In the recent polling the South bend, Indiana Democratic Mayor is now rested in 4th place ….
He’s even higher in one Recent Iowa poll…
Here’s some comment’s from FiveThirtyEight on his gains….
sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): After the fourth Democratic debate in October, Pete Buttigieg hit 13 percent in a Suffolk/USA Today Iowa poll, coming in third, while Amy Klobuchar got her second qualifying poll for the November debate. And a FiveThirtyEight average of polls in Iowa since August actually showed Buttigieg had been overperforming there and in New Hampshire even before the fourth debate. So what do we make of this new post-debate narrative that maybe this isn’t just a two-candidate race, and there’s more potential for candidates like Buttigieg and Klobuchar to break out of the lower tiers of candidates. Do folks buy this? Are we headed for another Buttigieg surge?
natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): I think the narrative is mostly bullshit. Just want to get that on the record nice and early.
sarahf: 🔥
So why is it b.s.?
natesilver: Like, it’s possible he’ll surge, and I certainly think he had a good debate, and he’s probably gained a point or so, which isn’t nothing! But to say there’s been a big Buttigieg surge is so far from reality that, if you simply glance at a table of polls, it almost feels like gaslighting. He’s maybe gained a point or so in national polls.
geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): It’s definitely possible that the media wanted something new to talk about for the 2020 Democratic primary, and this gives them an opportunity to do that.
sarahf: But Nate, I don’t think anyone is going to argue that this is a bigsurge — or at least I’m not. But I do think his standing in Iowa or New Hampshire is much higher than what you would anticipate given where he is in the national polls.
geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, I found that Buttigieg was polling at about 9 percent in Iowa before the September debate and then at 11 percent after that debate. There haven’t been enough polls to see whether he’s really crept up a little bit more after the October debate, but it’s definitely possible.
Buttigieg was close to third in Iowa in Sept. polls
Average of Iowa polls for the five leading Democratic presidential candidates, before and after the third debate
| POLL AVERAGE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| CANDIDATE | BEFORE THIRD DEBATE | AFTER THIRD DEBATE | CHANGE |
| Elizabeth Warren | 21.3 | 23.0 | +1.7 |
| Joe Biden | 24.7 | 20.3 | -4.3 |
| Bernie Sanders | 17.3 | 12.0 | -5.3 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 9.3 | 11.3 | +2.0 |
| Kamala Harris | 8.3 | 5.3 | -3.0 |
natesilver: But his 13 percent in that USA Today/Suffolk poll is actually very typical of how he’s already been polling in Iowa. He’s had a lot of polls, both now and during his previous peak in the late spring/early summer, where he polled above 15 percent, in fact.
sarahf: Right, but how should we interpret his higher standing in Iowa or New Hampshire?
Is that meaningful at this point?
natesilver: He’s a good candidate for those states because (1) They’re really white, and his supporters are really white; (2) He’s got enough money to build out a good ground game; (3) He’s got a regional advantage in Iowa by being one of the few Midwsterners in the race.
So I take his chances in Iowa pretty seriously! I just don’t think anything much has changed about them over the past week.
image..Politico
Tulsi Gabbard says she’s not running for re-election to the House to “concentrate “on her presidential race.
Now no one believes she has the slightest chance to become the Democratic nominee.
Then last night she was appearing on Sean Hannitys program and criticizing the Democratic Impeachment probe.
Does any of this prove she is a Russian “asset?” Of course not.
However, it does lend credence to the idea that she may be considering a third party bid.Indeed her days as a “Democrat” may be numbered.
Nate Silver says that Tulsi supporters tend to be more “contrarian trolls “ than anti establishment liberals and that any third party bid by her may hurt Trump more than the Democratic candidate in that many of his supporters are just that…
“Contrarian trolls..”
Going on Hannity was suspect if you ask me
Props to Hillary?
Yeah lots of Democratic primary voters watching the leading Republican propaganda show in the country.
Pete Buttigieg’s chief of staff will replace him as the mayor of South Bend, the South Bend Tribune reports.
James Mueller beat his Republican opponent, a government teacher at the local high school, with about 65% of the vote….
Politicalwire…