In the latest LA Times poll Elizabeth Warren clearly holds first place…
There have been several polls recently that withe MOE there was more of a tie…
Not in this one…
Elizabeth Warren is STILL going up while Biden holds in place a Sanders is dropping in the polls…(Warren seems to be the best campaigner of the three)
This is just one poll…
But Warren has to be smiling and Biden need to be worried….
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has jumped to a significant lead in the Democratic presidential race in California, solidifying her position as a front-runner for the party’s nomination, according to the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, conducted for the Los Angeles Times.
The contest in California has shifted in important ways since June, when the Berkeley IGS poll last surveyed the state’s voters for The Times. At that point, the race here had no clear front-runner. Although Warren was among the top candidates, her support was heavily concentrated among college-educated white voters and those who described themselves as “very liberal.”
The new poll shows Warren has widened her base of support and begun to separate herself from her rivals. She’s the first choice of 29% of likely Democratic primary voters, up from 18% in June, the poll finds.
“We appear to be at an inflection point in the Democratic presidential campaign,” said Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS poll. “The changing voting preferences of California Democrats may be a harbinger of things to come elsewhere across the country.”
As Warren has risen, her two closest rivals, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, have remained stuck in place. The poll finds the two essentially tied for second, with Biden at 20% and Sanders at 19%, both only slightly different from their positions in June. California Sen. Kamala Harris has slipped to a distant fourth, at 8%.
A lead for Warren in California matters in part because the state will have by far the largest number of delegates at next summer’s Democratic nominating convention — 497, of whom 416 will be allocated through the March 3 primary to candidates who win at least 15% of the vote either statewide or in specific congressional districts — but also because California’s Democratic voters reflect the ethnic and racial diversity of the party nationwide.
Other recent surveys have shown Warren gaining ground nationally and in states that hold the earliest contests in the nominating process. A Des Moines Register poll on Saturday showed her leading in Iowa, and a poll from Monmouth College on Tuesday showed Warren and Biden essentially tied in New Hampshire….
image..geekwire.com
I’m waiting to see if the media EVER throws AGAINST Warren anything like Biden…
She continues to be the flavour of the month for them….
And it seems to be working for her….
So, you are saying there is a biased liberal media?
It is getting foolish in saying that Warren is the “flavor of the month”. Her rise in the polls has been steady over many months.
I’ve said for awhile that Warren is very serious candidate for the nomination and is starting to push Biden for “frntrunner” status.
That “flavor of the month” routine is another one of James’s favorite put downs for candidates he doesn’t like.
I predicted Warren as the 2020 Dem nominee years ago.
New California poll….
Likely voters identifying as registered Democrats or as Democratic-leaning independents support Elizabeth Warren (23%), Joe Biden (22%), and Bernie Sanders (21%) at levels well above Kamala Harris (8%) and Pete Buttigieg (6%). No other candidate is preferred by more than 3 percent, and 9 percent say they don’t know which candidate they prefer. However, among voters with a candidate preference, more than half (53%) would consider supporting another candidate….
PPIC @ Politicalwire….
Surpringly poor numbers for Harris given her home state
indeed….
Almost all of the original Public Policy Inst. of Calif. poll summary deserves reading. Among other things, it shows a strong pro-immigrant sentiment across the state (71%) and approval ratings for both Senators Harris & Feinstein at 40%. There’s much, much more about e.g. abortion rights (heavy support) and gun possession.
As for the horse-race, the margins of error are between 3.2% and 4.2% for all candidates, so for all useful intents and purposes, Biden, Warren & Sanders are just about even but well ahead of any of the other candidates.
“An overwhelming majority of Californians (71%) see immigrants as a benefit to the state because of their hard work and job skills. At least six in ten have held this view since January 2013. Across regions, residents of Los Angeles (76%) are the most likely to view immigrants as a benefit (73% San Francisco Bay Area, 72% Orange/San Diego, 67% Central Valley, 67% Inland Empire). Older adults (59% 55 and older) are much less likely than younger adults (79% 18 to 34, 76% 35 to 54) to view immigrants as a benefit.
