hoover in the 1920’s.
* [However, when T.R. declined the Progressive nomination in 1916, the G.O.P. united behind Charles Evans Hughes and the Socialists did not run Gene Debs, then Wilson’s Electoral College margin was a far more modest 277-254, not decided until the late-reporting California’s 13 votes had been decided for Wilson (46,7%-46.3%); had only 2,000 Wilson voters out of a million California voters instead voted for Hughes, the College would have split 264-267 for Hughes.)
Biden needs to seriously be near Clinton and his former boss Obama
Hi James B. Its been some years since i been on ur website. I remember out old Politics1 days if i recall correctly
‘so goes Ohio?’
Is Ohio In Play?
New York Times: “Ohio offers Democrats the possibility of seizing on suburban gains they have made in the Trump era, while restoring parts of the old Obama coalition…. In a state where decades of deindustrialization have created long-term anxiety about jobs, the reality behind Mr. Trump’s unmet promises to restore steel, coal and other industrial sectors through trade wars is also being put to the test — a dynamic that could extend to other states across the Midwest.”
“For all the optimism of Democrats, though, the Buckeye State just might be an illusion in the mists. … Mr. Biden hasn’t named an Ohio state director, frustrating local Democratic officials. The Ohio Democratic Party is so financially stretched it sought over $333,000 from the federal coronavirus relief package to help meet its payroll.”
The consensus electoral map has Ohio as a Toss Up.
be near as in physically?
I doubt Bill Clinton (or Hillary) would be visible at all in this campaign, even if there was not social distancing.
If meant in another context, all “Electoral College is evil” folks would have to remember that Bill Clinton got just 43% of the vote.
No CG….
Near in EV’s
But, rather more importantly, here are the states that E-V.com sees switching to D from Trump in 1916.
Arizona, Georgia and Texas voted against Obama in 2008 & 2012.
North Carolina voted for Obama in 2008 but for Romney in 2012.
Texas, now the second most-populous state in the Union, has not voted for a Democratic presidential ticket since Carter-Mondale in 1976 [but not 1980].
Dem pickups vs. 2016: AZ FL GA MI NC OH PA TX WI
GOP pickups vs. 2016: (None)
Yo DSD!
If Biden gets Georgia ?
He’s in the 400 territory!
That could be a song.
Why are there so many songs about Georgia?
I guess CG (CGa?), that it’s just because that Old Sweet Song keeps Georgia, [Georgia] on everyone’s mind.
Beyond any conspicuous shunning or snubbing, Joe Biden would be stark raving mad to get close to Hillary Clinton. Millions (perhaps tens of millions) of Trump voters in 2016 strongly disliked Donald Trump, but loathed HRC enough to vote R.
See this video (independently self-made, but shared by “Republican Voters Against Trump” and shortly to appear on a Lincoln Project station near you):
https://twitter.com/RVAT2020/status/1282780931686723585
Bill Clinton is pretty much finished as a valuable political asset with the assent of the #metoo movement.
*ascent?
Freudian slip
That video is NSFW but since I’ve been working at home over three months now, I guess it was…
He should have ended his statement by saying, “put the f’ing mask on your f’ing face.”
And what, exactly, would Joe Biden gain by embracing Bill Clinton?
After the pre-primary debates and the campaign against Sanders and Warren, Joe Biden has absolutely no problem establishing his position among moderates (even if he wasn’t quite so conservative as Steve Bullock or John Delaney).
Two of Biden’s challenges are to (1) reassure progressive Democrats and (2) to excite them enough that they’ll vote and work for him.
Bill Clinton doesn’t help him with either.
Few will remember Clinton’s positive achievements (such as peace in the Balkans). What they’re far more likely to recall are Oklahoma City, Waco, the Internet Bubble, the failure of Hillarycare, Newt Gingrich’s hostile takeover of Congress, and most of all Whitewater — which, especially in the #MeToo era, left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.
http://www.ElectionProjection.com [the Blogging Caesar’s conservative but objective mirror of the liberal but also objective http://www.Electoral-Vote.com], has also bumped up Biden from 334-204 to 350-108.
EP lists historically-blue Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as Moderate Biden gains, and Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina & the 2nd District of Nebraska as weak Biden gains. Texas is rated, however, as weak Trump.
Taegan Goddard’s electoral-college map now gives 320 votes to Biden instead of 280.
Jack’s traditionally right…
Still 3 1/2 months out but Trump just isn’t gonna let up on politically fucking himself..
He just doesn’t have the ability to do it…
What exactly am I “traditionally right” about?
** correction: Election Projection now foresees a split of 350-188 (not 350-108).
Electoral vote.com has Biden over 400 electoral votes. If biden does that its been like 56 years since a dem cleared that amount. LBJ’s 486 electoral votes 1964
new development:
My mother is suddenly crazy about Andrew Cuomo and has started recording his briefings. She asked me if there was any chance he could replace Biden.
No….
But Cuomo does well in NY due too his virus actions…
180 degree’s from Trump’s hand-off approach …
I don’t like the guy….
But he DOES do VERY well come election time….(77% or so now favoribity)
His political strength is in downstate NYC and Long Island
Wiki….
There is NO term limit for NY Governor…
Cuomo IS a bricks and mortar guy ….
Pushed thru a large amount big building projects around the state…
Rasmussen effect on polling….
General Election: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Biden 51, Trump 40 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D)* Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen ReportsBiden 47, Trump 44 Biden +3
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 52, Trump 37 Biden +15
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
Real Clear Politics
Cuomo’s major achilles down the road will be bail reform…Now the Rise in Crime and Especially in deadly shootings in NYC and neighboring counties isn’t all related to Bail Reform (obviously COVID, Unemployment, Lack of Police Activity due to COVID (arrests way way down), the protests taking police off the beat, the removal of the anti-crime units, opportunists taking advantage to settle scores, etc) but people only usually see one reason and run with it…Bail Reform will be largely to blame for the spike in crime and that was Cuomo’s baby…Correlation is not Causation, but that’s not ow it plays out…
But he has done better in the Virus area than most other governors and he has lead in a lot of ways…And I happen to agree with James, I don’t particularly like the guy either something about him is off putting, and like I always say personality matters a lot in these elections because often times the presidency is a popularity contest.
Yeah that huge Project in the Hudson Yard is going to be a disaster, the prices for Manhattan real estate are going to take a nose dive (both residential and commercial) because of the after effects of Covid…living in a city of 9 million isn’t that appealing when you are more likely to get a COVID like illness passed onto you.