The official starting gun of the 2020 elections will be fired Monday night at firehouses, gymnasiums, churches and libraries across Iowa.
About 200,000 Iowans — give or take 50,000 or so — are expected to brave chilly conditions and a slight chance of snow or ice to head to their precinct caucus at 7 p.m. Central to pick their preferred candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination.
In Iowa, voters must arrive at a specific time. And because of caucus rules, it’s possible the candidate they choose in the initial vote will be eliminated, and they’ll have to pick someone else.
Here’s everything you need to know about how the process works — and how to watch the results like a pro:
How It Works
When the candidate-preference portion of the caucus begins, attendees are asked to move around the room for the “first alignment.” They walk to a designated area of the room for their favored candidate, who are represented by “precinct captains.” Then organizers tally the number of people for each candidate. There’s also a section for “uncommitted” — people who choose not to pick a candidate.
Then comes the cut. In the vast majority of districts — all but those small precincts that have a tiny number of delegates up for grabs — the viability threshold is 15 percent. Any candidate above 15 percent is deemed viable, and their supporters are locked in. (That also applies to “uncommitted,” by the way. Caucus-goers who want to see the first alignment goes before picking their candidate may need to strategically line up with a non-viable campaign in order to remain eligible to switch.)
For voters who have picked a candidate who doesn’t meet the threshold, they can either switch to a viable candidate or hope to recruit enough people to make their candidate viable. That might be possible if they are between 10 percent and 15 percent, but it’s unlikely if they are significantly lower.
After all the switching comes a second count, known as the “final alignment.” Each candidates’ supporters are tallied, and any candidate at 15 percent or above is eligible to earn delegates to the state convention later this year. The number of delegates at stake is fixed going into the caucus — it’s based roughly on the performance of recent Democratic candidates in the precinct — and the chairperson uses the final alignment count to calculate the equivalent number of delegates each candidate has won from that precinct.
The Vote (and Delegate) Count
In past caucuses, the state delegate equivalents were the only numbers provided to the public. But after a near-photo finish between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in 2016, reforms were adopted aimed at increasing transparency. Now, the state Democratic Party will be releasing all three metrics: the raw votes from the first and final alignments, and the state delegate equivalents….
More from Politico….
just for the heck of it- first Round Prediction:
Sanders 26
Biden 22
Buttigieg 19
Warren 17
Klobuchar 11
Yang 3
others 2
It remains to be seen if popular vote totals will even be released or if they will just give a delegate count.
They WILL GIVE SEVERAL results breakouts…
Ballots and delegates…
So u can have a popular vote winner and different delegate winner…
I believe the reports will be the 1 st popular vote, last popular vote and the delegate count…
The winner i believe has to get over 25% of the vote and u mush get at least 15% ….
Failure on these two moved things to another vote…
DSD can correct me if i’m wrong
They had a complex list of rules in 2016 that ended with “Hillary Wins All Coin Tosses.”
In a non repeestarive state it’s really about organization …..
Nothing else…
But it won’t be sold in the media as such
Nate Cohen and Nate Silver on a small on a small caucus poll in florida ….
One fun thing about these satellite caucuses is that I had to come up with some expectations for how they’d vote, which I did using the highly sophisticated technique of stereotyping the satellite caucus locations (nursing home, college, paris, snowbirds etc)…
….
We had Klobuchar taking second in the snowbird caucuses to Biden, but Klobuchar wins first alignment in the first one in Port Charlotte that I just watched on CNN lol
Biden isn’t even winning the snowbirds??
Time to wait for some results …
It doesn’t look like my rooting for Biden is bringing him much luck tonight.
I will cross the “virtual room” and align myself with Unaligned and try to figure out what’s up with all those socialists in the bleachers.
All the Biden people standing around together at these sites look like they are parents waiting to pick up their kids up at a concert.
