I’m staying out on a limb and continue to think that Donald J. Trump has a little bit more than a year in office….
Yup….
I’m sticking to my story….
I do NOT think he’s gonna lose his job with an conviction of wrong doing from the Us Senate jury….
I DO think he will be impeached , the same as indicted….
But?
Yea… I think he won’t have 20 or so Republican Senators join Democrats in voting against him….
So he’ll be able to get over from Special Prosecutor Mueller’s probe and also the House….(Some don’t think a Senate non-convict will help Trump at all…dismissing the Clinton resulting climb in the polls effect for Trump…)
So why would he lose come next year?
Several Reasons….
The Economy…
The American economy is mushy and will IS slowing….
Bill Clinton had a good economy after his trail…
Trump won’t…
Trump’s tainted History...
Running for the Presidency the first time?
Donald Trump had no real political history…
This time?
He’ll have plenty…
Most of it NOT to good although he’s gonna shine it up…
Noise….
The chaotic Trump Presidency has made a lot of wishing for some steadiness and normalcy in the national leadership….
Trump is incapable of such a thing…
Voters….
Donald Trump HAS kept his base over the last three years….
But?
That’s ALL…
Few care to remember that Trump LOST the popular vote by almost 3 MILLION votes…
He won his current job by almost 70,000 votes in only a few states…
Granted, he won the election in the last few weeks , after trailing Hillary Clinton almost the whole time, and almost NOBODY saw it coming…
Trump a year out from the election is TRAILING the top three Democrats Biden, Warren and Sanders in almost all of the ‘swing’ states Trump manueverd away for Hillary Clinton in the last month of the 2016 campaign….
I could be wrong…
But economic conditions and promises unkept in those state’s are gonna make it difficult for Trump to get over a second time…..
Election Projection and few others pundits sites ARE predicting a loss by Trump next year...Rachel Bitecofer got the 2016 Trump victory right and also is calling Trump’s time in office to be over in January 2021…
I’m with them…
image…New York Times
New Open Thread is HERE….
Morning people…..
Former U.S. Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) has passed away at the age of 66. Sad news.
And while we read endless “tales” of how Republicans are “turning” on Trump and how his Syrian pullout was going to cost him and how there was this gradual shift against him and how Republicans were going to do the “right” thing about impeachment, etc etc etc.?
The Gallup Pol, shows that Donald Trumos Approval rating among Republicans is at 87% ?For comparison sake it was 89% on Inauguration Day.
In other words ,despite the continuing “wishcasting” you read on this site ?Donald Trumps support is almost exactly where it was the day he took office.
He has suffered NO ill effect among Republicans for all the supposed terrible things he has said and done that we are told would cause Republicans to turn against him..total BS!
They are all “in.”
The Gallup Poll from 10/1- 10/13? That’s the last one on their site. Things have happened since. Why don’t you wait a few days.
No I googled it.
It’s there
..But yeah I guess I made it up..
This is ridiculous.
Has a new Gallup poll been released? What are the survey dates.?I think they are scheduled to release one around Thursday.
I was quoting the results for October 1-13.
And what I’m quoting is “among Republicans “Not his overall approvals which of course are much lower
What is remarkable is that his numbers .among Republicans ,essentially stay within a five point or so area in the mid Eighties and have throughout his presidency except for a brief dip in the early months.
and many things have changed from 10/1 to 10/13 (which is a very long sample anyway). We all know how quickly things develop in the news cycle. Things have not “gotten better” for Trump over the past two weeks. I think they have gotten worse.
In a few days,w hen Gallup updates their findings, we can compare D, I, and R and what has changed since their last poll.
Fair enough?
You are so desperate to “prove” that Republicans are turning on Trump that it’s laughable.
They’re not ,for the simple reason that they Agree with him.
i just would want to see the most recent numbers as they relate to *everyone* in the electorate instead of something that is from 10/1-10/13, which is dated at this point.
Gallup no longer does daily or even weekly tracking polls. It’s basically a once a month poll. So, let’s wait until the most recent one comes out before delving into it.
