Bernie Sanders is finished…
He’s in his thoughts on how to proceed…
Donald Trump is useless as the virus action is a morass on the Federal level and a hodgepodge on the state and local levels…
Increasingly Democrats from Sanders and other candidates camps have to deal with the realisation that the best way to make ‘America Great again?”….
IS a move to support Joe Biden’s efforts to win the job of President from Trump….
The fundamentals remain the same as they were January 2019.
In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College. Two years later, Democrats gained a net of 40 House seats and a House majority, building that by winning suburban congressional districts.
The electoral map for 2020 remains the same as it was 14 months ago — with Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, plus Minnesota, New Hampshire, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina — offering clear indications as to where the presidential race is headed. Nevada and Maine are also worth watching, considering how close they were in 2016.
The Trump coalition is little changed from 2016. White evangelicals, rural voters, conservatives and self-identified Republicans remain loyal, as do non-college-educated white men.
But both the midterm elections and polling since then have shown whites with a college education (especially white women with a college degree) flipping from the GOP to the Democrats. The president has not added any groups to his electoral coalition.
National and key state polling show Trump’s reputation and job approval largely unchanged. His approval remains between 42 percent and 46 percent, depending on the pollster and the poll.
That isn’t surprising, even after the news of the coronavirus and plunging stock market, which has wiped out most of the gains during the Trump presidency.
Trump’s supporters watch Fox News, listen to conservative talk radio and generally believe the explanations coming out of the White House or from the president’s defenders on Capitol Hill, making them resistant to change.
Still, the longer the health emergency and negative economic fallout last, the greater the likelihood that there will be some defections from the Trump coalition. Any leakage of these voters would be a problem for the president’s campaign, given the narrowness of his win in 2016.
A new opponent
The biggest change in the environment since early January 2019 involves Trump’s opponent. As I wrote back then:
“Democrats will have a potentially nasty primary fight in 2020, which could easily produce a flawed nominee who, like Clinton, cannot unite anti-Trump voters.
“And the eventual Democratic nominee may have to tack so far left to win the nomination that swing voters will not be comfortable supporting a progressive who calls for higher taxes and ‘Medicare for All’ (single-payer health care).”
In fact, former Vice President Joe Biden has emerged surprisingly quickly as the consensus Democratic nominee.
His message of pragmatism and broadly acceptable change — on health care, climate change, guns and economic fairness — should maximize his appeal to Democrats and swing voters.
Supporters of Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, whose message of socialism and revolutionary change resonated with some voters, particularly the young, will be saddened, and in some cases angry, at the outcome of the Democratic presidential contest.
But most will eventually support Biden, given both Sanders’ support for him and the alternative: the incumbent president.
Biden has vulnerabilities, of course, but they are nothing like Sanders’.
Still, it’s not difficult to imagine a scorched-earth Trump reelection effort that portrays Biden as corrupt (citing Ukrainian gas company Burisma and his son’s role) and senile.
Advantage Democrats
The key states are still where you want to look for 2020, since Biden could have a large popular vote victory and still lose the Electoral College. But the early head-to-head polls offer Democrats reason for optimism….
More by Stuart Rothenberg
image…washingtonexminer.com
New Open Thread is HERE.…
Republicans like me built this moment. Then we looked the other way. – Stuart Stevens, top strategist for Romney 2012 campaign.
“Don’t just blame Trump. Blame me — and all the other Republicans who aided and abetted and, yes, benefited from protecting a political party that has become dangerous to America. Some of us knew better.
But we built this moment. And then we looked the other way.
Many of us heard a warning sound we chose to ignore, like that rattle in your car you hear but figure will go away. Now we’re broken down, with plenty of time to think about what should have been done.
The failures of the government’s response to the coronavirus crisis can be traced directly to some of the toxic fantasies now dear to the Republican Party. Here are a few: Government is bad. Establishment experts are overrated or just plain wrong. Science is suspect. And we can go it alone, the world be damned.
All of these are wrong, of course. But we didn’t get here overnight. It took practice.
