New Fox polls are out….
Joe Biden leads in South Carolina by 21 points…
But the interesting thing in the Fox poll’s is Tom Steyer….
According to the Fox polling Steyer has moved to 2nd place in the South Carolina race for the Presidential nomination and in 3rd place in Nevada where Biden leads 2nd place Bernie Sanders by 5% points….
We’ll have to see if other polls back a Steyer climb into the first tier….
The polls spell bad news for Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg and Money Mike Bloomberg….
Biden Leads as Steyer Surges In South Carolina
A new Fox News poll in South Carolina finds Joe Biden leading with 36%, followed by Tom Steyer at 15%, Bernie Sanders at 14%, Elizabeth Warren at 10% and Pete Buttigieg at 4%.
Politico reports Steyer has now qualified for next week’s debate.
…
Biden Leads In Nevada
A new Fox News poll in Nevada shows Joe Biden leading with 23%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 17%, Tom Steyer at 12%, Elizabeth Warren at 12%, Pete Buttigieg at 6% and Andrew Yang at 4%.
image…LATimes.Com
New Open Thread is HERE!….
Things are NOT the same if the new Fox poll is right….
Tom Steyer in the first tier???
And?….
Steyer is about to get a floodlight shined on him and his campaign by the media…
Another poll is just out….
Steyer is NOT in the first tier in this NH poll…
Buttigieg, Sanders and Biden are all within 1% point of each other topping the poll from Monmounth…
Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have seen a spike in support in New Hampshire and are now knotted with former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) at the top, according to a new poll.
The latest Monmouth University survey of New Hampshire finds Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., with a narrow lead at 20 percent support, followed by Biden at 19 percent, Sanders at 18 percent and Warren at 15 percent.
The previous survey from September found Warren and Biden alone at the top, at 27 percent and 25 percent support, respectively. Warren has since lost 12 points and Biden has fallen by 6 points, while Buttigieg has gained 10 points and Sanders has gained 6 points….
More…
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
Trump on Democrats: “They are vicious, horrible people … they are horrible people.”
We’ll add another poll with the race better Biden and Sanders….
This Reuters/Ipsos poll has Bloomberg moving ahead of Buttigieg and Steyer one stop behind the South Bend Mayor….
Hmmmmm?
Are the rich guys beginning to grab a foothold?
a – allow independents to participate.
According to the Jan. 8-9 poll, 23% of registered Democrats said they supported Biden, while 20% supported Sanders and 15% said they would vote for U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg was backed by 8% of registered Democrats and 7% supported Pete Buttigieg, former mayor of South Bend, Indiana….
More…
Steyer starts getting more media attention as aspected….
Nate Cohn: “The explanation for Mr. Steyer’s surge is straightforward: uncontested dominance of the airwaves. According to FiveThirtyEight’s ad spending tracker, he has spent more on television advertisements than all other candidates combined — not counting the other billionaire in the race, Michael Bloomberg.”
“In contrast with Mr. Bloomberg, Mr. Steyer’s advertisements are concentrated in the four early states, though his spending in Iowa and New Hampshire has not yielded a similar breakthrough. That’s probably because other candidates are spending there. There may be another reason: Perhaps there’s more to the claim than many assume that Iowa and New Hampshire take their responsibilities at the top of the calendar more seriously than other states.”
“The Fox polls suggest that Mr. Steyer has made broad gains among Democratic voters, spanning most age, educational, racial and ideological groups. The breadth of his support is fairly impressive, given that the Democratic electorate has often split along factional lines so far this cycle. The depth of his support is untested, though.”
Politicalwire…
Morning People…
You can’t turn your tv on here in S.C. without seeing one of Steyer ads.
They’re actually pretty good too ,featuring Steyer talking about one of his favorite issues with an emphatic ,yet measured denunciation of Trump.
He isn’t going to win of course but he’s spending his own money and appears to be enjoying his campaign.
The same with Bloomberg Jack. Both will continue to spend to defeat Trump sans nomination because, unlike others, they realize that this is a national emergency.