Oh it doesn’t matter,you and James will still seize on any irrelevant mildly critical comment by some Republican as indicating that there is “movement “against Trump.
We have all seen this script over the past couple of years
And oh yes two weeks ago is “dated.”
What a Joke!
Look ,you know very well ,and it is much quoted on myriad political sites ,that Trumps support among Republicans has remained remarkably stable throughout his term with but minor variations within a fairly narrow number around the mid eighties.
Yet hope dies hard that as you say Republicans will eventually “do the right thing.”
I guess that’s all you have to hang onto.
Sad in a way.
Two weeks ago is dated, especially when the poll dates all the way back to 10/1.
Was Syria even a big part of the news cycle the first week of October? I think a lot has happened, including a lot of frustration among Republicans during the period of 10/14 to 10/28. We can be a little patient and see what the data says.
Why are you so cranky today?
Hope dies hard doesn’t it?
I still believe in a place called Hope.
Matt Gaetz doesn’t like profane words.
A panel of judges ruled Monday that North Carolina’s 2020 congressional elections must happen under new maps to correct partisan favor, the News & Observer reports.
Why it matters: The current Republican-drawn maps were ruled as unfair to voters and will head back to the state legislature for redistricting, likely with significant consequences for control of Congress in 2020. The ruling does not require an outside expert to take over the districting process, and no strict deadline was set for the procedure.
It’s unclear if Republicans intend to accept or appeal the ruling. After a separate loss last month over state legislature lines, Republicans cooperated and redrew the districts within an allotted two-week period.
But, but, but: While there was no strict deadline set, judges did note that they would delay the state’s 2020 primaries if new maps weren’t in place….
Axios….
Morning People….
Greg Mankiw, former economic adviser to President George W. Bush, writes that he’s no longer a Republican.
“First, the Republican Party has largely become the Party of Trump. Too many Republicans in Congress are willing, in the interest of protecting their jobs, to overlook Trump’s misdeeds (just as too many Democrats were for Clinton during his impeachment). I have no interest in associating myself with that behavior. Maybe someday, the party will return to having honorable leaders like Bush, McCain, and Romney. Until then, count me out.”
Politicalwire…
Republican pollster Frank Luntz says that the baseball fans who booed Trump should be held “accountable.”
How exactly do you do that Frank?
Lynch them, impeach them and then lock them up.
Yea ‘accountable’ like him?
No wonder the guy doesn’t venture anyplace he doesn’t have a captive audience….
The ole’ emperor thing, eh?
There is a BIG opportunity currently being missed out on by someone.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/surprising_number_say_third_party_presidential_vote_likely_in_2020
Keep dreaming. You won’t even have a McMullin to vote for next year. My guess is he endorses the Democratic nominee.
I just said a big opportunity is being missed since nobody has started the process yet. Maybe Mr. Sporting Goods can, but someone should have started working towards this at the beginning of the year. I think it is fairly likely though that there will be someone on the ballot in many states that is not a write-in.
Clearly, a lot of people feel the way I do about Trump vs. the Democrats. Thirty-eight percent. A strong third option would very much be a possibility to be elected.
This speaks to the fundamental weakness of both parties are currently constituted. If nothing changes though, and it is basically a two person race, many will vote for Trump just out of fear of the Democrats, and vice versa.
Americans have Always been more enamored of the “idea” of a third party than the reality thereof.
Many polls over the years showed similar numbers.
The Reform Party(Ross Perot), the National Unity Party(John Anderson), the American Independent Party(George Wallace ) where art ye?
And we have seen examples of this historically, Remember, the Republican Party started as a “third party.” Teddy Roosevelt came in 2nd place in 1912, beating the incumbent, Then George Wallace and others, then Ross Perot, as nutty as he was, got 19 percent. He would have done a lot better if he were a better candidate.
There has not been a “real third choice” in modern history. I think the appetite for it now is as high as it has ever been. Is there a poll that can be cited that would have shown this?
As I have said several times I believe rbe 6% achieved by the assorted third parties in 2016 was a high note.