Long before Trump, the Republican Party adopted as a key article of faith that more government was bad. We worked overtime to squeeze it and shrink it, to drown it in the bathtub, as anti-tax activist Grover Norquist liked to say. But somewhere along the way, it became, “all government is bad.” Now we are in a crisis that can be solved only by massive government intervention. That’s awkward.
…
Yes, elections have consequences. Those of us in the Republican Party built this moment. Now the nation must live with those consequences.”
https://www.washingtonpost….
I bet Stevens won’t be writing in Mitt Romney’s name this November.
Nope Keith, he sounds–and writes–like an adult.
One of the best analysis of what happened to the Republican Party I’ve read .
Short and simple.
When you allow ,and let’s call them shat they are,Kooks ,like that idiot Grover Norquist ,to become the guiding hand of your party ,then it’s not surprising that Trump is the result.
Bill Weld has ended his primary challenge to Trump.
Hopefully he endorses Biden.
Delegate count….3/18/2020 9:06 PM DST NY
Biden……1,180….(+295)
Sanders….885
Biden 811 from 1,991 delegates for the nom nation technical call…
I wonder how Z, Brandon, SE and Daniel are doing?
I’m sure ur HHR guys like NYCMike and REPUBLican are fine CG…..
Good Morning….
Tulsi Gabbard quits the Democratic nomination race….
“Assad day for her”
Politico
BREAKING: Tulsi Gabbard ends White House bid, endorses Biden politi.co/2xS8N1G
We’re in the stores ….
Trucks have been delivering….
But shelves are NOT full….
Baker says ‘enormous increase’ in coronavirus testing is on its way
Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker says the state will soon be seeing an “enormous increase” in coronavirus testing.
The wait for coronavirus test results in Massachusetts can last as long as a week, a delay that exacerbates equipment shortages, frustrates worried patients and families, and hamstrings front line health care workers’ efforts to combat the growing pandemic, the Globe reported Wednesday….
More..
David Leonhardt
House Democrats should refuse to pass any big stimulus bill without provisions to ensure that the country can hold a presidential election in November. They have the leverage to do so.
That wouldn’t be good form, that can be addressed later…and that could hurt democratic messaging…
Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), whose endorsement ahead of the South Carolina primary helped fuel Joe Biden’s surge, told the Wall Street Journal that Biden “should incorporate as much of the efforts being proposed by Bernie Sanders as he can.”..
Politicalwire…
Delegate count….3/19/2020 8:06 PM DST NY
Biden……1,181….(+296)
Sanders….885
Biden is 810 out from the 1,991 threshold for the nomination…
Several primaries have been moved back to June 2nd, the last day for them…
Morning….
Tax filing deadline moved back to July 15…
Interesting…..
There werelong lines to get marijuana before those stores closed down in the Netherlands…
Travelers
Stock Market is up again today +200 or so…
Delegate count….3/19/2020 10:56 PM DST NY
Biden……1,201….(+305)
Sanders….896
Gabbard……….2* Dropped Out
Warren……83* Dropped Out
Bloomberg..58* Dropped Out
Buttigieg…….26* Dropped Out
Klobuchar…….7* Dropped Out
2,273 declared….
1,991 needed for 1st Ballot nomination win
There are several different delegate reads around the media..the above is AP….
Biden 790 from 1,991
Morning People….
One thing
Ya can sleep late!
I’m seeing some good posts in the media and some really fucked up ones….
People who ARE business smart and agile are gonna make enough money to get thru…
Others ARE going to have no business and jobs to come back to….
In the end?
This IS going to be about the economy
Kenny Rogers, whose country music career spanned six decades, has died at the age of 81.
Sorry but like others….
I have to cut back on the ‘hair on fire’ media hollering about the virus…
After walks…
Everyday we go out and try maintain some normalcy in getting things to eat and live with….
With wipes and social distance of course….
Oh ?
I forgot to add…
All those project around the house i WAS gonna get to?
I’m getting to…
Morning….
