PLEASE check this out….
Republican lawmakers maybe carrying the water for Donald Trump…
But I keep finding other Republicans that aren’t….
…from The Hill Op-Ed by John LeBoutillier…..
The new year will have two main storylines: the impeachment trial and the November election. Looking at these chronologically, here are some predictions on how both could turn out:
- The Senate impeachment trial — which two weeks ago seemed to be a slam-dunk whitewash for Donald Trump, engineered by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — now is the year’s biggest wild card. No one knows where this thing is headed.
- Do you recall in the Indiana Jones movie “Raiders of the Lost Ark” when the Nazis opened the Ark of the Covenant on a remote Mediterranean Island? At first, all they found in it seemed to be some harmless, ancient sand. But then odd things began happening: Electrical machines stopped working; spirits appeared and turned from “beautiful” to deadly. Soon, every bad guy was dead and only Indiana Jones and his partner survived.
- This impeachment trial will be similar: All sorts of political spirits will be unleashed. Already, three GOP senators are (slightly) breaking away — Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) are questioning the McConnell-led process, and now James Lankford (R-Okla.) has dared to criticize Trump’s character. Neither of these events would have happened before the House impeached Trump.
- The daily tracking polls are moving — albeit slightly — against Trump. In the MSN daily tracking poll, those who favor the president’s removal from office have grown since the Dec. 18 impeachment, to 55 percent; those opposed have fallen, to 40 percent.
- If there are compelling witnesses at the Senate trial, the polls might move toward 60 percent for removal. Then, all bets are off….
…
Meanwhile, former Vice President Joe Biden will have a very good February; Democratic voters — after sampling Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg — will return to Biden because of the one thing they care most about: defeating Trump in November. Biden is consistently ahead in the polls versus Trump — and Trump is spooked by Biden, which is why he orchestrated his Ukraine squeeze play and got impeached for it.
- Biden is the perfect anti-Trump candidate: decent, experienced, honest, kind. His contrast to Trump is clear as day. He will indeed be the Democrats’ nominee.
- The very first phone call Biden makes to ask someone to be his running mate will be to Michelle Obama. He knows a Biden-Obama ticket would be unbeatable — but, alas, Mrs. Obama has no interest in holding elective office.
- She and her husband will, however, campaign tirelessly for the eventual Joe Biden-Kamala Harris ticket; they will go to cities and suburbs and significantly increase Democratic turnout.
- The general election will see the highest voter turnout — in excess of 60 percent — since the last time we had such a bitterly divided nation, in 1968.
- Trump will lose massively in the popular vote and narrowly in the Electoral College.
- Why? Because, for three years, he’s made absolutely no effort to reach out to other voters; instead, he’s insulted anyone who dared to disagree with him.
- He either forgot or never understood that politics is the art of addition, not subtraction.
- Yes, he has a fiercely loyal base that he can count on — but there are not enough of those voters to win in an election where all the anti-Trump voters (women, young people, minorities) will make certain this time to vote instead of staying home as they did in 2016.
CG says
I think we are truly entereing 2020 with more unknown than ever.
I think Democrats will keep the House, but Republicans will gain seats. I think Republicans will keep the Senate, but Democrats will net at least one seat.
As for President, assuming Trump is the candidate and no major independent effort. I think there is a 25 percent likelihood of all four possibilities
Trump wins “bigger” than last time
Trump wins a squeaker
Trump narrowly ousted
Trump easily beaten
Biggest questions are obviously whom the Democrats will nominate and how they will perform when they are the “sole target” of Trumpworld.
jamesb says
He, he, he….
That’s ducking….
I stick to my Trump one termer…
I agree with the House gaining Dem seats…
And the Senate getting Dem’s to 48-50…But no more…
Scott P says
There will be no major independent effort.
Democratic Socialist Dave says
There was no significant independent or third-party vote in 1964, when the stakes were considered equally high.
Keith says
Not like these stakes, this is the rubber match, and we still have people making what about excuses for the Republican Party here.
I think predictions this far out are ridiculous. But, I have one, if Trump wins re-election our government will devolve into chaos. His actions tonight in Iraq, a country that the Bush boys bought for us, prove he’ll burn the country down to win the next election and avoid jail. Why people are still defending a party that supports this vile asshole is beyond me, but they are.