Nancy Pelosi looks good for another 2 years at least as House Speaker if she wants the job…
— The Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling has been very consistent over the course of Donald Trump’s presidency.
— Democrats also have a significant money edge in the lion’s share of their most vulnerable districts. Money is not everything, but it can help.
— We have seven House rating changes, four in favor of Republicans and three in favor of Democrats.
— Put it all together, and Democrats remain favored to hold their House majority.
Table 1: House rating changes
| Member/District | Old Rating | New Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Angie Craig (D, MN-2) | Leans Democratic | Likely Democratic |
| Dan Bishop (R, NC-9) | Likely Republican | Safe Republican |
| Don Bacon (R, NE-2) | Toss-up | Leans Republican |
| Andy Kim (D, NJ-3) | Toss-up | Leans Democratic |
| Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1) | Leans Republican | Likely Republican |
| John Carter (R, TX-31) | Leans Republican | Likely Republican |
| Ron Kind (D, WI-3) | Likely Democratic | Safe Democratic |
The very stable generic ballot
President Trump’s approval rating is not the only big-picture national indicator that has not changed much over the course of his presidency.
The national House generic ballot has also been very consistent for the three-plus years he’s been in the White House.
Democrats have led almost every single one of the nearly 400 House generic ballot national polls released since Trump took office, as compiled in the 2018 and 2020 RealClearPolitics averages.
The lion’s share of these polls, about 310, were released during the 2018 cycle, while close to 90 have come out in this cycle. Because the House is less of a focus in this year’s presidential election cycle, it’s natural that the generic ballot question is being asked less.
The wording from different pollsters varies, but the generic ballot question usually asks whether a respondent plans to vote for a Democrat or a Republican in their local House of Representatives election.
Out of 309 polls included in the 2018 database, 305 showed Democratic leads; three were tied and another showed a Republican lead of one point. Out of 88 polls this cycle, 87 have shown a Democratic lead, and one has shown a tie. The current RealClearPolitics average shows a Democratic lead of 7.4 points, almost exactly the same as its final average in 2018.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s averages in both 2018 and 2020, the Democratic lead has been in the mid-to-high single digits for almost all of the last three years (the site’s 2018 average dates back to April 2017). You can see the immense stability at the links….
It would be interesting to see comparisons to polls taken in 1996.
After Democrats swept the 2018 midterms Republicans brought up that the GOP winning the House in 1994 didn’t help them two years later.
Of course–different times. The events of 1995 and 96 only strengthened Clinton and the Democrats. The rebounding economy and the domestic terrorist attack in Oklahoma City perpetrated by fringe right wingers. I’m curious if polls raken in early 96 showed gains the GOP made in 1994 were not being replicated that year. Sure the GOP barely held control of the House and kept the Senate even with Clinton’s reelection–but it was clear the Contract With (on?) America was not a realignment.
Conversely polls now showing Democrats holding these suburban House district wins from 2018 portend that the midterms were not a one off and Democrats are in good shape to not only hold the House, but win the White House and key Senate races by winning those suburban House districts.
Anybody know when the polls turned on Hillary?
Sept…Oct…?
Here’s a link to polls in 2016
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls
Thanks Scott….
From the graph it appears that Hillary had thinks go south on her in September …
Real late….
I have to remember this…
It’s important
I’m sure Biden’s people have this written on the campaign walls in LARGE LETTERS…
As I have mentioned a few times, every ekection is different. 2020 us not 2016–Trump is the incumbent now and the ekecrion will be more about him than it was four years ago.
Political wire has an article on how there are fewer voters who dislike both candidates this year than in 2016, and those that do are more likely to vote for Biden.
The third party and independent vote will also be more minimal this year, so the undecideds that heavily broke to Trump or went 3rd party in 2016 are unlikely to break the same way this year.
The projections right now favour Biden…
But we DO have to wait for the late summer to see…
BAD economies do NOT favour incumbent President’s…
I would think the same for WORSE….
… and who knows what October Surprise Nice Bear, Cozy Bear, Julian Assange, the IRA or the Chinese have planned for some critical point in the campaign ?
Yea DSD…
Anything COULD drop