There are people whispering about NY Gov Cuomo for President as the media showcases his actions in NY which has half of the countries virus ‘hits’ right now…
Good Late Morning….
Hello from the office. Nothing like returning from a “vacation” amid a statewide order to stay at home and being told not to abide by it.
CG?
You will be having company across the country soon…
The economy simply CANNOT keep going from home and no workers….
People and companies use WILL adapt….
We HAVE survive …
Virus or not…
Just be careful…
The economy both in terms of the fundamentals of it before this began and the advent of technology makes this far easier to “survive” than it would have been anytime before.
After this, there will be far more effort put into people working remotely.
It’s just weird being in an office now, with a bunch of people who are now suddenly working from home as part of a test. Someone on the same floor as us literally get sick on Wed with the virus and tested positive on Friday. Not a lot of information is being provided other than that. At least I know I was home all last week.
Yes there will…
Companies that can shed costs by doing more on line WILL do so…
Delegate count….3/24/2020 12:09 AM DST NY
Biden……1,215….(+306)
Sanders….909
…
Biden 776 from 1,991
Morning…..
Morning People….
To show how crazy things have become?
As Trumps approval ratings rise,Morning Consult Poll says 74% support a national lockdown ,a position Trump has specifically rejected ,as he supports a possible return to “normal” in 18 days, yet increasing numbers voice approval of his “handling “ of this crisis,although he rejects the solution that three quarters support!
So there you have it!
Then again?
Maybe people just enjoy the daily rantings by a con man who paints these pretty pictures ,that deep down they know is BS ,but that they so fervently Want to believe.
It’s been said that people get the Government they deserve.
If this is truly, truly the case, than Trump’s reelection looks like a stronger bet than ever. Imagine the credit he will take once this passes. Scary in a way.
I don’t think it is though. I think his overall JA has slipped slightly because of this. The one thing though that is not going to get people to turn on him is PC outrage over “Chinese virus.”
We also have to now consider the near certainty of the Democrats’ convention in Milwaukee essentially being canceled. They will nominate Biden (or whomever) electronically. The networks may air his acceptance speech from his basement or campaign HQ.
On the other hand, the Republican Convention, scheduled for late August, will probably happen, (whether it should or not) The major networks out of fairness may only air Trump’s speech on the last night (which will have his supporters outraged) but the cable networks will still have to cover it.
It’s always beneficial to have the latter convention. This would be the first time ever that only one party likely even holds a convention/infomercial.
and obviously now no two week Olympic interlude between conventions.
and if there is a steep recession before the election, you can perhaps throw away the rule book as to whom will get “blamed.”
If anything people will see Trump as someone who was overly eager to avoid a recession at the cost of people’s health and thus they may determine that the recession is not his doing and is something that is needed for the greater good.
I’ll now try to cheer up Democrats:
It looks like MC has his overall JA at 45/52, consistent with Rasmussen.
Last week, the same firm had him trailing Biden 47-42. They will poll that weekly. 42 is still a horrible topline for an incumbent.
A lot of people may “approve” of Trump’s handling of this (though I think it is lower than some would believe) simply because everything is baked in the cake already with him and they basically have no expectations. They are looking for others to solve this problem and already mostly just dismiss Trump on substantive matters.
Does Morning Consult give a JA number or approval of his handling figure?
Some epidemiologists, including one with the CDC are now predicting that the peak of this will be in about three weeks.
Ironically,that is about the time Trump and James want to return to “normal.”
Sort of like ,at the height of a hurricane ,telling everybody who evacuated to come home!
NY Gov Cuomo is on the list for mid April…
Trump KNEW this …
Like the flu….
The numbers are bound to level out and drop…
The economy won’t be the same even with ALL the money thrown at it…
BTW?
A GOOD amount of the money thrown out in the the next month WILL have strings attached and will have to paid back…
Hmmmm?
How and WHEN?
He didn’t know a damn thing.
Just mindless off the cuff rambling which he is an expert at.Indeed today he said he selected Easter because it was a “nice day.”