“Half of Californians worry a lot (29%) or some (21%) that someone they know could be deported. Across regions, the level of concern is highest in the Inland Empire, with 41 percent saying they worry a lot (30% Los Angeles, 29% Central Valley, 26% Orange/San Diego, 26% San Francisco Bay Area).”
“Among all Californians, about one-third (30% adults, 35% likely voters) approve of the job President Trump is doing, with wide partisan divisions. The president’s approval ratings were similar in January 2019 and last September. Fewer than half approve of the job being done by US senators Dianne Feinstein (40% adults, 44% likely voters) and Kamala Harris (40% adults, 43% likely voters). Roughly half (49% adults, 51% likely voters) approve of their own representative in the US House, well above the share approving of Congress overall (33% adults, 24% likely voters).”
“Amid concerns about America’s voting system, how confident are Californians about the system in their state? Just over one-third have a great deal (18%) or quite a lot (18%) of confidence, down from October 2004 (26% great deal, 25% quite a lot). There are partisan differences in concerns about the system: Democrats (50%) and independents (43%) are more likely than Republicans (34%) to believe it is too hard for eligible people to vote, while Republicans (79%) are more likely than independents (53%) and Democrats (43%) to believe it is too easy for ineligible people to vote”
one the most detailed polls so far….
NOT a good look for Harris…..
While things don’t look good for Harris,she might and I emphasize “might” have a shot at acomeback in SC.
For that to materialize ,however ,Joe Biden must lose in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
If that happens then Harris (or Booker ) may be able to make a case to the Overwhelmingly Black primary electorate in South Carolina where Biden currently leads.
I am not predicting such ,but the odds ,which today look rather small ,could shift dramatically ,if Biden falters early! In articles circulating locally and general talk among Black political leaders the constant refrain is “we are with Biden,For Now (emphasis added.)”
No…
Warren fits the horse race come from behind scenario that the media loves…
She IS getting her numbers…
But she will have to be able make inroad’s to Biden’s moderate and black support….
Biden has a stronger headwind to face…
So, then you what are you complaining about? You are saying she has earned the positive media by coming back, Did the media do that or did she do that?
At the end of the day, Biden is still an old, white, Christian, straight, male candidate in a party that wants something different than that. He also has a lot of weaknesses as a candidate beyond that.
At the end of the day CG?
Tell me how many negative stories have hit the media about Warren and Biden?
Warren is a 70 year old, straight, white , Christian women…
Huh?
But she’s a woman, and has like 1/1000th Native American blood.
She’s also slightly younger and doesn’t make gaffes as regularly.
The Biden campaign sent out a panicked sounding email to supporters asking for money.
They mention the Ukraine story and then said “even worse” news was that Elizabeth Warren was polling better than him.
Pretty telling.
I have absolutely no reason to believe that the party is looking for someone that is not old, white, Christian, straight and male. In fact, the opposite might be true! Although some people would prefer someone other than old, white, male, straight and Christian, it would be very hard to argue that those people comprise a majority of the party.
So far, three old candidates lead the pack. Neither of the black candidates are doing very well even though blacks comprise a relatively large percent of Democratic voters.
Religion would NOT be an issue – but if the candidate was neither Christian nor Jewish, then that candidate would actually have an uphill battle for the nomination. Same thing with being gay. Buttigieg has run a great campaign, but I suspect he would be doing even better if he was straight. And the fact that the women Democratic candidates together comprise less than 50% of the vote suggests that most Democrats aren’t necessarily looking for a woman either.
Democrats ARE looking for someone who shares their position on the issues and has the ability to win. Now if Biden does get the nomination, then it would be true that Democrats would be looking for someone other than an older white male for the VP.
Biden is the only candidate who is a combination of white and male and old and straight and Christian. So, basically just like Trump in that regard.
Then there are all the gaffes and also the decades long voting record that the base of the party dislikes.
Unrelated, would Buttigieg be doing better if he were straight?
I know he would have raised a lot less money.
Before all is said and done, I think Beto might try to claim to be bisexual or transgender.