This from Politico….
Which has Biden ahead with black and working class white’s…
And Sanders and Warren ahed with well educated white’s….
And the Hispanic vote split, with Sanders doing surprising well with that bloc…..
The Obama coalition seems fragmented the piece reports….
(Of course , the nominee this time could change things and win also)
The continuing uncertainty in the Democratic presidential primary has a hole the size of Barack Obama at its center.
One reason the race remains so unsettled is that none of the contenders has reassembled the winning coalition of groups that Obama coalesced during his 2008 run to the nomination, a model that Hillary Clinton largely followed to capture the prize in 2016.
Instead, only two months before the first voting begins in Iowa, the principal components of the Democratic coalition are fragmenting, with such key demographic groups as whites with and without college degrees, African Americans and Hispanics all tilting toward different contenders.
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The most consistent advantage that any Democrat has established among a major demographic group is former Vice President Joe Biden’s large lead among African Americans, who cast about one-fourth of the 2016 Democratic primary votes. Polls have consistently shown Biden with a commanding lead among black voters, especially older ones. The latest national Quinnipiac University poll put him at 43% among African American voters, roughly four times much as the next closest competitor, Sanders. Surveys by Quinnipiac in South Carolina, Fox News in North Carolina and Survey USA in Georgia have all shown Biden at 44% or more among African American primary voters, and at least 30 percentage points ahead of the next closest Democrat.
In a trend that may be worth watching, Biden didn’t register as big an advantage among black voters in two recent polls of Northern states: a Marquette University Law School poll that showed him and Sanders splitting them about evenly in Wisconsin and a New York Times/Siena College survey that put him around 30% with them in Pennsylvania. (Another NYT/Siena poll did give Biden a Southern-sized lead with African Americans in Michigan.) Among black voters, Biden has clearly benefited from the failure of the two African American candidates, Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Cory Booker of New Jersey, to build a solid base of support. (Harris withdrew from the race Tuesday.)
But Biden, especially in the earliest states, has not established an edge with the other key component of the Obama and Clinton coalitions: well-educated white voters. They are now the biggest bloc in the party, accounting for 36% of its primary voters in 2016….
James, If you did look at the Quinnipiac poll results before you gave your interpretation of them, you made some mistakes.
Biden especially does best among those voters who make under $50,000 a year, blacks, voters over 65, Democrats who self identify as conservatives or moderate, and voters who are paying little if any attention to the primary. He leads in other areas too, but he leads in these by the most.
Buttigieg leads everyone among non-college educated whites. This was the biggest surprise to me in the poll.
Sanders performs much better among non college educated than among college educated, while you correctly stated that Warren performs better with the college educated.
I have looked at the Q polls which seem to consistently be off from the rest of the pack, except for Gas which is on it’s own wave length…