Further ,just because cases are going “down” doesn’t mean all is clear.Indeed these same epidemiologists cautioned that even after they start going down there will still be flareups and the numbers may rise again if precautions are not continued
In other words, calling for everybody to go back to work in three weeks ,even if these doctors are right?
Sheer lunacy!
Jack…
Jack…
Jack….
The guy has been briefed for the last few weeks…
He KNEW where there experts where going and they KNEW where the boss wanted to do…
Fauci said as much….
But used caution…
Trump just heard what he wanted…
All the sudden just about ALL these guys fall in line with Trump’s Easter wish?
Politics…
And YES , as U know Jack?
“Flare ups” WILL be in the Governor’s laps
Despite all the noise right now?
You think Trump is gonna back down?
Huh?
Oh what is this?Your pathetic attempt to be condescending?
Forget it?You aren’t smart enough to be condescending to anyone here.
If the “expert l” who made this prediction originally (an epidemiologist on contract to CDC ) was known to Trump he would have cited him or even had him on stage to show the “librul media.”The whole thing was an article on CNNs website .While some other experts agreed with the call,others didn’t .Not surprising in this very fluid situation.
So you’re saying that come Easter Trump will dump everything in the Governors lap.Thats idiotic.This thing will still be a major issue for months and without federal assistance it will break out all over again.
During this whole matter so far you have displayed a cavalier attitude ,even bellyaching cause you couldn’t find any bottled water for godssakes.Bellowing that “people gotta eat”( even though no one appears to be starving in the streets), and supporting Trumps absurd idea to “get back to normal” by Easter.
I have no idea what Trump will do.His words are meaningless.He can change on a dime and declare he never said what he did earlier.Everyone here knows that.You have no idea either.You Want him to do what he said because you support it.Andthat makes you as big a fool as he is.
It really sickens me to see the way some people feel so “entitled “in this crisis.People like you wanting their bottled water,some damn woman in the paper yakking about not being be able to walk her damn dog on the beach in the local newspaper,irresponsible jackasses partying and likely helping spreading death to others.
All of you are reprehensible in my book.
I haven’t left my house in nearly two weeks.Its no fun but I’m getting by.As for you?
Want to see the problem Go stare in the damn mirror!
Morning All….
Beautiful day to take a walk!
Delegate count….3/26/2020 08:57 PM DST NY
Biden……1,217….(+303)
Sanders….914
Gabbard……….2* Dropped Out
Warren……81* Dropped Out
Bloomberg..55* Dropped Out
Buttigieg…….26* Dropped Out
Klobuchar…….7* Dropped Out
2,302 declared….
1,991 needed for 1st Ballot nomination win
There are several different delegate reads around the media..the above is AP….
Biden 774 from 1,991
In the sidebar RCP numbers Trump has gained roughly +5% points in 4 days….
Morning All….
Stock Market diving down right now…
The Democratic primary Calendar has changed ….
June 2nd is now another Super Tuesday….
Morning……
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said the state’s presidential primary election will be postponed from April 28 until June 23 amid coronavirus fears, CNN reports….
TV Commercials are beginning to reflect the Caronavirus virus stay home effect….
