…from the Hill...
Former Vice President Joe Biden will hit the campaign trail in Iowa with three swing district Democrats in a bid to win over moderates in the crucial early-caucus state.
Biden will go on the tour this weekend with freshman Reps. Abby Finkenauer(Iowa), Chrissy Houlahan (Penn.) and Collin Allred (Texas), all of whom flipped GOP-held districts in the 2018 midterms and helped the Democrats retake the House.
The tour will send the four to Cedar Rapids, Oelwein, Waukon, Decorah, Waverly and Marshalltown over a two-day period, a rapid clip reflecting the full-court press Biden is making to win the support of Iowa voters ahead of the Feb. 3 caucuses.
“The Members of Congress will highlight the imperative that Democrats select a nominee that will not only ensure we beat Donald Trump, but also help the party win up and down the ticket next November in battleground districts and states,” Biden’s campaign said in a statement.
Biden has put his electability at the center of his campaign, arguing that a moderate is best suited to defeat President Trump in swing states in November.
Polling shows a tightly packed top tier in Iowa, with the Real Clear Politics average showing Biden with a slim lead over Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Sanders and Warren, who are stuck in Washington during the week for the Senate’s impeachment trial, are dispatching their top surrogates to Iowa to maintain their campaign’s presence in the Hawkeye State. …
Walter Shapiro: “Biden is drawing significantly smaller Iowa crowds than Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren. In fact, Biden may have played to more packed rooms in the run-up to the 2008 caucuses in which he limped home with an embarrassingly weak fifth-place finish.”
“Crowd size is often over-hyped in politics (see Trump, Donald), but turnout at candidate events matters in Iowa and New Hampshire. A significant fraction of early-state voters go out of their way to see candidates in person.”
“Biden supporters would argue that turnout at town meetings represents a flawed gauge since Iowa voters know him so well. But Sanders is also a familiar political figure—he is even recycling many of the same lines he used on the campaign trail in 2016—and yet he still draws huge crowds. His familiarity hasn’t dampened the enthusiasm for his candidacy.”
Politicalwire…
“Freed momentarily from the Senate’s impeachment trial, several presidential candidates high-tailed it to Iowa on Saturday for a last-minute blitz of campaigning before the state’s caucuses kick off the battle for the Democratic nomination,” the AP reports.
“The burst of campaigning comes as the contest for the Democratic nomination enters a critical — and volatile — phase.”
Politicalwire…
It’s true that attendance at public meetings, etc., might be a poor sample of all a state’s voters, but remember that the contest is not for the general Democratic electorate, but for those attending the precinct caucuses (or who might be persuaded to do so).
And my guess would be that the kind of voter who finds enough interest to attend a candidate appearance before the caucuses would also be the type most likely to attend the caucuses themselves.
Also remember that the candidates themselves aren’t promoting their campaigns at the caucuses; they’re usually relying on ordinary local voters to do so — so (unless an event backfires badly) the more information or enthusiasm they have, the better for the candidate’s chances at a local caucus.
I could be wrong but caucus and primary voters are NOT young voters….
and since they would tend to be older voters that actually show up?
moderate establishment candidates would probably do slightly better then their polling numbers?