This is the second post I’m doing on this….
It probably won’t be the last….
Biden is ahead by double digits in almost every national poll a little more than 4 months out from the vote…
If there wasn’t a 2016 vote?
We’d all be writing Donald Trump off….
But a few of us keep looking under the political hood and making sure we mention that Biden’s lead in national polls isn’t the answer …..
WHERE Joe Biden is leading IS….
And his leads in places he needs are there now….
But could soften by October….
Voters needed in key states FOR Biden could think he has the win and not show up…..
“You still run a race like you’re behind. But the truth of the matter is we’re not behind,” he added. “Doesn’t matter if it’s two up, five up, or 10 up, the polls all show us increasing . . . the trend is good for us.”
Still, while Biden at this point is faring better against Trump than Clinton did, the next few months hold challenges for him. He has failed so far to excite Latinos, a fast-growing electoral bloc, and some young black voters still view him skeptically. Trump retains a solid base of supporters. Two weeks ago, an unexpectedly favorable employment report raised the specter of a boosted economy, one area where Trump continues to poll better than Biden.
But Biden also has been helped by factors outside his control: Trump, who unlike in 2016 has a record to be measured against, has not yet found a line of attack that has resonated with voters. And the president is facing not only Democrats in whom he inspires unprecedented anger but a revolt among Republicans, some of whom have formed anti-Trump networks that are airing ads against him.
On Thursday, Biden launched a $15 million advertising campaign targeting many of the swing states. Some of the ads will air on Fox News and during NASCAR races, aiming to win over former Obama voters who switched to Trump four years ago. English- and Spanish-language ads will air in key markets in Florida, where Trump’s campaign is planning to hold rallies and parties as part of his nominating convention.
Democrats in several key states believe Trump will likely turn out his unshakable supporters. In their view, the key to a Biden victory rests in turning out Democratic voters who sat out of the 2016 election.
“He’s got a very aggressive, loyal base. But that base on its own, I don’t think, is enough,” Brandon Dillon, a former Democratic Party chairman in Michigan, said of the president. “His path is complacency among Democratic voters and independents who despise him — that they think this is somehow in the bag. That’s the biggest threat.”…