In 2020 it could easily by half than that or less.
If Justin Amash is the Libertarian nominee he might crack 1%. No one else would I don’t think. The Greens are rightly viewed as suspect now by progressives so they’d likely linger at far less than the 1.5% Stein got.
And no one is stepping up to run a significant independent bid. Unless you count rumors that the Dicks Sporting Goods guy is gonna jump in.
As I said, “missed opportunity.”
Someone like Kasich or Governor Hogan or Governor Baker or General McChrystal or someone else with “gravitas” and cross ideological appeal should have started taking the steps months ago with the anticipation that they would be facing Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren and the sheer desperation that choice will bring about.
What does it tell you when everyone who could have put skin in the game opted not to?
Humans tend to be risk-averse, especially these days.
Thank goodness for the Founding Fathers who were a sturdier lot.
Or it could be that the demand isn’t there as much as your wishful thinking and this Rasmussen poll would have you think.
Not a single one of those names has made a peep about running third party.
In the 1990s in addition to Perot you had big names like Colin Powell and Bill Bradley openly musing about running as independents.
What exactly would be the basis of this party you propose?
That number you cite includes people who think the Democrats aren’t left enough and are corporate sellouts ala Joe Biden , and people who think the Republican Party Are establishment sell outs ala Mitt Romney.
Where is the philosophical mbasis for a “party.”
Just anger at the two present parties?That was the main motivation of earlier movements.
You can dream about this all you want.
The two party system is simply too enmeshed in the American political psyche.Maybe someone will try it again and they can join Perot and Anderson as asterisks in American presidential election history.
Anger at ideological extremism, divisive rhetoric, etc.
This has been seen recently in other countries. No, they are not America, but it’s still instructive. An “independent” was elected in France. In Israel, it took remnants of two major parties basically coming together strategically to defeat a Prime Minister (apparently.)
Tribalists just don’t get it. You just want to keep playing the same musical chairs until the music stops.
One day, for some reason, Realignment will come to America, as it already has at least twice before.
“Tribalists just don’t get it”
Ha! Someone who voted for wackjob Alan Keyes calling others tribalists!
It’s like the town drunk preaching the sober life.
You don’t think people can change? You used to vote third party all the time for one.
But considering the hand I was dealt in the Keyes vs. Obama race, my vote was logical.
I am not begrudging you the right to vote for the quasi-socialist of your choice against a Republican in the Presidential race or any other race. If that person truly represents your values, you *should* vote for them.
Just don’t tell me I do not have the same right to best seek out a way to represent my values when I vote.
A vote for Keyes was “logical”?? .
Lol
I agreed with him on almost every issue in 2004, I knew he would not win, but was voting symbolically against a politician I disagreed with on almost everything.
I had no role in nominating him.
Your first sentence is what many of your fellow Republicans say about Trump in 2020
Sure, I don’t agree with Trump on almost every issue. Even if I did, I find him morally unacceptable.
Gotta go.
Well since you find Alan Keyes “morally acceptable” maybe he can be your 3rd party choice next tear. Though I’m pretty sure he’s all in for Trump. Both are bombastic right wingers.
Here we go…..
George Papadopoulos, a former Trump campaign aide who was a key figure in the FBI’s Russia probe, filed paperwork Tuesday to run for the U.S. House seat being vacated by Democrat Katie Hill.
Papadopoulos didn’t immediately comment, but on Sunday he tweeted, “I love my state too much to see it run down by candidates like Hill. All talk, no action, and a bunch of sellouts.”…
More…
He pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI last year….
Morning everyone….
Vote for who you want. Jack and I are just pointing out why a third party won’t make it next year.
I feel very bad for anybody who is suffering in Southern California due to the wildfires. Thankfully, it seems like it was able to be stopped from damaging the Reagan Presidential Library and the eternal resting place of the President and First Lady.
Spare a thought, too, for Keith and his neighbors in the Wine County north of San Francisco Bay.
Yes …..
I hope for the safety of those in that region…
Did anyone here (besides Keith) watch the HBO series, “Veep?” I have now finished all 7 seasons.
