NY Gov Cuomo reports higher deaths but other numbers HAVE dropped (some as much as 50%) as the virus cases seem to be holding or even decling in the state that still leads the nation….Remember there IS a lag in some numbers, which would mean the plateau was a few days ago …The numbers are still higher that we all would like to see…
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
New York reports fewer new cases than yesterday: Today: 8147 Mon: 8658 Sun: 8327 Sat: 10841 Fri: 10482 Thu: 8669 Wed: 7917 Tuesday 3/31: 9299 Not sure about testing volume—Cuomo doesn’t usually announce those numbers—though it’s been fairly constant from day to day in New York.
@NateSilver538
In many places, Tuesdays are bad since you’re catching up from slow reporting on the weekend. So that’s an encouraging number. Meanwhile, net hospitalizations are up (+656) from the weekend, but much slower than last week (~1,200 per day) and lowest ICU number (89) in ~2 weeks.
@NateSilver538
The bad news, as Cuomo said, is that NY recorded its highly daily death toll, 731, vs. an average of ~600 for the previous four days. As he also said, deaths are likely to lag behind other indicators that show the slope bending.
@NateSilver538
Decisions about how to re-open things may be a lot more difficult than decisions to shut them down. Shutting down / radically increasing social distancing was a robust policy response across a wide range of preferences and uncertainties. Re-opening is more sensitive to those.
Note….
Cuomo says there will be adjustments to his daily numbers …
Nate Silver on Virus cases dropping in Italy also…
@NateSilver538
No Tuesday hangover in Italy either. 3,039 newly-reported cases, which looks like their lowest number since March 13. worldometers.info/coronavirus/co
@NateSilver538
That’s on 34K newly-reported tests which is a pretty high number for Italy. Less than 10% of newly-reported tests came up positive in other words.
Today’s NY virus report….
Gov. Cuomo said New York is seeing progress in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic as the curve of hospitalizations “is flattening” despite the state suffered its worst single-day jump in deaths yet….
More…
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
The peak in newly-detected cases coming on 3/31 would make a lot of sense. Roll 2-3 weeks back from that (average lag time between infection + case detection) and we’re in the 2nd week of March, when the problem is becoming clearer but before there’s much social distancing.