The two little states have had their say….
We have a race at this time…
Joe Biden went into this as the media beaten up odds on winner…
Bernie Sanders is the media favourite …
(He just bearly won last night and Buttigieg seemingly has more delegates…So should HE be the frontrunner right now?…Not Bernie…Or third place Amy Klobuchar )
The nomination situation has reversed itself….
The Democratic moderate vote is being split among Buttigieg, Biden, Bloomberg, and Klobuchar….
The race gets serious starting next Saturday in Nevada and on to South Carolina. and Super Tuesday…
After Bernie Sanders’ narrow victory last night in New Hampshire, Pete Buttigieg’s close second, Amy Klobuchar’s surprising third, Elizabeth Warren’s disappointing fourth and Joe Biden disastrous finish in fifth, we now have a delegate race on our hands.
Two contests down, and here’s the pledged delegate scoreboard: Buttigieg 23, Sanders 21, Warren 8, Klobuchar 7, and Biden 6. No other candidate has received a single delegate.
Remember, Democratic delegates are awarded proportionately, so to rack up big delegate hauls over the competition, you have to win big. (It’s why Sanders’ 1.5-point victory over Buttigieg netted the two men the same number of delegates from New Hampshire – 9. And it’s why Super Tuesday looms big.)
Also remember, you need to hit at least 15 percent – either statewide or in congressional districts – to qualify for delegates. (Which is why both Warren and Biden came out of New Hampshire with zilch.)
Oh, and don’t forget the magic numbers.
The first is 1,991. That’s the majority of total pledged delegates it will take to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot at the Milwaukee convention.
The second (for now) is 2,376. That’s when the party’s 771 superdelegates get added to the mix for the second ballot and beyond, and that becomes your majority for all total delegates.
So get out your calculators and spreadsheets. And welcome to yet another Democratic delegate math race.
One final thing here: We don’t quite understand the rush to declare someone as the overall front-runner for the Dem nomination.
Two contests down, there is no front-runner. Bernie Sanders certainly seems like he has the best chance to secure a quarter or a third of the pledged delegates.
But he doesn’t have a path yet to secure a majority of the delegates. (See below for more on this.)
And if you can’t crack 30 percent in New Hampshire, are you really the frontrunner?…