Besides, it would be nice to have a real philanthropic billionaire in the White House as opposed to a failed casino owner.
They’ve BOTH spent OVER $200M it’s reported….
And yea…
Bloomnberg’s fall back position IS he’s in it to defeat Trump…. No matter what…
Well the guy is getting some respect in the polls….
Headline of the Day….
Marianne Williamson has dropped her bid for the Democratic presidential Nomination.
Marianne Williamson, the self-help author and spiritual guru who became a viral sensation in the first Democratic primary debates before fizzling out, announced she is ending her bid for president.
“I ran for president to help forge another direction for our country. I wanted to discuss things I felt needed to be discussed that otherwise were not. I feel that we have done that,” she said in a post on her website. “I stayed in the race to take advantage of every possible effort to share our message.”…
More…
When she said she would try to run with a skeletal staff, she meant it literally.
I think this would be a great opportunity for SE-779 to write a screenplay that has Marianne, Kamala, and Kirsten together on a soul-searching post-campaign road trip which goes afoul when they have to evade authorities after Gillibrand beats to death a MAGA hat wearing trucker who mistakenly calls her “Pocahontas,”
The film takes an odd twist half-way through when the trio encounter Beto O’Rourke performing in a drag show outside of Boise.
In just a couple of stories today we see what was likely the real reason Trump took out Salmeini when he did.
1. He was pressured by Pompeo
2. He felt it was what GOP Senators he wants to court in the impeachment trial wanted
3. He was surprised the attack didn’t rally Americans like the invasion of Iraq did in 2003.
Clearly the timing of this was done for political purposes and he hoped to reap a windfall from it like GW Bush did in 2003.
Couple of differences. First Trump lies so much no one believed him rhat there was an “imminent threat” from Salmeini. Second this is “off brand” for Trump. He didn’t run on getting us more entangled in the middle east.
Republicans liked it as a golden oldie from the Neocon days. But they were on his side when he was an isolationist. So no net gain.
4. And he’s living in an Alternate Universe…..
You use this phrase a lot….
Well, if Trump is living in an “alternate universe?”
Approximately 45% of Americans are there with him!
ok…..
THAT fits!
Morning People….
About 2 weeks out from Iowa and 3 weeks from NH voting and the top tier is Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg it would seem….
Buttigieg will NOT be the nominee…
Just to make people happy here i will repeat that i believe Joe Biden WILL have the nomination sewed up by March 4th….
Well, technically that’s not possible.
Even if he won every single delegate (which of course he won’t) ,he can’t lock up the nomination by that date.
Certainly he could be well on his way If he is winning almost all the contests fairly decisively, but winning by a few percentage points won’t do it because of the way delegates are allocated.
Technically ur right….
Realistically ?
He’d have it….
Update…
After maintaining for days that there was no evidence that one of its missiles had struck a Boeing 737-800 minutes after it took off from Tehran on Wednesday with 176 people on board, Iran admitted early on Saturday that its military had shot down the passenger jet by mistake.
The military blamed human error. In a statement, it said Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 had taken a sharp, unexpected turn that brought it near a sensitive military base….
More…
Don’t forget Jack, it’s old news, but James relentlessly told us Hillary had the nomination all locked up in 2008. He predicted she would be anointed by Super Tuesday.
So both technically and practically no one will have the nomination locked up by South Carolina.
I agree with ya Keith NOT by South Carolina….
But?
The winner OF South Carolina WILL BE the nominee ….
My view is that Biden will have the nomination in hand by March 4th…
There is NO one who can duplicate Obama’s move on Hillary….
He WON South Carolina with her husband completely pissed about it…
Sanders beating Obama”s VP. in SC would be a HEAVY LIFT…
Humor For the Day…
Republican pollster Frank Luntz says that at the White House Christmas Party he asked Trump what his middle initial “J” stood for.Trump replied,”genius.”
Yet Frank Luntz still stands behind the Mango Mussolini. Go figure.
