Several state poll’s are out AFTER Iowa and New Hampshire ….
| North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary | High Point | Biden 24, Sanders 20, Bloomberg 16, Warren 11, Buttigieg 8, Klobuchar 3, Steyer 4, Gabbard 2 | Biden +4 |
| Arkansas Democratic Primary | Talk Business/Hendrix College | Bloomberg 20, Biden 19, Sanders 16, Buttigieg 16, Warren 9, Klobuchar 5, Yang 2 | Bloomberg +1 |
| North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary | PPP (D) | Biden 25, Sanders 16, Bloomberg 14, Warren 12, Buttigieg 9, Klobuchar 5, Steyer 2, Gabbard | Biden +9 |
Before Iowa and New Hampshire…
| South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary | East Carolina U. | Biden 37, Steyer 19, Sanders 14, Warren 8, Buttigieg 4, Yang 3, Gabbard 2, Klobuchar 2, Bloomberg 1 | Biden +18 |
| South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary | Post and Courier | Biden 25, Steyer 18, Sanders 20, Warren 11, Buttigieg 7, Yang 3, Gabbard 3, Klobuchar 2, Bloomberg | Biden +5 |
| Texas Democratic Primary | Dallas Morning News | Biden 34, Sanders 18, Warren 17, Bloomberg 16, Buttigieg 4, Klobuchar 3, Yang 3, Gabbard 1 | Biden +16 |
| Washington Democratic Primary | KING-TV/SurveyUSA | Sanders 26, Biden 21, Warren 16, Bloomberg 12, Buttigieg 8, Yang 4, Klobuchar 3, Steyer 2 | Sanders +5 |
The East Carolina University poll of South Carolina was all done *before* Iowa.
Thanks CG…
Another good reason why Joe Biden isn’t out of things ….And his black vote is STILL with him
Georgia Democratic Primary WSB-TV/Landmark Biden 32, Sanders 14, Bloomberg 14, Buttigieg 5, Warren 4, Klobuchar 3, Steyer 2, Gabbard 1 Biden +18
The “before” polls have no relevance anymore.
It is remarkable how you refuse to acknowledge the dynamics of a campaign.
In a primary campaign?Ten days is a lifetime.
Bloomberg climbs ahead in Florida….
Michael Bloomberg is leading the pack of Democratic presidential hopefuls in Florida, according to a new survey from St. Pete Polls, a sign that the former New York City mayor has picked up traction in a crucial swing state before most of his rivals have even started to campaign there.
The poll shows Bloomberg with 27.3 percent support in the Sunshine State, up 10 points from a similar poll released late last month. Biden, meanwhile, has seen his support in Florida plummet, falling from more than 41 percent in January to 25.9 percent this month….
More…
Biden holding on to South Carolina ….
Steyer is NOT a factor….
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Post-NH South Carolina poll!
Biden 28%
Sanders 20%
Steyer 14%
Buttigieg 8%
Amy Klobuchar 7%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Biden’s lead is down quite a bit. But this is also hardly catastrophic for him.
…
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
In the first post-NH polls in each state, out today, Biden has placed 2nd in Nevada and 1st in SC. Obviously there is a *long* way to go in those states and Biden may fade down the stretch as in IA/NH. But if those were the actual results, he’d still be very much in the running.
I still think Silvers projection model is underestimating Biden like the rest of the media herding…
Dave Hogg
@stareagle
Replying to
@NateSilver538
Sanders is behind in delegate count after two 90% white states, but your model jumped him to a favorite in almost every state in the country. That never made sense, especially given the Sanders advantages in a caucus (Iowa) and a neighboring state (NH).
Just so people should know?
Politicalwire , which rushes out news off Biden’s negatives?
Has NOT mentioned the above SC poll with Biden AHEAD…
That Florida St. Pete poll shows Biden is closer than the Hill piece has it….Bloomberg by 1% point and Biden average is up by double digits….
Florida Democratic Presidential Primary St. Pete Polls Biden 26, Bloomberg 27, Sanders 10, Klobuchar 9, Warren 5, Buttigieg 11, Steyer 1, Gabbard Bloomberg +1
(Again ?….Are Pundits/Media seeking to shitcan Joe Biden wherever they can?)
BTW?
All this new Southern Polls which favour Joe Biden are ABSENT from Politicalwire’s reporting….
I wonder why🙄?????
The Hill reports on just a few of the total of new polls favourable to Biden…
Again?
The narrative seems to diss Joe Biden in the media…
Yeah itS all the “media’s” fault.
For a guy who is so obsessed with a intense dislike of Trump?
You do an awfully good imitation of him.
NOT as good as Bernie HAS become….
I have a strong feeling that SuperTuesday (choosing about a third of the first-ballot delegates) but spread out all over the country from Massachusetts to Florida to California will not give an overwhelming victory to any one candidate. I think that at least three, perhaps four or even five, will carry at least one state or territory.
And you can easily drive yourself right into the loony bin by comparing and calculating all the runners-up and third-place candidates (run, show & place) in all those different states.
Anyone who’s tried to decypher the results of a proportional-preferential election with multiple constituencies in Ireland, Northern Ireland or Australia will understand what I’m describing. (“He who is first shall elsewhere be last, but also second or third; and he who is last shall elsewher be fourth or first.”)
Matters are hardly simplified by the fact that three of the top contenders hail from states choosing on SuperTuesday — but their candidacies won’t be the traditional kind of Favorite Son or Favorite Daughter bid where a state’s voters chose her Governor or Senator in order to keep bargaining power at the Convention. Sanders will very likely carry Vermont, but I don’t think it a lead-pipe cinch that Elizabeth Warren will carry Massachusetts or Amy Klobuchar Minnesota.
“No prophet is without honour, save in his own country…”
Here are the states and territories scheduled to pick Democratic delegations on March 3rd:
Alabama (D)
American Samoa (D caucus)
Arkansas
California (D)
Colorado
Maine
Massachusetts
Minnesota
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
According to RCP Super Tuesday current polling AVERAGES….
Sanders has….
California
Utah
Colorado
Biden has…
Texas
North Carolina
Virgina
Oklahoma
Warren has...
Mass
Maine
Add ANOTHER Southern State to Biden in the polls….
Georgia Democratic Primary WSB-TV/Landmark Biden 32, Sanders 14, Bloomberg 14, Buttigieg 5, Warren 4, Klobuchar 3, Steyer 2, Gabbard 1 Biden +18
Interesting for Feb. 15 ,yet Totally Irrelevant for Super Tuesday.
Once again there are the dynamics of the campaign to consider.
There will be two other events between now and then, Nevada and South Carolina.In addition there will be the general happenings on the campaign trail ,numerous national polls, the seeming momentum of Sanders ,the seeming decline in the fortunes of Biden and Warren, Michael Bloomberg’s money and polling surge.
Show me a poll about five days out.Polls almost three weeks to a month out?Eh?
Valid point Jack…
But in fact the campaigns live on them….
In the case of the front runner?
The media WILL push them…
For others ,like I point out for Biden vs Sanders…
They tend to pick and choose…
They DO do herding…
Actually I think the campaigns “live on them” far less that you do.
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
State polls were mostly pretty good for Bloomberg but national polls were meh.
Obviously Biden has lost a lot of ground since Iowa but he may have found a bottom (for the time being) at ~16% nationally.