And he’s ahead where he needs to be….
But NOT by nearly enough to be resting on his lead like Hillary Clinton did four years ago….
It’s those swing states that REALLY count….
And to expect Biden wins in some of the Red states that he’s close or ahead in now is to be dreaming…..
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I guess one thing that really stands out here is that it doesn’t take that much to go from a massive Biden Electoral College landslide (if he wins everywhere on the list below, that’s 413 EV) to a narrow Biden loss (he’s only ahead 3.7 points in the tipping-point state).
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
National: Biden +7.6 CO: Biden +15.6 ME: Biden +12.4 VA: Biden +9.5 MI: Biden +8.2 NE-2: Biden +7.4 NH: Biden +6.6 WI: Biden +5.9 NV: Biden +5.7 MN: Biden +5.5 PA: Biden +3.7 AZ: Biden +3.6 FL: Biden +3.5 NC: Biden +2.0 OH: Biden +1.6 GA: TIE TX: Trump +1.4 IA: Trump +1.6
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
The tipping-point state here would be PA, where there’s been a real lack of high-quality polling for the past couple months. I doubt that Biden is actually ahead by 8 in MI and 6 in WI but only 3-4 in PA. But, that’s what the polls show if you don’t blend them with priors.
image…WGBH
Electoral-Vote.com (an objective but liberal site) has Minnesota as the tipping-point state. If Biden should win back Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while keeping New Hampshire (subtotal 263 Electors) he would also need to win Minnesota (10 Electoral Votes), or else win one of these less-promising states: Arizona (11), Ohio (18), Florida (29) or N. Carolina (15). Should he lose all those states but carry Nevada (6) there would be the dreaded dead heat (269-269) which would send the Presidential choice to the House (almost certainly D) and the Vice-presidential one to the Senate (most likely R) — producing a Biden-Pence administration.
See https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/tipping_point.html
I’m confused!
This is like a chess game!
Biden need’s the Obama states…..
Period….
The mentions of Texas, Iowa, Georgia as in play for Biden are just media jokes ….
Looking at the Nate Silver numbers for now seems to show B iodine has a good amount ofd work too STILL do to hold things at what COULD be a a blow out Democratic ‘wave’ like the 2018 midterms …
A LOT IS still up in the air with the virus, economy, voters suppression, Trump’s miscues, protests, maybe his heath now…..
Seems like little depends on Joe Biden right now….
Actual 2020 chess game
https://www.order2020chess.com/?MID=11274821&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIhLr2_NKB6gIVE4paBR1m9QKcEAAYASAAEgKffPD_BwE
Another projection for a Biden win…
They keep piling up….
Rachael Bitcofer
@RachaelBitcofer
2. the independent probability-based forecasting model he ran in the 2018 cycle. Although we no longer interact on twitter I wanted to note this major achievement of his. You can view @TheEconomist model hereTachael
Biden Leads in North Carolina
A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 50% to 46%.
In the U.S. Senate race, Cal Cunningham (D) leads Sen. Thom Tillis (R), 47% to 39%.
If these polls continue like this thru Sept?
Donald Trump probably needs to quit and have Pence pardon him for ANYTHING….
Seriously?
Trump appears to be in deep shit and Biden isn’t Hillary…
I know his handlers are hoping for the debates…
But?
Trump will be all over the place lying like a rug and all B iden has to do is give short answers and let the guy bury HIMSELF….
Interesting analysis. It looks like Biden has to win two of the following three states: MN, WI, AZ. Also either New Hampshire (more likely) or Nevada. Pennsylvania has to be a Biden win.
I give Biden good chances for Pa, Nev, Arizona, Minn and Wisc…..
A new poll put of Arkansas has Trump only leading there by 2 pts.
Did they forget to include the Duggars?
A new Hendrix College poll in Arkansas finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by just two points, 47% to 45%.
Politicalwire…