Roll Call has ratings changes….
Even if the national political environment isn’t as bad for the GOP as the midterm elections when they lost 40 seats, there’s little evidence that President Donald Trump will dramatically improve his 2016 performance in key competitive House districts in 2020.
That makes it difficult to envision Republicans winning those races, particularly without a stellar candidate. And in some places, such as California and New Jersey, the GOP’s strongest House challengers (including Michelle Steel and Tom Kean Jr.) are running in difficult districts, against strong incumbents, or both.
With a combination of Republicans’ self-inflicted wounds, slow recruiting, or suburbs continuing to shift against the president, Democratic chances of winning improved in a dozen House races in recent weeks. Those rating changes include:
- Arizona’s 6th (David Schweikert, R) Solid Republican to Likely Republican
- California’s 25th (Vacant, D) Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
- Illinois’ 6th (Sean Casten, D) Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Illinois’ 13th (Rodney Davis, R) Tilt Republican to Toss-up
- Iowa’s 2nd (Open; Dave Loebsack, D) Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
- Iowa’s 4th (Steve King, R) Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
- Michigan’s 8th (Elissa Slotkin, D) Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
- Michigan’s 11th (Haley Stevens, D) Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Minnesota’s 1st (Jim Hagedorn, R) Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
- Minnesota’s 2nd (Angie Craig, DFL) Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
- New Hampshire’s 1st (Chris Pappas, D) Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Virginia’s 2nd (Elaine Luria, D) Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
One race shifted toward the GOP: Minnesota’s 7th District (DFL Rep. Collin C. Peterson) from Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic.
With those rating changes, the 2020 House battlefield now includes 39 vulnerable Democratic seats, 30 vulnerable Republican seats, and former Republican/independent Justin Amash’s district in Michigan.
Technically, Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to retake the majority….