Add Rothenberg to the growing list of us pundits that see Donald J. Trump as a one term President….
More than two months ago, even before COVID-19 became all-consuming in our lives, I wrote a column arguing that the presidential race had changed from a toss-up/tilting Democratic to leaning Democratic.
That significant change had nothing to do with the coronavirus. Instead, it followed from changes in the fundamentals of the 2020 presidential contest, including the end of the Democratic race, the inevitable nomination of former Vice President Joe Biden, and President Donald Trump’s continued poor standing in the polls.
Now, a little more than two months after that March 18 column, much has happened. Approximately 100,000 Americans have died from the coronavirus. The stock market went down and then back up again. Tens of millions of Americans have become unemployed. Multiple inspectors general have been fired. There have been political gaffes and controversies. And the president has tweeted and tweeted and tweeted.
Despite all these developments, I see little reason to change my assessment of the presidential race. The country is as polarized as it was two months ago, and the trajectory of the contest is essentially unchanged, with Biden holding a comfortable lead in national polling and having multiple paths to 270 electoral votes.
While daily developments give the cable television networks something to chatter about, today’s big story will be replaced by a new one tomorrow, and another one the day after that. But the fundamentals of the race remain unchanged.
That doesn’t mean the outcome is inevitable. A dramatic development could change things. But for now, Trump’s options are narrowing as Election Day approaches. The White House will need to do something dramatic to alter the trajectory of the race….
Note….
The one exception is Jason Furman…
But he’s NOT a pundit…
He’s an economist …
image….Dallas News.Com
It’s worth noting that Sean Hannity is distancing himself from Trump while commenting on the Lake of the Ozarks pool crowds over Memorial Day weekend. His remarks were pr0-mask and social distancing while Trump has mocked those in masks and is cheerleading for a full RNC in August even if it means moving it from Charlotte.
Couple that with Ann Coulter also ripping into Trump lately and one must ask. Is this a sign that these political opportunists are already writing off Trump and will be planning how to best monetize the potential right wing angst that will settle in under a Democratic Presidency?
We shall see.
That IS my feeling….
If Jack was still around he’d think we are crazy to say this out loud,…
Check the Rubio post i did today….
We could wrong…
But we also COULD be smelling some defections …
Whomever loses this election, be it Trump or Biden, will be the subject of great derision by *both* sides. The people in their parties who will stand with them through a campaign will dump them as “losers”, once they have done so.
I can say though. that the obvious poll numbers aside, the Trump fans, both enthusiastic and reluctant online, are convinced (or at least pretending to be for public consumption) that he is going to win and win easily. They have convinced themselves that Biden is completely senile and that America will never vote for him.
I’m sure those same Trump fans thought for sure that his support would keep the House in GOP hands in 2018 and his rallies for Roy Moore and the GOP candidates for Governor in Louisiana and Kentucky would do the same.
Their guy won in 2016 when no one thought he would. They now have the idea that he can’t lose, even when he does.
My 3 son’s, who don’t belong to any parry but voted Democratic ALL think Trump WILL win….
They look at my face and come back and say they hope he loses so they can wrong…
The sense of disbelief IS STILL STRONG out there ….
Mitt Romney has at least taken Trump to task for pushing the Joe Scarborough conspiracy theory. I hope this will push Mitt to do the right thing and publicly back Joe Biden for President.
The Joe Scarborough slander is of course Trump at his worst, especially as it relates to using a woman who died tragically as a political pawn at great pain to her family.
Can we also remember though that for years this “Joe Scarborough dead intern scandal” was a regular feature of the kind of thing talked about on Daily Kos and on the far left whenever Scarborough was mentioned. I may be wrong, but I think Keith brought it up here a time or two before Trump co-opted it from them.
Maybe it was. Never paid much attention to Daily Kos.
Sort of like the right wing Republicans claiming there was a “Clinton body count”. At least before Trump that kind of stuff was on the fringes.
The Republican Party is no longer worried about being associated with crap that used to linger only on the outposts of the internet. It’s mainstream for them now apparently.
Which is why I’m proud to vote for the one party that can and will defeat them in November.
He, he, he….
Scott?
Don’t hold ur breath…
Some of these polls are REALLY scary….
A new We Ask America poll in Missouri finds Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in the presidential race, 48% to 44% with 5% undecided….
Politicalwire….
Last time around, Trump beat Clinton by 18.5 % in Missouri (although John McCain had carried the Show-Me-State by only 0.13% in 2008). After 1900, the only year that Missouri voted against the candidate who carried the Electoral College was 1956 (Ike vs Adlai). So Missouri qualifies as an excellent belwether state for which party entered the White House (28 out of 29 times), although far less so for the actual percentages.
The state, as Scott can tell you far, far more knowledgeably than I, has always been split over race and culture between Southerners who were Dixiecrats before they became Republicans, and Northerners or Midwesterners who traditionally supported the G.O.P. (Carl Schurz was a bulwark of Mr Lincoln’s party).