….from twitter….
There is NO mention of Joe Biden in all this….
Again…
Pundits have essentially written him off right now….
He did do terrible in Iowa and New Hampshire ….
But the next two state’s and Super Tuesday?
By my calc, NH Dem turnout (vs. ’16) in towns won by… Buttigieg: +26.5% Klobuchar: +25.2% Sanders: +12.0% Takeaway: most of Dems’ turnout increase was attributable to Kasich/Rubio types crossing over from ’16 GOP primary – not heightened progressive/Sanders base enthusiasm.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
The candidate whose support might now be too concentrated among whites w/ college degrees? Klobuchar, who inherited that problem when she inherited much of Warren’s support. Buttigieg’s got just as big problem w/ non-whites, but his support much more even across education.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
It says a lot about the current Dem state of affairs that Bernie Sanders has a much better chance of winning the nomination after winning 26% of the vote in NH than he did after winning 60% of it four years ago.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Of all the Dems in the field, Buttigieg strikes me as the likeliest election numbers nerd. “Longtime follower, first-time handshaker,” he introduced himself to me yesterday in NH. Then we had a 15-second chat about where in NH he was poised to do well (he was pretty accurate).
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Lukewarm take: the electability gap between Bloomberg and Sanders is not as wide as media/Dem elites think it is. Both have considerable liabilities that could complicate Dems’ November math.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Remember when there was talk of “Bernie could just win IA and NH and end up running away with it?” Well, he may have won, but this is not that scenario.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Endorse, and would add for Klobuchar: could be final woman left standing.
Quote Tweet
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
I don’t know how the “moderate knot” (between Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Bloomberg) gets untied because they can all make reasonable and fairly non-redundant claims to being the strongest moderate candidate going forward.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Anyone wanna tell me how this thing *doesn’t* end in a contested convention (or a highly controversial deal cut right before it)? Keep in mind: 38% of delegates will have been awarded by Super Tuesday, and the only casualties of NH were…Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet.
Wasserman and Nate Silver on Democrats AFTER Iowa and NH….
So, the turnout was driven by people who four years ago were voting in the other primary for Kasich, Jeb, and Rubio… (never forget Jeb beat Rubio in NH)…and I presume some Christie too… for one thing this speaks to the effect of Trump getting 86% this year. If these voters had stayed in the Republican party and voted against him, that would have been a good deal lower.
The big thing now though is which Democrat can best win these voters in November. It sure doesn’t look like it would be Sanders.
Nope…
Been saying THAT here for a while…
Wasserman says essentially that moderate Democrats ARE who voted in NH ….
THAT is good for the party and BAD…
The moderate vote was split 3 ways….
Buttigieg/Klobuchar/Biden
Biden got the worst of it…
But contrary to the media headliners?
Bernie Sanders win as I say in two posts here was NOT ALL THAT…
Remember…
NH and Iowa ARE very small and non-diverse states…
We are going on to a whole new political stage
More like moderate Republicanish people crossing over, just like what happened in the 2018 midterms.
Yet if Sanders winds up getting nominated, Democrats are going to lose almost all those people and more. People who voted for Hillary over Trump will either stay at home or vote for Hillary.
Is all that worth it for “Medicare for All” which has zero chance of ever being passed.
Don’t be idiots, Democrats.
I WILL agree that Democrats ain’t helping themselves by letting Sanders do his sidewalk act on their stage…