Just about all the other forecasts on the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination predict the same…
A Joe Biden capture….
Voting starts in less than a month…
The 538 model has Biden taking Iowa and Sanders taking New Hampshire…
After that?
The model’s have Biden with a straight flush winning in Nevada, South Carolina , California, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Massachusetts and most of the other state’s he would need to lock in the nomination by the end of the night of March 3rd, Super Tuesday, which is only about 2 months away…
This dog has been saying the same thing for a while here….
The new FiveThirtyEight model shows Joe Biden is currently favored to win the most delegates in Democratic presidential primary, but the race is still wide open.
image…USANews.Com
Update…
With a mix of relatively strong and relatively weak polls for each of the major candidates, the top line of our 2020 Democratic primary forecast has been roughly unchanged over the past several days.
In a race without a clear favorite, former Vice President Joe Biden remains the front-runner, with a 39 percent chance of winning a majority of pledged delegates. He’s followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders with a 23 percent chance, Sen. Elizabeth Warren with a 13 percent chance and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg with a 10 percent chance. The chance that no one will win a majority of pledged delegates is 14 percent. All of those figures are within 1 percentage point of when I last wrote about the forecast on Saturday….
More @ 538…