Trial post of Countdown table for nomination contests (dates from Fed. Election Commission)
TODAY Sunday, January 12
22 day[s] or 3 weeks & 1 day[s] until Iowa caucuses on Monday, February 3
30 day[s] or 4 weeks & 2 day[s] until New Hampshire on Tuesday, February 11
41 day[s] or 5 weeks & 6 day[s] until Nevada on Saturday, February 22
48 day[s] or 6 weeks & 6 day[s] until South Carolina on Saturday, February 29
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until Alabama (D) on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until American Samoa (D caucus) on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until Arkansas on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until California (D) on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until Colorado on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until Maine on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until Massachusetts on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until Minnesota on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until North Carolina on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until Oklahoma on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until Tennessee on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until Texas on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until Utah on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until Vermont on Tuesday, March 3
51 day[s] or 7 weeks & 2 day[s] until Virginia on Tuesday, March 3
58 day[s] or 8 weeks & 2 day[s] until Hawaii on Tuesday, March 10
58 day[s] or 8 weeks & 2 day[s] until Idaho on Tuesday, March 10
58 day[s] or 8 weeks & 2 day[s] until Michigan on Tuesday, March 10
58 day[s] or 8 weeks & 2 day[s] until Mississippi on Tuesday, March 10
58 day[s] or 8 weeks & 2 day[s] until Missouri on Tuesday, March 10
58 day[s] or 8 weeks & 2 day[s] until North Dakota on Tuesday, March 10
58 day[s] or 8 weeks & 2 day[s] until Washington (D) on Tuesday, March 10
62 day[s] or 8 weeks & 6 day[s] until N. Mariana Is. caucus on Saturday, March 14
65 day[s] or 9 weeks & 2 day[s] until Arizona (D) on Tuesday, March 17
65 day[s] or 9 weeks & 2 day[s] until Florida on Tuesday, March 17
65 day[s] or 9 weeks & 2 day[s] until Illinois on Tuesday, March 17
65 day[s] or 9 weeks & 2 day[s] until Ohio on Tuesday, March 17
72 day[s] or 10 weeks & 2 day[s] until Georgia on Tuesday, March 24
77 day[s] or 11 weeks & 0 day[s] until Puerto Rico on Sunday, March 29
83 day[s] or 11 weeks & 6 day[s] until Alaska (D) on Saturday, April 4
83 day[s] or 11 weeks & 6 day[s] until Louisiana on Saturday, April 4
83 day[s] or 11 weeks & 6 day[s] until Hawaii caucus on Saturday, April 4
83 day[s] or 11 weeks & 6 day[s] until Wyoming caucus on Saturday, April 4
86 day[s] or 12 weeks & 2 day[s] until Wisconsin (D) on Tuesday, April 7
107 day[s] or 15 weeks & 2 day[s] until Connecticut (D) on Tuesday, April 28
107 day[s] or 15 weeks & 2 day[s] until Maryland on Tuesday, April 28
107 day[s] or 15 weeks & 2 day[s] until Delaware on Tuesday, April 28
107 day[s] or 15 weeks & 2 day[s] until New York on Tuesday, April 28
107 day[s] or 15 weeks & 2 day[s] until Pennsylvania on Tuesday, April 28
107 day[s] or 15 weeks & 2 day[s] until Rhode Island on Tuesday, April 28
111 day[s] or 15 weeks & 6 day[s] until Guam (D caucus) on Saturday, May 2
111 day[s] or 15 weeks & 6 day[s] until Kansas (D-organized primary) on Saturday, May 2
114 day[s] or 16 weeks & 2 day[s] until Indiana on Tuesday, May 5
121 day[s] or 17 weeks & 2 day[s] until Nebraska on Tuesday, May 12
121 day[s] or 17 weeks & 2 day[s] until West Virginia on Tuesday, May 12
128 day[s] or 18 weeks & 2 day[s] until Kentucky on Tuesday, May 19
128 day[s] or 18 weeks & 2 day[s] until Oregon on Tuesday, May 19
142 day[s] or 20 weeks & 2 day[s] until Dist. of Columbia on Tuesday, June 2
142 day[s] or 20 weeks & 2 day[s] until Montana on Tuesday, June 2
142 day[s] or 20 weeks & 2 day[s] until New Jersey on Tuesday, June 2
142 day[s] or 20 weeks & 2 day[s] until New Mexico on Tuesday, June 2
142 day[s] or 20 weeks & 2 day[s] until South Dakota on Tuesday, June 2
146 day[s] or 20 weeks & 6 day[s] until Virgin Islands (D caucus) on Saturday, June 6
147 day[s] or 21 weeks & 0 day[s] until Puerto Rico [R] on Sunday, June 7
Morning People…
Rick Wilson,one of the favorite neverTrump Republican commentators, says that Donald Trump Jr.s alledged candidacy in 2024, is no longer being treated as a joke.
