The Cook Political Report survey’s the polls and the country as its economy continues downward and virus crisis grows and dominates the news…
Pe0ple should mindful of Bush I’s history….
He ran good polls DURING the first Iraq war ….
But afterwards?
He lost his re-election bid to Georgia Governor Bill Clinton….
Donald Trump got his present job by winning only 70,000 votes in states he currently trails Joe Biden in now…(Except Florida)….And Joe Biden is actually running stronger than Hillary Clinton with Democrats…
…..for now, voters’ perceptions of the seriousness of this crisis and Trump’s handling of it, are driven as much by partisanship as anything else. In the most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll (March 11-13), voter confidence about Trump’s ability to deal with coronavirus issue is 48 percent confident to 50 percent not confident, which basically mirrors his overall approval ratings of 46 percent approve to 51 percent disapprove. In fact, according to an analysis by Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research (the co-pollsters of the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey), the voters who say they are most worried about the coronavirus and its impact look a lot like the kinds of voters who support Democrats: African-Americans, suburban voters, and college-educated females. Meanwhile, the voters least concerned about the virus, look a lot like Trump voters: white non-college voters, rural voters and those who define themselves as conservative.
We also have a Democratic primary campaign that is both temporarily on hold but also essentially over. With almost 60 percent of all delegates allocated, Joe Biden has built an insurmountable lead for the nomination. Barring a complete collapse of his campaign between now and June, Joe Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee…
…
The most recent Marist/PBS/NPR poll (3/13-14) found Trump’s overall job approval at 43 percent. Among white, non-college voters, almost two-thirds (57 percent), approve of the job he’s doing, but just under 40 percent (37 percent) of white voters with a degree think he’s doing a good job. Among suburban voters, just 39 percent give the president a positive rating, while 48 percent of those who live in small towns, and 59 percent of those in rural areas approve of the job he’s doing in office. Just 31 percent of non-white voters approve of the job the president is doing….
…
Trump’s path to the White House is anchored in Florida. Under our current ratings, there is only one scenario out of twelve possible for Trump to get 270 electoral votes without winning the Sunshine state.
Steve Schale, one of the premier Democratic strategists in Florida, argues that the I-4 corridor — Orlando and Tampa — will determine the outcome of the election….
…
If Trump holds Florida, the next most important states for him are in the industrial Midwest and that infamous trifecta: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump can afford to lose two of these states and still win the Electoral College (assuming he wins all the other states in Toss Up). But, he can’t lose all three….
image…ABC News