Andrew Solender
Results of the Iowa Satellite caucus in Florida
Klobuchar – 48
Buttigieg – 38
Biden – 33
Warren – 12
Steyer – 2
Sanders – 1
Yang – 1
Bennet – 0
Bloomberg – 0
Delaney – 0
Uncommitted – 0
I just want say this is just plain BULL SHIT…
It has NOTHING TO DO with a primary…
I’m listening to the ‘horse trading’ in real time….
1,600 locations with this in the second go around….
Why the Democrats allow this I understand but think this is fucked up🙄
It should be a fucking joke…
It’s like their gang and my gang game…
This is the first round,,,,
Sanders and Warren are the strongest in SIME locations…
This is how they always do it.
With some luck, both of our “Joes” may finish third tonight.
Go Uncommitted!
You can’t spell Uncommitted without Mitt!!!
This is looking like a potential big night for Buttigieg.
According to the Entrance polls, Biden is only leading him by 2 points among “Moderates.”
If Buttigieg wins this I’d think Biden people would be relieved ….
I think its all but certain that Sanders will get first.
Who will be 2-5?
The Biden people very much should want Warren to finish ahead of Buttigieg. Otherwise, Warren may be out next week and that would be extremely good for Sanders winning the nomination.
I know this is how it works….
But listening to it?
And the media having woodies is fucked up….
Where have you been in past cycles?
Chris Matthews has been getting thrills up his leg since 2008. He doesn’t seem to happy tonight though.
Ha, ha, ha
Chris is a damn MESS….
Talks OVER EVERYONE…..
Runs his mouth…..
Gheez!
I actually won money at a Super Bowl Party for like the first time ever last night, so I am feeling lucky and should bet on the Caucus. Should I put it all on a Yang upset?
You may be able to retire if you get it right!
I was first introduced to the word Caucus at the same time I was introduced to the word Dukakis so it was all a bit confusing.
Since this is on the internet, I don’t know if it is accurate, but apparently there are “results” from the Iowa Caucus that met in Paris, France.
Move over Dixville Notch and pass the croissants?
1st round:
Warren 7
Sanders 5
Klobuchar 3
Buttigieg 2
2nd Round:
Warren 8
Sanders 6
Klobuchar 3
Besides France and Scotland, there will also be a Caucus in Tblisi, Georgia (which james will say should favor Biden because it’s a country that sounds like a southern state) as well as 12 additional states in the U.S. and D.C.
RT News has just projected Tulsi Gabbard as the winner.
The Republican caucus results of 97% Trump look like a Russian election. Very appropriate.
At the moment, they are having a conversation and keeping the viable ballots “comfortable” while they discuss what should happen to them.
I mean when they cancelled the final poll that was one thing but….
There is a problem with the results being reported via App?
Maybe they just need to keep swiping left…
There was a post about software problems in Iowa…
Is the App called Taxr or Spendr?
Ok, at this point they might as well just blame the Russians.
This App worked about as well as the Obamacare website rollout.
Iowa has 99 Counties and not a vote has been won…
Bloomberg just bought the App from the IA Dem Party for 12 delegates.
This much I know.
If at whatever wee hour they announce the result and Bernie did not win, his supporters will be ballistic.
Then again, if they announce in some wee hour that he did win, his supporters will still go ballistic.
Not blaming this on the Russians and Trump is a strategic mistake.
He, he, he….
Twitter reports are that the turnout is LOW and VERY young….
Buttigieg is looking good on th entry polling….
Biden will probably come in behind with a young voting group….
As I said before….
Buttigieg WINNING this is NOT all bad for. Biden….
I expect Sanders to win NH….
So Biden is gonna work Nev, SC, Ca and Texas….
Biden leads 23 of 4 of those and Ca could come back to him….
He IS gonna get beat up in the media…
But the two first states are simply NOT REAL repping Dom states…
Buttigieg has little chance outside these two…
But we’ll see…
The results for this will be in the early morning and I won’t be up for them….
james, if you have a real dog, this would be a good time to pet it.
Before i get in the bed …..
Where’s the results?
Victor speeches with no results?
Good
Stop this bull shit caucus and have a damn primary !
Great night for Mayor Pete.