I actually think the first season felt the most realistic and they could have done more with the concept of her just being a fairly forgotten VP, but it was always pretty over the top right from the start.
Then of course all sorts of crazy stuff happened, that we say can never happen in “real life”… Presidential resignations, Electoral College tie, brokered convention, etc. etc.
An interesting aspect is that while such a thing was never technically said, Selina Meyer was clearly a Democrat, and yet un-redeemable as a person and a politician. I am certain the writers, etc, were liberals, and it is somewhat surprising they were willing to do that, but I guess it worked better for her and her staff and allies/rivals in the party to be Democrats.
I’m bored.
Except for the West Wing most political shows try to keep the partisan identity of the main characters vague.
I’ve only seen a few episodes of Veep but from what I remember they allude to their being two parties but we never hear the words Democrat or Republican or have the characters identified as such right?
I know the 1990s sitcom “Spin City” kept the partisanship of the mayor a secret.
The original movie with Michael Douglas and Annette Benning that gave birth to West Wing was good also….
It’s been playing this month on cable …
I loved watching the ‘West Wing’….
It should be required viewing for those taking American Politics courses…
The Washington Nationals (formerly the Montréal Expos) win the World Series on the road in their seventh game. Washington (NL) 6
Morning People….
The Washington Nationals (formerly the Montréal Expos) win their first World Series on the road in their seventh game. Washington (NL) 6 – 2 over the Houston Astros (AL).
This is only the third time (after 1906 and 1996) that the home team has lost all seven games of a Series to the visitors.
For CG and other detail-obsessed watchers, the FEC’s biennial election results for all Federal offices in 2018 has finally come out. Available as either a PDF or an Excel spreadsheet here:
https://www.fec.gov/introduction-campaign-finance/election-and-voting-information/federal-elections-2018/
In another weird episode, Trump ,commenting on the shooting of Republican Congressman Steve Scalise ,noted that Scalise wife “cried her eyes out ‘ and that he found that unusual.Then he said his wife wouldn’t have reacted that way.
“Weird “is the word.
Well here’s a new Poll from the Associated Press and it shows,Surprise!,that 85% of Republicans Approve Of Trump.
It’s all rather boring .We are constantly told here to just wait for the next poll .That it will show”slippage”;in Trumps support.They never do Of course.
And why should they?Republicans have proven they don’t give a damn about the negative news regarding Trump.They don’t care about his moves in Syria, or the revelations of his trying to get Ukraine involved in American politics.
Hell ,almost Fifty percent of them concede that he’s is “not honest.”Still they are in full support.Most say he “excites “ them.
Yet ,we will continue to hear this rigamarole about Republicans “turning on” Trump.
Ref: Jack’s poll comment…
A new AP/NORC poll finds 42% of Americans approve of President Trump’s handling of his job, in line with where he has been throughout his tenure. Just 7% of Democrats have a positive view of Trump as president.
“Trump’s job approval rating and other markers in the survey underscore the deeply divisive nature of his presidency, with Republicans largely favoring his actions and Democrats overwhelmingly disapproving. As Trump eyes his reelection campaign, it suggests his path to victory will hinge on rallying higher turnout among his core supporters as opposed to persuading new voters to back his bid for a second term.”
Also interesting: 61% of Americans say Trump has little or no respect for the country’s democratic institutions and traditions….
Politicalwire…
Hey Keith?…
U ok with the fires out there?
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) plans to hand the chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary Committee back to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa.) in the next Congress.
Graham took over the panel this year from Grassley, who left to chair the Senate Finance Committee.
Politico…
Polling update tomorrow….
Biden cruising ….
New poll shows Trump’s overall approval at 38%
Among Republicans 74%–down sharply from 87% in the same poll a few months ago.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/americans-divide-49-47-impeachment-criticism-sides-poll/story?id=66664687&mc_cid=d172a01cd6&mc_eid=fa2261f348
Oh SHIT!…..
We’ll wait for another poll to confirm…
But IF this IS confirmed?
