Morning Consult releases its weekly polling numbers…
Joe Biden has actually improved his standing in their polling since the last debate…
It does seem to this dog that every time the other candidates attack Biden?
His numbers climb…..
Morning Consult
@MorningConsult
NEW early-state tracking:
Biden: 33% (+4)
Sanders: 17% (-7)
Warren: 13% (-2)
Buttigieg: 11% (+2)
Steyer: 10%
Booker: 4% (+1)
Klobuchar: 3% (+2)
Yang: 3% (-1)
Bloomberg: 2%
Gabbard: 2% (+1)
…
Morning Consult
@MorningConsult
NEW 2020 national tracking is live:
Biden: 32% (+1)
Sanders: 21%
Warren: 14% (-1)
Buttigieg: 8% (-1)
Bloomberg: 6%
Yang: 4%
Booker: 3%
Klobuchar: 3%
Steyer: 3%
…
The Economist/You Gov poll out Christmas Day also shows Joe Biden with an upward bump…..
…
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Well, Biden is running on a fairly liberal platform (relative to Obama ’08/’12 and Clinton ’16 at least) while being perceived as quite moderate. He’s also polling pretty well in both the primaries and the general. It’s at least possible that he/his team know what they’re doing.
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Again, the lack of early-state polling makes this tricky. Our model is guessing that Biden and Bernie have surpassed Buttigieg in New Hampshire, for instance, based on trends in national polls. But, there’s no surefire way to know until someone polls NH. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Here are each Democratic candidate’s strongest and weakest states, as determined based on a combination of polls and a regression derived from demographic and geographic factors (including home-state effects).
Biden:
Strongest: MS, DE, AL, SC, LA
Weakest: VT, MN, IA, NH, HI
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Sanders:
Strongest: VT, RI, WA, CO, NV
Weakest: AL, DC, MD, DE, MS
Warren:
Strongest: MA, RI, ME, OK, CT
Weakest: MS, IN, DE, AL, SC
Buttigieg:
Strongest: IN, IA, NH, IL, ND
Weakest: MS, AL, LA, AR, WV
Note…
Yes…
Joe Biden IS strongest in the Red states where he enjoys strong black voter support…But?….He has little chance of winning in November’s election against Trump…
Something to think about….
I have been saying the below here for a while…
Steve Johnson 2019
@SteveJohnsonTFP
Replying to
Big Q: Will Amy, Cory, Yang, Tulsi, Mike drop out before 3/3 when Dems pick 1,300 delegates? If they pull Bernie or Liz below 15%, so Biden is only one who always wins delegates, it’s a runaway. Look closely at how Dems award delegates. It is front-loaded, rewards front-runner.
Biden has ticked up slightly in the RCP average against Trump and the other Democrats…
The state polls are almost ALL a month old…
A new poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a small lead over President Trump in Florida, a battleground state Trump narrowly won in 2016.
A Mason-Dixon survey released Tuesday finds Biden with a 2 percentage point advantage over Trump’s 45 percent. The poll has a 4-point margin of error.
Trump leads the other three top contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination, with a 4 point advantage over South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D), a 5-point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and a 9-point lead over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)….
More…
New polls….
Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
·
FLORIDA
Biden 47% (+2)
Trump 45%
@MasonDixonPoll
12/11-16
https://politico.com/states/f/?id=0000016f-586c-df23-a57f-5eeea2dc0001…
Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
·
FLORIDA
Trump 51% (+9)
Warren 42%
.
Trump 49% (+5)
Sanders 44%
.
Trump 49% (+4)
Buttigieg 45%
@MasonDixonPoll
12/11-16
…
Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
·
#National
@Harris_X_
/
@Thehill
Poll (12/27-28):
Biden 28%
Sanders 16%
Warren 11%
Bloomberg 11%
Buttigieg 6%
Booker 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Yang 2%
Castro 2%
Delaney 2%
Gabbard 2%
Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
·
Massachusetts Democratic Primary:
Warren 41%
Biden 35%
Sanders 13%
@efalchuk
/
@dinatale_lou
10/23-25
https://commonwealthmagazine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Mass.-poll-of-likely-Dem-voters.xlsx
Whoa!….
WTF is happening in Mass????
Biden seems to be riding a bit of a bounce?
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the field of Democratic presidential hopefuls by double digits a month ahead of the Iowa caucuses, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill.
The poll shows Biden registering 30 percent support among Democrats nationally. In a relatively distant second place is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who notched 17 percent in the survey.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is lingering in the No. 3 spot with 12 percent support. No other candidate registered double-digit support. Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg came in fourth place at 7 percent, while former tech executive Andrew Yang notched 3 percent support.
“Biden continues to be the front-runner but the surprise is really the growth of Sanders while Warren has shrunk,” said Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. “Just a few months ago this was a Warren race — today it’s more likely to come down to Biden vs. Sanders.” …
More…