Pre-convention schedule as of today:
1 day[s] or 0 weeks & 1 day[s] until Puerto Rico (D) on Sunday, March 297 day[s] or 1 weeks & 0 day[s] until Alaska (D) on Saturday, April 4
7 day[s] or 1 weeks & 0 day[s] until Hawaii (D caucuses) on Saturday, April 4
7 day[s] or 1 weeks & 0 day[s] until Louisiana on Saturday, April 47 day[s] or 1 weeks & 0 day[s] until Wyoming D caucuses on Saturday, April 410 day[s] or 1 weeks & 3 day[s] until Wisconsin (D) on Tuesday, April 7
31 day[s] or 4 weeks & 3 day[s] until Connecticut (D) on Tuesday, April 28
31 day[s] or 4 weeks & 3 day[s] until Delaware on Tuesday, April 28
31 day[s] or 4 weeks & 3 day[s] until Pennsylvania on Tuesday, April 28
31 day[s] or 4 weeks & 3 day[s] until New York on Tuesday, April 2831 day[s] or 4 weeks & 3 day[s] until Maryland on Tuesday, April 2831 day[s] or 4 weeks & 3 day[s] until Rhode Island on Tuesday, April 2835 day[s] or 5 weeks & 0 day[s] until Guam (D caucus) on Saturday, May 2
35 day[s] or 5 weeks & 0 day[s] until Kansas (D-organized primary) on Saturday, May 2
38 day[s] or 5 weeks & 3 day[s] until Indiana on Tuesday, May 5
45 day[s] or 6 weeks & 3 day[s] until Nebraska on Tuesday, May 12
45 day[s] or 6 weeks & 3 day[s] until West Virginia on Tuesday, May 12
52 day[s] or 7 weeks & 3 day[s] until Kentucky on Tuesday, May 19
52 day[s] or 7 weeks & 3 day[s] until Oregon on Tuesday, May 19
52 day[s] or 7 weeks & 3 day[s] until + Georgia on Tuesday, May 19
66 day[s] or 9 weeks & 3 day[s] until District of Columbia on Tuesday, June 2
66 day[s] or 9 weeks & 3 day[s] until Montana on Tuesday, June 2
66 day[s] or 9 weeks & 3 day[s] until New Jersey on Tuesday, June 2
66 day[s] or 9 weeks & 3 day[s] until New Mexico on Tuesday, June 2
66 day[s] or 9 weeks & 3 day[s] until South Dakota on Tuesday, June 2
66 day[s] or 9 weeks & 3 day[s] until + Ohio on Tuesday, June 2
66 day[s] or 9 weeks & 3 day[s] until + Maryland on Tuesday, June 2
66 day[s] or 9 weeks & 3 day[s] until + Rhode Island on Tuesday, June 2
70 day[s] or 10 weeks & 0 day[s] until Virgin Islands (D caucus) on Saturday, June 6
71 day[s] or 10 weeks & 1 day[s] until Puerto Rico [R] on Sunday, June 7
84 day[s] or 12 weeks & 0 day[s] until + Louisiana on Saturday, June 20
84 day[s] or 12 weeks & 0 day[s] until + New York on Saturday, June 20
87 day[s] or 12 weeks & 3 day[s] until + Kentucky on Tuesday, June 23
Thank You DSD as Always!
BTW?
This place keeps rolling along with a slight increase in visit’s…
The hosting service cleared out some bot traffic a few weeks ago….
Out visits remain a good number afterwards…
Hope those who where our regulars who have left are doing good…
And Thank You for all who come here to chat and always wishing for more legit additions…
Gov. Raimondo’s order postpoing the Rhode Island primary:
http://www.governor.ri.gov/documents/orders/Executive-Order-20-11.pdf
Morning People….
Morning People….
I was waiting for this…
Cuomo our polling Trump in addition to Biden…
Harry Enten
Coronavirus has impacted NY more so than any other state… Cuomo’s net favorability is up about 55 points per Siena. Trump’s hasn’t moved. Trump was down 19 to Biden last month. He’s down 25 now. Potentially ominous sign going forward…
Interesting..
Market is currently UP +400 points or so…
Bottom feeders looking for bargains?
Macy’s/Bloomingdales to girlie 130,000 employees
Andrew Cuomo for President?
Chris Cuomo asking his brother, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, whether he was thinking about running for president was quite amusing….
Politicalwire…
Marco Rubio now in full Trump cultist mode.
Castigating the news media for reporting the news that the United States now has more coronavirus infections than China.What should they have done?Not reported it?
Rubio says they did it with “glee” whatever the Hell that means.
I always thought this guy was a big nothing. This kind of Trump talk confirms it.
Yeah, Rubio is a complete piece of shit too.
Yes it’s sad Jack. He essentially joined Moscow Mitch in a bizarre Republican attempt to excuse all things Trump in saying this pandemic would be under control if the Senate hadn’t been consumed with impeachment.
