The polls have Bernie Sanders ahead of Joe Biden in the Democratic state with the most Presidential primary delegates …
That was before Joe Biden’s blowout win in South Carolina….
The number of early voters is around 40% , which means 60% of the Democrats could vote with the knowledge of Biden’s big win in SC….
Could Biden get a ‘bounce’ from his win?
Would it be enough to catch Sanders in California?
Despite his weak polling in California, there’s a silver lining emerging for Joe Biden in the biggest delegate prize on the board next week.
Biden’s weakness after a distant second finish in Nevada could have compelled Californians who have been voting since the Iowa caucuses to support a moderate alternative who was doing better at the time. But there’s a big upside for Biden: A huge number of them haven’t voted yet. The portion of returned ballots at this stage is much lower than in recent elections — and his campaign is counting on a late surge of support among those holdouts after his dominant performance on Saturday.
Paul Mitchell, an elections expert who has tracked the number of returned vote-by-mail California ballots through Friday, told POLITICO he’s seen a significant drop-off among Democratic voters to date from the last two California presidential primaries. And the decline in returned ballots so far is occurring among the most dedicated voters: Those who have participated in the last five elections.
“People in Super Tuesday states and California, in particular, are not returning their ballots yet,” said Danielle Cendejas, a Democratic strategist in California whose firm did campaign mail for both of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. “They’re waiting for a signal, and I think this is a signal. If you were debating between which of the Democrats who aren’t Bernie Sanders or even Elizabeth Warren to throw your hat behind, you’re probably going Joe Biden’s way.”
These so-called “perfect” Democratic voters dropped from 57% turnout by this point in 2008, and 62% turnout in 2016, to 46% turnout so far this year, according to the data compiled and shared by Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc. That means Biden, coming off South Carolina, has more room to expand his support before Tuesday.
“If all of these really high-performing Democratic voters had already cast their ballots then it narrows the window that you have to actually make an impact on Monday and Tuesday right before the election,” Mitchell said.
Biden turned in a huge performance in South Carolina, notching his first win in three presidential campaigns and positioning himself to ride the momentum. But in California, Biden is struggling to break double digits in polls and Sanders is the clear frontrunner….