Could we have ‘wave’ election this November ?
States most likely to flip from Republican to Democratic ranked
1. Michigan
2. Pennsylvania
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin/Florida (tie)
5. North Carolina
6. Georgia
7. Ohio
8. Iowa
9. Texas
States most “likely” (I put that in quotes since at this point it’s quite unlikely any states flip Blue to Red)
1. Minnesota
2. New Hampshire
3. Colorado
4. Virginia
Scott @ Politicaldog101
image…FlaPol/AP
I’m open to anyone’s critique on this one. I haven’t done any deep dives into polling or trends. Just what I see based on the states demographics and electoral history and trajectory
I also think AZ will go blue. The Latino vote is mobilized, Mark Kelly is doing well in the polls. PA has a Democratic governor, Biden is leading in the polls and he is a native son from Scranton. NC also has a Democratic governor who gets good marks and NC was ordered by state courts to redraw districts before 2020 election. I agree with MI as the #1 most likely to flip. It was such a narrow victory margin in 2016. FL is a wildcard (as always). DeSantis manipulating the virus data might be just too much for some Floridians. Don’t know too much about WI. Mobilizing the vote in Milwaukee could still be key.
Yeah Kelly seems to be locking down that Senate seat in Arizona, and it may have a reverse coattail effect pulling Biden up over Trump by a couple of points while Kelly is heading to double digit leads over McSally,
I do not expect a Blue State to flip, but I would think Nevada would be the most likely one.
At the other direction, I would just maybe have Wisconsin moved up to 2 or 3 and probably Ohio up. Let’s also not forget that one CD in Maine that Trump won.
I forgot about the Congressional Districts in Maine and Nebraska.
And Nevada was likely an oversight on my part. I don’t expect it to flip, but since Trump lost it by less than 3% it is probably more likely to go blue to red than Colorado–which went to Clinton by 5%.
I can go along with just about everything on the list.
I agree with CG that Nevada might be more likely than those four blue to red States although I too doubt that any will.
Nevada unemployment is now 28%–highest in the state’s history and highest of any state in the nation.
Hard to see where Trump could flip this state from blue to red this year unless that number drops substantially by November,
“Nevada’s unemployment rate skyrocketed to 28.2% in April, the worst-ever unemployment rate in state history and the highest mark in the country,” the Nevada Independent reports….
Politicalwire…