His father loses?
He’s NOT gonna have a easy way in the party I’d think…
Polling sidebar updated….
No change in 3 days….
Morning People….
The Houston Astros, whom I believe had the best record in baseball last season, have fired their Manager and General Manager for their role in cheating during the team’s 2017 World Series winning season.
Wow, that’s the only title the Astros have ever won. I don’t think Cubs fans would be able to cope if it turned out 2016 was tainted.
The luckiest man in Houston today is the head coach of the NFL team which blew a 24-0 lead in yesterday’s playoff game. Nobody will even be talking about that now.
Implicated in the sign-stealing scandal is also the bench coach from that year who is the current Red Sox manager who won the World Series there in 2018. He is likely to get suspended for a year by MLB.
And Carlos Beltran, a former Astros player, who recently became the new Mets manager is also implicated.
All this 100 years after the “Black Sox” scandal.
Morning People…
james,
I see from your LinkedIn page that you listed “editing” and “television” as two of your most prominent skills, but I’m not sure what that means.
By “Editing” do you mean that you are effective in improving people’s writing skills?
By “Television” do you mean that you are effective at watching television? Or do you mean something else?
With those skills, how about setting up a P-Dog Podcast for Caucus Night and see how it goes? We can call in and give our expert analysis and insult each other that way.
james, CG May be on to something. You can pretend you are John McGlocklin (sp?)
A podcast might be fun. I took part in something like that the night of the 2008 Iowa Caucus that a kid from P1 was putting together.
“ISSUE FIVE!— Joe Biden’s fourth place finish… do all his opponents endorse him tonight or tomorrow. Discuss!”
Seriously “Television” is very vague. perhaps you mean acting, commentating, reporting, producing, filming? Or what?
Perhaps you have talents that we know nothing about. But if you are going to say you have them, then at least explain what the are.
Why should he?
He’s not asking us for money to do this blog. Well, not usually, and not very firmly at least.
Because he asks us to clarify what we mean. Why can’t we ask him?
He doesn’t tend to ask us to give professional/personal background information.
He’s talked about being an “educator” on here, so I think that is fair game, just as it would be for those who claim to have some special background or information regarding political matters. But if it’s something about his life that he hasn’t really brought up here that is just on a personal website, I think it’s a bit different.
He put it on his linkedin page for politicaldog101, not on his LinkedIn page with his actual name. If he put it on his real life LinkedIn page, then I would agree with you.
ok, I’ve not seen the page.
James, Are you going to answer my above questions? I don’t think they are unfair in any way.
Morning People….
CNN cuts from Trump talking about new China trade agreement to the Senate trial …
Looks like some right wing nut cases want to resurrect the career of former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens–who resigned in disgrace a year and a half ago.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/01/15/could_missouris_eric_greitens_make_a_political_comeback__142150.html
Morning People….
I agree Keith…
‘Real Americans will vote for the only candidate who can beat Trump. Hint, the Democrat!’
“Real Americans” will vote for the Democrat, the Republican, and others in November. Other people will not vote. Let’s stop this McCarthyite crap about who is a “Real American.”
