Bernie Sanders is finished…
He’s in his thoughts on how to proceed…
Donald Trump is useless as the virus action is a morass on the Federal level and a hodgepodge on the state and local levels…
Increasingly Democrats from Sanders and other candidates camps have to deal with the realisation that the best way to make ‘America Great again?”….
IS a move to support Joe Biden’s efforts to win the job of President from Trump….
The fundamentals remain the same as they were January 2019.
In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College. Two years later, Democrats gained a net of 40 House seats and a House majority, building that by winning suburban congressional districts.
The electoral map for 2020 remains the same as it was 14 months ago — with Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, plus Minnesota, New Hampshire, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina — offering clear indications as to where the presidential race is headed. Nevada and Maine are also worth watching, considering how close they were in 2016.
The Trump coalition is little changed from 2016. White evangelicals, rural voters, conservatives and self-identified Republicans remain loyal, as do non-college-educated white men.
But both the midterm elections and polling since then have shown whites with a college education (especially white women with a college degree) flipping from the GOP to the Democrats. The president has not added any groups to his electoral coalition.
National and key state polling show Trump’s reputation and job approval largely unchanged. His approval remains between 42 percent and 46 percent, depending on the pollster and the poll.
That isn’t surprising, even after the news of the coronavirus and plunging stock market, which has wiped out most of the gains during the Trump presidency.
Trump’s supporters watch Fox News, listen to conservative talk radio and generally believe the explanations coming out of the White House or from the president’s defenders on Capitol Hill, making them resistant to change.
Still, the longer the health emergency and negative economic fallout last, the greater the likelihood that there will be some defections from the Trump coalition. Any leakage of these voters would be a problem for the president’s campaign, given the narrowness of his win in 2016.
A new opponent
The biggest change in the environment since early January 2019 involves Trump’s opponent. As I wrote back then:
“Democrats will have a potentially nasty primary fight in 2020, which could easily produce a flawed nominee who, like Clinton, cannot unite anti-Trump voters.
“And the eventual Democratic nominee may have to tack so far left to win the nomination that swing voters will not be comfortable supporting a progressive who calls for higher taxes and ‘Medicare for All’ (single-payer health care).”
In fact, former Vice President Joe Biden has emerged surprisingly quickly as the consensus Democratic nominee.
His message of pragmatism and broadly acceptable change — on health care, climate change, guns and economic fairness — should maximize his appeal to Democrats and swing voters.
Supporters of Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, whose message of socialism and revolutionary change resonated with some voters, particularly the young, will be saddened, and in some cases angry, at the outcome of the Democratic presidential contest.
But most will eventually support Biden, given both Sanders’ support for him and the alternative: the incumbent president.
Biden has vulnerabilities, of course, but they are nothing like Sanders’.
Still, it’s not difficult to imagine a scorched-earth Trump reelection effort that portrays Biden as corrupt (citing Ukrainian gas company Burisma and his son’s role) and senile.
The key states are still where you want to look for 2020, since Biden could have a large popular vote victory and still lose the Electoral College. But the early head-to-head polls offer Democrats reason for optimism….
More by Stuart Rothenberg