The two little states have had their say….
We have a race at this time…
Joe Biden went into this as the media beaten up odds on winner…
Right now?
Bernie Sanders is the media favourite …
(He just bearly won last night and Buttigieg seemingly has more delegates…So should HE be the frontrunner right now?…Not Bernie…Or third place Amy Klobuchar )
The nomination situation has reversed itself….
The Democratic moderate vote is being split among Buttigieg, Biden, Bloomberg, and Klobuchar….
The race gets serious starting next Saturday in Nevada and on to South Carolina. and Super Tuesday…
Math.
After Bernie Sanders’ narrow victory last night in New Hampshire, Pete Buttigieg’s close second, Amy Klobuchar’s surprising third, Elizabeth Warren’s disappointing fourth and Joe Biden disastrous finish in fifth, we now have a delegate race on our hands.
Two contests down, and here’s the pledged delegate scoreboard: Buttigieg 23, Sanders 21, Warren 8, Klobuchar 7, and Biden 6. No other candidate has received a single delegate.
Remember, Democratic delegates are awarded proportionately, so to rack up big delegate hauls over the competition, you have to win big. (It’s why Sanders’ 1.5-point victory over Buttigieg netted the two men the same number of delegates from New Hampshire – 9. And it’s why Super Tuesday looms big.)
Also remember, you need to hit at least 15 percent – either statewide or in congressional districts – to qualify for delegates. (Which is why both Warren and Biden came out of New Hampshire with zilch.)
Oh, and don’t forget the magic numbers.
The first is 1,991. That’s the majority of total pledged delegates it will take to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot at the Milwaukee convention.
The second (for now) is 2,376. That’s when the party’s 771 superdelegates get added to the mix for the second ballot and beyond, and that becomes your majority for all total delegates.
So get out your calculators and spreadsheets. And welcome to yet another Democratic delegate math race.
One final thing here: We don’t quite understand the rush to declare someone as the overall front-runner for the Dem nomination.
Two contests down, there is no front-runner. Bernie Sanders certainly seems like he has the best chance to secure a quarter or a third of the pledged delegates.
But he doesn’t have a path yet to secure a majority of the delegates. (See below for more on this.)
And if you can’t crack 30 percent in New Hampshire, are you really the frontrunner?…
image…Slate.Com
Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D-Minn.) presidential campaign on Wednesday said it had raked in over $2.5 million since polls closed in New Hampshire’s primary Tuesday night.
“Just as @amyklobuchar said, Team Amy redefined grit, and tonight’s results proved that our grassroots support continues to surge! Thanks to the team’s strong showing, we raised more than $2.5 million since the polls closed,” tweeted Justin Buoen, Klobuchar’s campaign manager….
More..
Ok Z….
You get the count WITH Iowa included…
Like Trump….
Sanders campaign has flooded the social media networks….
Why do you say that Bernie is the media favorite?. I just don’t see it. The media did report that Sanders, for example, had several thousand people attend a rally at the UNH – but that’s their job to report these things. It seems that a lot of the media – including MSNBC – provides the message that Bernie can’t win a general election – which is also a popular message on this site.
I remain for Mike Bloomberg. But it just seems foolish to continue this argument that the media is for Sanders. If I am missing something that you see, then please explain the evidence that the media is for Sanders. If it was, we would be seeing more stories, for example, discussing how expensive health care is in the US and why, or how after almost two decades in Afghanistan, we have little to show for the lives lost, PTSD claims and $18m that we spend every month there. Instead, these relevant issues are largely ignored by the media.
His “evidence ?”
Biden is not doing well;therefore,it’s the “media’s” fault.
If Biden was doing well?You wouldn’t hear a peep about the “media” from him.
The 5238 project is ALL Sanders….
I could list the headlines in the last 12 hours screaming that everybody should go home ‘the Bern’ has this….
Sanders DID get the win….
He should get credit…
But the knee-jerk projections that the race is over are just that….
As u pointed out…
Buttigieg leads actually…
But u’d never know that ?
And the REAL states are coming up….
Show us an example of what you are talking about. Who in the media is saying that Sanders has the nomination wrapped up? (Maybe the pro-Trump media because it is wishful thinking for them)
And Iowa and New Hampshire are as “real” as any of the other 48 states.
I guess I thought Nevada was this Saturday. It’s a whole week after that? That seems too long. This cycle NH gets close to two weeks before anyone else votes.. Back in 1996, the fight was over 1 week, and candidates had to skip Delaware which voted two days later.
Of course, early voting is going on in California already and elsewhere where votes are being locked in as candidates drop out and the entire nature of the race and strategies change.
Should give pause to those who demand so much “early voting.” It leads to a lot of wasted votes.
Cal is like 400+ delegates…
Biden WAS leading up until a few weeks ago…
Sanders now polls ahead…
the only person I can think of who argued that the nomination process was essentially decided was you – and that was six months ago when you said Biden would be the nominee.
Even though Sanders got the most votes in each of the first two contests, no one I know of has or should claim this battle is over. Sanders odds of winning the nomination is at most 40% – and I would argue even that is too high. This race is wide open.
That IS correct….
I’m STILL more or less sticky to my story…
There has been ONE primary so far…
My view is and was based on Nevada, SC, Tex and maybe some Ca and Super Tuesday….
Those contests are still waiting for votes….
South Carolina will tell the tale as to Biden.
If he wins ?Hes still in the mix.
Anything other than a victory will be looked upon as a devastating defeat.
He may plow ahead awhile longer if he loses ,but his money will fairly rapidly dry up and pressure will mount for him to support another viable candidate to stop Bernie.
Agreed Jack….
Political writer Ron Brownstein asks a good question.
As talk increases about a “brokered convention?”
Who exactly are the “ brokers.?”
A brokered convention = Tump second term
Truth is what is being talked about is not really a”brokered” convention rather a second ballot.
Then the 700+ “superdelegates will likely choose the nominee.
There won’t be a brokered convention…
There should be a winner sometime in the Spring….
If they are still jockeying by May/June ?
Democrats ARE IN DEEP trouble
Not necessarily.
The Obama/Clinton nomination battle went into early June.
Actual this is funny coming from you,the person who was wanting Bernie to keep fighting Hillary to “toughen her up.”
I never know for certain in a particular case, but I find the term “brokered convention” used too often where what is meant is a “contested convention”.
Brokering is just one way of concluding a contested convention (or sometimes of forestalling a contested convention). It usually implies the intervention of a third party, when often the campaigns themselves would negotiate a solution (e.g. support me and I’ll support your vice-presidential candidacy or appoint you, if elected, to be Secretary of State). Sometimes contested conventions were resolved by sheer exhaustion, after many ballots, either with the victory of one of the front-runners, or a consensus around someone else (a lesser candidate or a dark-horse newcomer).
Back in the days when the Democratic candidate could not be nominated without the votes of two-thirds of the convention delegates, I think (but don’t know) that many contests were unresolved until the convention.
The 1920 Dem. convention, for example, went to 44 ballots before choosing Ohio Gov. James Cox (founder of Cox newspapers and therefore, I suppose, Cox Cable and Cox Communications) for President and FDR for VP. Warren G. Harding and J. Calvin Coolidge, by the way, crushed both of them in the first 60% general-election landslide in modern politics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_Democratic_National_Convention
Yes that was my point earlier but for some reason the term “brokered “ has become synonymous with “contested” in popular discourse.
Yea…..
She didn’t get tough enough
hillary’s problems had nothing to do with not being toug. Hillary was plenty tough.
She may have been….
But she came across as TOO tough in the beginning and NOT tough enough to handle the server issue…It cost her….