And of course james refuses to commit to voting for anybody other than Biden and the others here overlook that because they find it more fun to target me. I’m honored.
James has gotten some criticism, but he often appears to not even understand the conversation. So he is often ignored when he says something foolish. At least you understand the conversation.
Also, James often forgets what he previously posted. Perhaps he is now willing to vote for the Democratic nominee – even if it is not Biden. You can ask him again if you think it is worth your time.
“Real Americans” does include Trump supporters.
Absolutely, a real American will vote to remove Trump from office.
And the only way to do that is to vote for the Democratic candidate.
Tidbits….
A new Morning Consult survey shows Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) retained his spot as the most popular senator in the country among his or her constituents.
On the opposite side, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) unseated Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as the most unpopular.
Politicalwire…
Republican Ray La Hood–former Congressman and Transportatiin Secretary–will be voting for Joe Biden
https://www.sj-r.com/news/20200115/ray-lahood-wont-vote-for-trump-backs-biden?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTkRFd01qUTNNRFJqTlRSayIsInQiOiJZdzNZRWtOcmJldDhmMFJBMXpvSU95UzVnNjNvYUkrWmpVNk04YmdOWVp0RUt3K1Y2ZldkNk5naUpwQW5XTUk1YThlTVFyaUVydEhUTlJScEs5Umd5Z1N1QmNpMnlGNUdJTmNmOWdIUGZyWFB4NFdPbDY3OXVsbFlJclNMc2k4WiJ9
He voted for Hillary too, He also said he didn’t think he could ever vote for Warren or Sanders. So probably james’ kind of guy (he has a reason to vote in the IL GOP primary though, unlike me, since his pro-Trump son is seeking reelection to Congress)
Maybe the fence-sitting Democrats will decide to remember people like LaHood and many others when they pick a candidate. Hopefully for them, it won’t be too late by then.
LaHood also said this- “But when Trump is gone, we’ll go back to some semblance of the Republican party that I grew up in, that Bob Michel grew up in, that Ronald Reagan really helped continue, as well as the Bushes.”
Must be ‘my kind of guy’….
I too believe that with Trump off the stage the Grand Ole Party will change…
Probably NOT completely back…
But NOT what it is now…..
Will the Mets be able to rebound from the stain of the Carlos Beltran Era? (0-0 record)
REBOUND??????????
You just did Joke of the week😆!
Three months ago, people would say the odds of the U.S. Senate convicting Trump would be as good as the January firings of 3 MLB managers, comprising the winners of the 2017 and 2018 World Series, and a guy who was literally just hired.
Why not try to have accountability in the government too?
Polling sidebar and primary countdown updates in the side bar…
Biden/Sanders margin about the same…
Warren and Bloomberg slight bump up…
I am pretty sure he would have voted for Obama in 2012 too. Keith probably knows.
But first things first. He is planning to vote in the IL GOP primary and said he will be casting a blank ballot for President. I intend on voting in the IL Dem primary (which is harder for me than you may ever know) and casting a vote for Bloomberg. Scott should send me some ravioli or something.
Ravioli? You know it’s toasted (i.e. deep fried) here right?
never tried it. Has to be better than the pizza there though.
Toasted Ravs are a great appetizer. St. Louis style pizza is good in small amounts. Like Chicago deep dish.
One advantage of NJ over IL is that the pizza in NJ is the best in the country. Seriously!
Yeah NY and NJ have the best pizza in the US.
I know Connecticut has a unique style of pizza that doesn’t sound too appetizing to me. But I’ve never tried it.
And Bagel’s
NY might haveHad the best bagels 20 years ago, but there are now good bagel places in other parts of the country, and there are some bagel places around me that are mediocre at best. However, there are more choices in the NJ/NY area.
I have voted in the GOP primary before – in both Illinois and in North Carolina. My biggest concern was hoping that no one I knew saw me and assume bad things about me.
