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Another November election forecast has Trump losing….

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Trump worried

This one calls the economy recession and joblessness troubles cancelling Donald Trump’s job application for another 4 years come November 3rd….

It joins just about EVERY other projection and forecast for the November Presidential election featuring Donald Trump vs Joe Biden…

The polling news keeps getting worst for Trump & Co.

This guess is pointing to a landslide loss for Trump….

And that could provide collateral damage for Republicans down ballot….

(How long will Republicans lawmakers have Trump’s back if these poll numbers continue into the late summer?)

The piece linked below talks about bringing several states in play that one would doubt are gonna switch…But even talking about these states has to have Republicans worried…

The economy has gone from President Donald Trump’s greatest political asset to perhaps his biggest weakness.

Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection.
The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a “historic defeat” in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted.
The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote. That’s a sharp reversal from the model’s pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55% of the vote. And it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.
“It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump,” Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a “nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November.”
The model has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1948 other than 1968 and 1976 (although two candidates lost the popular vote but won the presidency in that span, including George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016).

Ohio, Missouri could flip to Democrats

The national election model assumes that the economy is still in bad shape this fall, with unemployment above 13%, real per capita incomes down nearly 6% from a year ago and brief period of falling prices, or deflation.
“The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression,” the Oxford Economics report said.
A separate state-based election model run by Oxford Economics that incorporates local economic trends and gasoline prices predicts Trump will badly lose the electoral college by a margin of 328 to 210. That model forecasts that seven battleground states will flip to Democrats: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.
“We would expect these states to experience significant economic contractions and traumatic job losses that would likely swing pocketbook vote,” the report said.
Oxford Economics developed the state-based model last year. It would have correctly predicted Trump’s upset electoral college victory as well as seven of the nine prior elections since 1980….
Note…
Donald Trump has ALREADY begun to try to divert voters and the media attention from the virus and economic problem by attacking ‘things Obama’ and trying to look ‘Presidential’…
That worked in 2016…
2020 has little to do with four years ago….
And there mention of betting odds in the above linked piece does not mention that the bettors LOST TONS of money on Trump’s win last time….
image…Vox.Com

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  1. A word of caution on this poll..
    Joe Biden isn’t gonna get Missouri

    Rachel Bitcofer

    First, economic fundamentals model has dropped. Like I said, all the economic fundamentals models will underestimate Trump’s two party vote share unless their makers add in a polarization variable. Many models are economic fundamentals based

  2. It’s worth noting that even though Missouri went to Trump by 18 points in 2016 we came within a few points of having two Democratic Senators after that election as Jason Kander almost knocked off Roy Blunt, losing to him by only 3 points.

    That being said I don’t expect Missouri to be close. The last time it was–in 2008 going to McCain by 3000 votes–the Democrats won in an Electoral College landslide.

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