He played that very well. As a “future former Republican” he almost appeals to me.. but then I remember how liberal he is.
Once Bernie loses to Trump, Mayor Pete will be the runaway favorite for 2024.
Van Jones said Biden got lucky that results were not released tonight because an “anvil was about to be dropped on his head.”
This is a disaster for all Iowa voters who took part in the process and who have worked at it for basically a year. The overall turnout is said to be well below 2008 levels (and that is basically with a an uncontested Republican primary… there are reports that people who wanted to exercise their right to give speeches in favor of Weld and Walsh were refused or shouted down..)
My conclusion was that this was a good night for Buttigieg and a good night for Bloomberg. Once the results are released, it will probably be good for Sanders, but there are going to be a lot of hard feelings over all this.
I will wait to see who tomorrow will attempt to spin any of this as a “good night for Democrats.”
Morning….
I’ll repeat what i said last night
This whole caucus in in the state that has little to do with Democrats nationally should be gotten rid of….
Howard Dean proposes a Scream-Off to determine the winner.
Biden’s speech without a teleprompter was as uncomfortable as hell.
Buttigieg is the only one who is going to look “Presidential” tonight and it won’t even be close.
RIP First In the Nation Iowa Caucus:
1972-2020
Remember ORCA ? President. Romney certainly does.
I got 99 counties but a vote ain’t one…
They had problems at the sites with the mathematical formulas that campaigns are complaining about. The same formulas that have always been in place.
This why there should be mandatory drug testing for Caucus Captains.
Some stood up to hostile crowds to speak for Walsh. Some voted tonight in Iowa for Mitt Romney. “Join another party”, the Trump supporters yelled. They are likely to get their wish eventually.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/us/politics/iowa-republican-caucus.html
I maintain that turmoil is in the future for both major parties.
Turmoil is certainly in line for the Democratic Party – as the younger voters have very different values than the older voters.
I ‘m less sure that the GOP will have turmoil – although they might. They had no turmoil in completing its switch to the party that will support Trump without reservations, so I expect they will also enthusiastically support the next authoritarian figure that has Trump-like values.
Those who “claim” to know the results are saying it’s Sanders 1st, Buttigieg, 2nd, Warren 3rd, Klobuchar 4th, and Biden… 5th.
Yikes. I guess we will find out, maybe, on Tuesday.
I largely agree with CG’s analysis. It was a terrible night for Democrats as we appeared unorganized.
I agree that the real winners are likely Bloomberg, Mayor Pete and Bernie – probably in that order, while Biden likely escaped a very embarrassing narrative. Even third place would have to be a disappointment. If Biden came in fourth after spending all of that time in Iowa, his campaign is in trouble – although several of the posters on this site have been giving him inflated odds to win the nomination. I don’t see him winning NH – which makes SC a must-win for Biden to keep his campaign alive.
On the other hand< I don’t see Biden losing S. Carolina,
Jack would know more.
But S.C. (Sat. 29 Feb.) is only 3 days before Super Tuesday 3 March, which will likely be a free-for-all where every candidate can claim victory somewhere. (“My 37% in California is better than your 41% in Florida…”
Super Tuesday is only a day after the 3rd Knesset election in less than a year (Mon. 2 March), which Trump, Kushner and U.S. Amb. David Friedman have been trying their hardest to tip to their good friend and indictable criminal Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporting cast of crazy anti-Arab Israeli nationalists and settlers. “G-d gave us this whole Land, from the Jordan to the Sea!”)
At this point, I would be surprised to see a decisive Biden victory in SC. And he is burning through his cash.
I don’t for Biden in SC….
Hillary felt she’d win SC…
Obama took it…
Obama’s VP should own the state, even if the margin is lower…
Sanders leads in Ca right now….
But Biden leads in New,SC and Texas…
If he does win those states he STILL is line to capture the nomination…
Sanders looks good for NH…
My feeling is a Buttigieg win in Iowa does NOT hurt Biden’s chances….
Of course a loss hurts. The only exception is if you outperformed expectations.