I voted for the candidate who I thought would make the best elected official – and not for the candidate that would be easiest to defeat. In 1992, I voted for Bob Dole in the primary.
Must have been 1996. Sorry
Did you vote for Bob Kustra over Al Salvi for U.S. Senate?
I was a bit too young to vote in the 1996 primary, but I remember driving my mother to go vote in that primary in my Dole 96 bumper stickered car.
The Sunday before that primary, I got to see and meet Bob Dole at this rally at some Polish restaurant on the North Side. It was very exciting. The race was pretty much decided and down to him and Pat Buchanan by then.
I was very disheartened when Salvi beat Kustra, which was a major upset, of the pre Tea Party variety. Kustra would have had a great chance of preventing Durbin from ever being elected to the Senate, while Salvi was blown out.
I’ve voted in a couple of GOP primaries since becoming a Democrat. Last time was a decade or so ago. There was someone I really liked running for state office as a Republican and there were no contested Democratic contests in that primary.
in 1996 I was in North Carolina. I don’t recall those names. I assume those names were From Illinois?
Do not recall either of those names. I voted for other offices besides the President
The last three years feels like a whirlwind, I can’t get my head on straight with all the various news and the details.
I always say Billy Joel needed to do a sequel to the song We Didn’t Start The Fire. But now he could do two. One up until the end of the Obama presidency and then just the Trump presidency alone…
Goes Way too Fast!….
But hopefully fast enough to see DJT retired in Florida and maybe with a dacha in Russia….
Morning People….
My walk is gonna be cold this morning
It’s in the 20’s
Morning People…
I absolutely loved Ted Lieu’s response to Devin Nunes’s threatened lawsuit. Nunes is a litigious-happy Congressman who has frequently threatened lawsuits against
People or groups who were intent on exposing his corruption.
Lieu posted Nunes’s threatened lawsuit on Twitter and then welcomed the lawsuit and Nunes’s discovery testimony saying that the truth is a valid defense.
It is indefensible that such an obviously corrupt person could have risen so high in The GOP. I would be exceedingly, but pleasantly surprised if the Republicans remove this evil person from their leadership.
Nunes is just wasted space…
Morning People…
Sidebars have been updated….
On the RCP national averages?
Bloomberg appears about to overtake Buttigieg….
Biden is a hair ahead of Buttigieg in Iowa average…dated up to 1/12/2020….
Sanders then Biden in NH…
Biden then Sanders Nev…
Biden 2-1 over Sanders in SC…
Biden ahead of Sanders in Ca by a hair…
Biden then Warren in Tx…
Warren then Biden Mass
Remember Bloomberg is NOT running in the early state’s that Biden is likely to win before Money Mike even gets in…
Just got around to watching Friday night”s Bill Maher.
Joe Walsh said how impressed he was with Nancy Pelosi (an earlier guest) and said she should be President.
CG will want his money back!
I am still amazed that Walsh couldn’t get his name on his home state ballot.
If they would have tried to collect, you could have shown them some “tricks!”
KC seems on the way to the Super Bowl…..
don’t jinx them!
They WON….
They going to the BIG SHOW
Pelosi COULD handle the job ….
No problem
And she’s older than ALL of them…
The NY Times endorsed Warren and Klobuchar for President.
Quad City Times endorses Klobuchar. 👍
Heavily armed conservatives have gathered to Virginia to threaten lawmakers who are trying to control gun violence.
This (ahem) is the 102nd post to this particular open thread.
I just glanced at the calendar and thought “Why is January 20th so special?”
But that means it’s possible that the current president will only serve for one leap year more. And I’ve been counting the days.
Free at last, free at last, Thank God Amighty, we [may be] free at last!
And today is exactly two weeks before the Iowa caucuses.
So, one year from this moment is he holed up inside the White House while terrorist negotiators try to talk him out?
Or is Kanye finishing up his 25 minute Trump free-style on the West Side of the Capitol?
Biden ‘holded up’ u say CG?
Ok DSD…
New Thread coming