Donald J. Trump IS in DEEP SHIT…..
Polling post coming…
But yet no more than two or three Republican Senators will vote to convict in the face of overwhelming evidence that Trump has broken the law. Real profiles in courage.
I noticed the conversation about Veep the other day, have been a little too busy to follow consistently here lately, and I need to take exception. The writers are brilliant and, given what we are experiencing right now, reality imitates art. Veep was ahead of the curve on so many issues like an American President telling a Chinese leader that they will ignore human rights abuses for something in return or the fact that Selina throws her assistant under the legal bus. In the last two seasons the writers mirrored the insanity of this Republican Administration and the many low life’s it has working for it.
Point is, the story line from mine, and so many other folks who have worked in DC, is spot on.
Now if we could only get Trump and Pence to flash forward to the end.
Agreed Keith.
If Jonah Ryan were real he would likely be a post Trump Presidential candidate.
And just to clarify–a real life Jonah Ryan would be a Republican Post Trunp candidate. No doubt.
Jonah Ryan was a Democrat. His politically connected Uncle got him started. And he married his half-sister.
Amazing though that he had such a base among Democrats that Selina picked him to her final running-mate.
She should have gone with Splett.
See, it’s official. He was a Democrat.
He even looks like Beto
https://veep.fandom.com/wiki/Jonah_Ryan
His rallies were clearly Trump Republican hate fests.
Keep dreaming
Jonah Ryan is a political opportunist, a person without real conviction, who said anything to get attention, and fostered the weirdest political beliefs (especially about daylight savings time, but please remember to turn your clocks back).
He was Gym Jordan, Mark Meadows, and Steven Miller all rolled into one. Jonah, by all measures, was written to be what a Republican sounds like today.
The writers knew what they were doing.
More Republican obsession with Hillary Clinton–Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson wants the emails that Hillary sent to Obama. Why? See the third and fifth word in my post for that.
Breaking News:
After being compared to Jonah Ryan on PoliticalDog101 earlier this morning, former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke has dropped out of the 2020 Presidential contest.
In my opinion, Biden benefits the most with Beto dropping out.
I like Beto but he ahiuld hace stepped back and took a breather after his impressive Senate shpwing last year.
Running for President was a mistake.
He’s young though. He could run for Texas Governor in 2022
Halloween could have inspired him to embark on a career as “Slenderman.”
What an ironic statement!
The post Trump Repubican Party has a candidate
https://www-independent-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.independent.co.uk/voices/kanye-west-2024-president-election-running-republican-jesus-king-album-a9181201.html?amp_js_v=a2&_gsa=1&&usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D#aoh=15726538208983&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fvoices%2Fkanye-west-2024-president-election-running-republican-jesus-king-album-a9181201.html
Scoff not: I was in California in 1966, when people incredulously asked “Can a Movie Star Become Governor ?” — answered in the affirmative not once but twice.
Of course, if either was as eccentric bordering on crazy as Kanye West, he was a skilled-enough thespian to keep that very well-hidden.
“Fire in Paradise”, the PBS Frontline documentary about last year’s incredibly-destructive fire in Butte County, California, is very well worth watching.
It might be my imagination, but it appears to me that California fires have been more frequent than in past decades.
Not your imagination at all Zreebs, they have increased in frequency and intensity.
Per James’s question: we have been evacuated for a week now as the Kincaid fire raged in Northern Sonoma County. We will try to return home this afternoon. Fire equipment still all over our hillside and the Sheriff may refuse entry. House is fine, but will require cleanup from the flame retardant.
The fact that the Republican Party refuses to acknowledge climate change is reason enough to oppose them at election time.
One report I saw said that the almond growers used eucalyptus as a wind break. Having been next to the Oakland Hills/Claremont fire” in 1991, this seems totally crazy to me.
Eucalyptus were imported unsuccessfully from Australia by William “Borax” Smith around 1900; he planted the wrong sex, so the yields were paltry.
