He’s in fourth place in the national polling average….
He’s running ahead of Joe Biden is new Iowa polls, while Warren leads and Sanders follows by less than a percentage point..
He’s NOT on the charts in most of the other states going into Super Tuesday…
But he’s the new flavour of the day…
Joe Biden dropped to fourth place in Iowa, according to a new poll released Friday, his worst showing to date in the pivotal early state.
A few hours later, at the largest gathering to date for any 2020 event, it was clear why.
While Biden delivered a solid performance on stage before a crowd of 13,500 Democrats at the state party’s Liberty & Justice dinner, he was overshadowed and outshined by the candidate who just passed him in the polls — Pete Buttigieg.
At the massive state party event known for its catalytic effect on campaigns — it’s widely remembered as a turning point for Barack Obama’s Iowa fortunes in 2007 — Buttigieg captured the audience’s imagination, articulating a case for generational change.
“I didn’t just come here to end the era of Donald Trump,” Buttigieg said to a roaring crowd of supporters. “I’m here to launch the era that must come next.”
The South Bend, Ind., mayor’s speech offered an insight into his recent surge here, and why he is threatening to eclipse the former vice president in a state where Biden has been steadily losing ground since summer.
Ann Selzer, who heads the respected Iowa Poll, said her most recent poll showed 75 percent of those surveyed wanted a nominee who could inspire new voters to show up..
“Something I think is rather telling is those who want someone who represents a new generation of leadership,” Selzer said, noting that 57 percent of potential caucus-goers wanted new leadership versus 28 percent who wanted someone who had a long history of serving in government. “Who is that if it’s not Joe Biden?”….
…
“It’s coming down to the two of us,” Buttigieg told Heilemann. “Obviously there are a lot of candidates and a lot of things can happen, but I think that as that happens, the contrasts become clearer. The contrasts are real.”
Buttigieg’s rivals are likely to regard statements like that as some mixture of arrogance and audacity, as the mayor tries to persuade voters that he is the strongest alternative to Biden on the center left. The more he talks like that the more he will draw scrutiny and fire from the others, just as Warren has been drawing criticism the more she has risen both here and nationally….
image…JSOnline.Com
The Odds
(Fair and Balnaced as Always)
As of Today…
Biden…38%…If he loses both Iowa and NH, SC becomes much more competitive and he will go from front runner to simply a major contender
Warren…37%..Continues To Poll well but may have stumbled somewhat after delineating how she intends to pay for health plan.
Buttigieg…8%…Surging in polls.Still unclear where he actually wins.
Sanders …8%…Warren is now seen as The leftist candidate.Bernie still has his committed followers.Thats not enough and this is little evidence that his support is expanding.
Harris…4%…Fading polls, drying up money…Will likely do or die in S.C.
Booker…2%..Just isn’t catching on.Can explain away losses in Iowa and NH.How does he explain losing in S.C. ?
Klobuchar…2%…Biden has to stumble badly and ,even then, she must compete with Buttigieg.
Someone Else…1%…But who?
I largely agree with Jack, but I would instead put Warren as a very slight favorite over Biden (due to continued momentum and money) – although I give her lower odds than Jack. I think that the odds that someone other than Biden or Warren will get the nomination is better than 1 in 4.
I rate Biden’s odd’s as lower than Warren’s because I don’t believe he has the ability to run a good campaign.
Well…
I still have Biden as the nominee and making Trump a one termer….
The BETTER numbers you get?
The more negative media you get also….
The knives are out for South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, whose sudden rise ahead of the Iowa caucuses has provoked progressive anger and fresh attacks from Democratic rivals questioning whether the 37-year-old is the right candidate to take on President Trump.
Liberals are tearing at Buttigieg, viewing him as a threat to the left’s most ambitious policy goals such as “Medicare For All” and free college tuition. Buttigieg also has the full attention of former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign as the two battle for support from centrists.
While Buttigieg’s campaign once basked in glowing media profiles, he is getting tougher scrutiny from the press. Progressives have begun questioning his past consulting work. And a furious debate is raging over whether he will be able to attract enough support from black voters to win the primary…..
More…
U mind if make ur odds a post like I did before jack?
I don’t mind.