There WILL be results….
Even before?
The noise was disproportionate to the actual delegate race…
Well, yes. Of course “who won Iowa” takes on a far greater significance than the relatively few delegates at stake. We all know that.
Which IS Bull Shit….
But you’re right…
11 am and still no results.
They may very well have taken the Morning After pill by now.
Someone refresh my memory but didn’t the 2012 GOP Iowa caucus take a few days to find out Santorum barely won?
The caucuses are outdated and prone to all kinds of problems you don’t see with primaries. Time to scrap them all.
Romney won on Caucus night. Then, they said Santorum won, even though there were a whole bunch of precincts, (where Romney had been doing well) they decided to not even count,
Sorry Iowa. Your time has come and gone.
Agreed. Take one of the oldest whitest states that is only getting older and whiter and add an outdated process and you get these kinds of CFs.
The first states to vote should be medium sized states with at least one large urban center. How about Wisconsin and Arizona–primaries!
My best guess is that if SC had the first contest in 2008, then Obama would have lost that primary. Winning in Iowa gave him creds.
My best guess is that Biden would have still struggled if a different state (other than DE, PA and a handful of other states) had been first. Recall how he started this campaign as the clear frontrunner in Iowa, but once people heard him talk, they began to drift to other candidates.
Please correct me if I’m wrong, but I would tend to suspect that Iowa has more than its fair share of older voters. The younger voters have largely moved out of IOWA.
Nope on older/younger….
Younger voter do Caucuses….
Older ones vote….
Iowa voted on the whole for Trump last time…
Biden walked into the state with a disadvatage…
…Caucus electorates appear to be fairly young, and primary electorates fairly or even very old. This shouldn’t be a huge surprise. The kinds of Democrats who have excelled in caucuses in recent years, like Mr. Sanders and Barack Obama, were backed overwhelmingly by younger voters. The young represented a large share of the caucus electorates in the 2004, 2008 and 2016 entrance polls — the only publicly available data on the composition of the caucus electorate, even if it’s of uncertain quality….
NY Times…
I don’t think it holds water to say that Caucuses are going to attract more young people. Bernie and Warren and Buttigieg and Yang just happen to do well with them.
The overall Caucus turnout from last night has to be disappointing.
Given such a direct challenge to comb the ’Web, I learned that Iowa has a slightly smaller percentage of those older than 64 than does New Hampshire or South Carolina, although (as one might expect) a greater percentage than Nevada.
STATES RANKED BY PERCENT OF POPULATION AGE 65 OR OLDER, 2018
Rank; State; Total Resident Population (thousands); Population Ages 65+ (thousands); Population Ages 65+ (percent)
1 Maine 1,338 276 20.6%
2 Florida 21,299 4,358 20.5
3 West Virginia 1,806 360 19.9
4 Vermont 626 121 19.4
5 Delaware 967 181 18.7
6 Montana 1,062 199 18.7
7 Hawaii 1,420 261 18.4
8 Pennsylvania 12,807 2,336 18.2
9 New Hampshire 1,356 246 18.1%
10 South Carolina 5,084 900 17.7%
11 Oregon 4,191 739 17.6
12 Arizona 7,172 1,258 17.5
12 New Mexico 2,095 366 17.5
14 Connecticut 3,573 615 17.2
14 Michigan 9,996 1,717 17.2
14 Rhode Island 1,057 182 17.2
17 Iowa 3,156 540 17.1
17 Ohio 11,689 1,995 17.1
19 Arkansas 3,014 512 17.0
19 Wisconsin 5,814 985 17.0
21 Alabama 4,888 827 16.9
21 Missouri 6,126 1,034 16.9
23 South Dakota 882 147 16.6
24 Massachusetts 6,902 1,139 16.5
24 Wyoming 578 95 16.5
26 Kentucky 4,468 731 16.4
26 New York 19,542 3,214 16.4…
https://www.prb.org/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/
And if my recollection is correct, Santorum won, but Ron Paul ran away with most of the delegates.
Amen Scott!