But eucalyptus do suck up much of the ground water, while the oil in dry eucalyptus is incredibly flammable. They were a major reason that the small fire at one end of the tunnel connecting Oakland and Contra Costa County spread so rapidly and so intensely into the neighbouring hills in 1990.
Needless to say, planting eucalyptus is now frowned upon in the Bay Area.
Morning….
My prediction for Kentucky Governor:
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2019/11/kentucky-governor-election.html
Am I giving the Democrats too much hope on this?
Morning People ….
Morning All….
I cannot link directly to my blog from this computer, but I have posted detailed write-ups on Kentucky and Mississippi Governor. (I will revisit Louisiana perhaps before the final voting later this month)
KY- Tossup (D)
MS- Leans R
Any thoughts? Maybe these states no longer matter to some since they are not going to go blue in the 2020 Presidential election.
When I wrote my latest weekly blog entry on the Presidential contest, I hit on several things that happened during the week but said I was likely to miss something.
I totally forgot all about the al-Baghdadi raid and did not mention that at all. A fairly major but unintentional oversight. To some that would certainly make me “fake news.”
I haven’t followed either closely.
Of course I would expect the Republicans to win both ,as Mississippi and Kentucky have been voting consistently Republican for awhile now.
No Republican has ever been reelected Governor of Kentucky. The current incumbent was a bit of a fluke winner last time and has all sorts of problems. I am going way out on a limb saying Tossup (D) but that’s what conventional wisdom would point to. Not much at all in the way of polls, but one had the Democrat up by 19 points. Few people believe it though. The election being nationalized will help the Republican there, but will it be enough? If Bevin loses, there will be a lot of surprised Republicans.
i will post ur predictions if want …
I’ll link to them in the comments if you put up a thread about the states voting for Governor tomorrow. Otherwise, no big deal.
Democrats are at least competing in both of these races, but I would be surprised if the GOP didn’t win both.
Just my own guess.
It’s theoretically possible that Democrats could win all three southern Governorships this cycle.
In Louisiana and Mississippi, the Democrat nominees are both running as unabashedly Pro-Life and and anti-gun control and are reluctant to say anything at all critical about Trump.
The candidate in Kentucky is more of a “moderate” but also trying to play up that aspect. His father was Governor for eight years before Bevin took over.
Lot of state polling dropped today…
Post coming later….
Some surprise’s
Morning people…
Rand Paul kisses Trump’s butt….
Family Connections?…who’s this guy’s Daddy?.
The Hill
@thehill
Sen.@RandPaul
: “Hunter Biden made $50,000 a month. That’s the definition of corruption. We know he got it only because of his family connections.”
twitter….
Assailants have killed at least nine members of a fundamentalist Mormon family in northern Mexico, authorities reported Tuesday, burning alive a woman and her children in a brutal assault that highlighted the growing danger posed by organized-crime groups around the country.
Alfonso Durazo, the minister of public security, told a news conference that three women and six children were killed. They were part of a community of U.S.-Mexican dual citizens.
The vicious attack stunned a nation still reeling from an assault by Sinaloa Cartel gunmen on the city of Culiacan last month, which forced the government to hand over the son of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán shortly after he was captured.
President Trump tweeted that “a wonderful family and friends from Utah got caught between two vicious drug cartels, who were shooting at each other, with the result being many great American people killed.” He offered to help Mexico strike back at the cartels, saying they “have become so large and powerful that sometimes you need an army to defeat an army!”
More…
Donald Trump Jr. joked on CBS News that his “favorite Democrat” is Mitt Romney, Utah’s Republican senator.
Trump Jr. also said “there are very few people” his father can “fully trust.”…
Politicalwire…
The Roger Stone circus is going on trial.
Starting Tuesday, Stone, the conservative provocateur and longtime adviser to Donald Trump, will be in federal court fighting charges that he obstructed a congressional investigation into whether the president won the 2016 campaign with the help of Russian hackers.
Story Continued Below
At first, the case may seem like a lingering sideshow from special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe. But the three-week trial could offer juicy tidbits about the Trump campaign …
More…
New Open thread tonight….