Putting aside the fact that the Senate only confirms Judges and already had 400 bills from the House they were ignoring, he doesn’t seem to understand what branch of government actually is responsible for health and safety.
A bunch of Republican bullshit that really smells at this point.
I will post THAT Keith….
In addition the DOJ is attacking the FBI again…
Trump & Co ARE using the virus for political cover…
Biden’s good numbers seem to negate their efforts ….
CNN Breaking News
CNN anchor Chris Cuomo has been diagnosed with coronavirus. He is feeling well, and will continue to do his program from home. cnn.it/3ayn6qE
And Trump & Co Is moving to cut Obama vehicle mileage rules…
Morning People…
Morning…..
Florida gets a stay home order finally …
Morning…
Dumbass of the Day…
Georgia’s Trumpite Governor Brian Kemp says he didn’t know until this week that asymptomaticpeople can pass the virus on to others.
This despite the fact that experts have been talking about it for a month.Hell I read that two weeks ago myself.
People have had this stuff months before we know it…
Site sidebar has been updates…
Extensive state Presidential nomination primary dates juggling…
Morning…..
Interesting…
More political stuff today in the media…
The daughter and grandson of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend are missing since yesterday in Chesapeake Bay. I really hope everything turns out ok but that sounds scary. Why would anyone go off in a canoe during stay at home orders?
Boredom ?
I am not happy that Obama STILL is standing on the sidelines with his former VP all but having the nomination technically wrapped up …
It is the typical professor Obama side that made me annoyed from time to time during Obama’s time in office…
The Democratic party need Obama to at least give Biden some sort of ‘blessing’ to go forward…
Obama has indicated that Sanders is NOT the thing for Democrats going forward..
As a Charlestonian yourself, Jack, what do you think of this post to the editor/writer of a Boston Globe newsletter:
Kendra Waters of Charleston, S.C.
I have lived in Charleston for two and a half years. In that time, I have often questioned the lack-of-action and slow nature of our city government. Like many politicians, our mayor has really stepped up and gone against much of what the state of South Carolina has done to take serious steps in the city to flatten the curve. I have really appreciated being able to see a different side of many of our politicians (and for some, the not so good).
I have also begun taking a cue from my dogs and have started learning to live in the moment more. I am still working full days, but being forced to slow down life has allowed me to appreciate things as I do them, rather than always think about what is happening next.
These are not earth-shattering, but I wanted to thank you for making me pause and think about the positive for a second.
¶ As a socialist who leans more to the progressive than the centrist wing of the Democratic Party, I have to say that my approval has vastly increased during this crisis for Governors Gina Raimondo (RI), Andrew Cuomo (NY) and J.B. Pritzker (Ill.)
I agree with her.
Charleston Mayor John Tecklenburg was the early Leader in the state in taking positive actions .
TrumpCultist Governor Henry McMaster was still telling people to go about their daily lives in a normal manner .He still hasn’t issued aStay-At-Home order ,instead babbling Trumpite Campaign type garbage .
Morning….
McMaster in SC along with DeSantis in FL and Parson in MO and other GOP governors all parroted the same BS about letting local governments decide.
DeSantis and Parson just recently reversed course.
In Missouri the St. Louis and Kansas City metros the mayors and county execs all issued stay at home orders two weeks ago. I listened to them instead of our hapless governor.
CG?
Kennedy mother and son, swept away in Chesapeake Bay, are mourned by family….
Link…
U.S. Rep. Joseph Kennedy III raised nearly $2 million this quarter, again outpacing rival U.S. Sen. Edward Markey even as the congressman stopped actively fundraising in the last two weeks due to coronavirus.
Kennedy has brought in $1.95 million since January, his campaign manager, Nick Clemons, said in an email to supporters Wednesday. Markey raised $1.2 million, campaign manager John Walsh said in a statement to the Herald…
More….
After a devastating defeat, the opposition party in Britain makes an apology and promises to go in a starkly different direction:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8187181/Keir-Starmer-vows-stamp-anti-Semitism-poison-new-Labour-leader.html