He now forecasts Biden’s win could be above 25%….
Sanders chances of a win @ 3%….
Silver has mussed that a Biden win above his numbers could net Biden ALL of the delegates in the state and propel Joe Biden to the lead in the nomination delegate race…
One would also think that such a win combined with positive media coverage?
Would give Biden a substantial ‘bounce’ going into the Democrats Super Tuesday primaries…..
FiveThirtyEight: “As for the South Carolina primary, our forecast views Biden as the heavy favorite, to the tune of a 29 in 30 (97%) chance of claiming first place. The only other candidate who has a meaningful chance of winning is Sanders, who has a 1 in 30 (3%) shot — a Sanders win is plausible, but it would register as one of the bigger polling upsets we’ve seen in a primary.”
“Biden’s rise in South Carolina happened very quickly — a week ago, he had a 2 in 5 (40%) chance of winning, slightly behind Sanders’s almost 1 in 2 (46%) chance. Then a plethora of post-Nevada polls came out showing Biden leading in the state by double-digit margins.”….
Could Tom Steyer could sneak into a second place finish?