Harry Enten takes a look beyond the media obsession with the two first small states in the Democratic nomination race.
His read out of numbers point to a race for the nomination pivoting for the Biden/Warren narrative back to actual 3 way race for the nomination with Joe Biden as the clear leader as he has been all along in the national polls…
Warren and Sanders should poll well in the small first two states that are unrepresentative of the demographics of the Democratic Party….
Biden being tied with Bernie Sanders and Warren trailing keeps Sanders in the race…
But the real issue for both is South Carolina….
As is to be expected and WILl most likely stay?
Joe Biden OWNS the black vote in South Carolina and the black vote is essential to capture the nomination….Therein lies Joe Biden’s advantage no matter what things look like right now…
- New state polls: CNN has released new polls conducted by SSRS from Nevada and South Carolina of the 2020 Democratic field.
- Joe Biden is the clear leader in South Carolina with 37% over Elizabeth Warren’s 16%. In Nevada, Biden is at 22%, Bernie Sanders at 22% and Warren at 18%, forming a top tier….
This is the problem for Warren….
Perhaps the biggest question of the Democratic primary race is whether Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren can extend her appeal beyond her white well-educated base. Specifically, can she earn the support of black voters, who are the base of the Democratic Party?
Our South Carolina poll suggests the Massachusetts senator has a lot of work to do. She gets only 4% of the black likely primary voters. That looks quite similar to the 2% Warren was earning amongst this group in previous polls by Fox News and Monmouth University.
For comparison, Warren’s at 28% among white voters in our South Carolina poll.
Black voters, of course, make up a majority or near a majority of Democratic primary voters in southern primaries such as Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina. Warren’s going to run into some major problems in southern primaries if she can’t do better with this bloc of voters.
Biden, for his part, wants to count on South Carolina as a firewall if he loses the states of Iowa and New Hampshire. I’m not sure he can do that, but so far his support from black voters is holding in South Carolina. He’s at 45% among them in this poll, which is about where he was in previous South Carolina polling….
image…businessinsider.com
I think the last poll in Nevada had Biden up by 17 points. Now he is tied, and your comment regarding the polling is that this is a problem for Warren?
Absolutely…..
Warren isn’t gonna win SC….
Sanders AND Biden are ahead of her in Nevada ….
As I post?
She’s doing fine in the small mostly no minority states…
But that is NOT what will count after the start….
There is NO doubt that Biden has lost support across the board…
But?
He’s STILL the guy to beat…
No ONE thought Biden would have a the nomination in a walk…
He’s gonna have to work for it….
Uh you said a few weeks ag that he would have it wrapped up by early March.
You still believe that?
Yup….
Nev, SC and Super Tuesday with Cali
OVER…..
Well if you believe that ,it sure seems to contradict your above statement,”No one thought Biden would have the nomination in a walk.”
Because if what you’re claiming above isn’t a”walk?”
I don’t know what is!
He’s been working against headwinds from the jump….
It he doesn’t ‘win’ Iowa and NH he’ll have even MORE angst …
But I’ve said from the beginning that he WOULD be the nominee…
And…
It WOULD be known by March 4 ‘s morning…
This IS stupid….
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s presidential campaign called on news executives to stop booking Donald Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani as a guest on news programs.
Two top Biden campaign advisers in a letter addressed the leaders of news and cable networks and some anchors, saying that Giuliani’s appearances on news networks are giving the lawyer and his “false, debunked conspiracy theories” undeserved credibility, The Daily Beast first reported. The letter has since been shared on social media.
“While you often fact check his statements in real time during your discussions, that is no longer enough,” the letter says. “By giving him your air time, you are allowing him to introduce increasingly unhinged, unfounded and desperate lies into the national conversation.”
The Biden advisers — Anita Dunn and Kate Bedingfield — argue that “Giuliani is not a public official, and holds no public office that would entitle him to opine on the nation’s airwaves.”….
More…
I like having Giuliani around.
Reminds thinking people what the Republican Party has become.
Rudy is actually hurting his client ….
THAT is a lousy lawyer….
I hear Trumpworld ain’t happy with him around…
Both him and Barr ARE in it now up to their necks…
Hell, yeah, he’s a lousy lawyer.
But what does that have to do with anything?
Just keeping it REAL…..
Nate Silver
@natesilver538
The two new primary polls out this afternoon don’t show any negative fallout for Biden in the D primary from the Ukraine story. The other poll (from HarrisX) actually has him gaining a couple of points, in fact.
The media has done an excellent job at debunking the story- so I would not expect any negative fallout. The story might even benefit Biden because it suggests that Trump was afraid of him.
Except among Republicans of course.
I would expect that polling will show a good 80% or more of them believe that Biden and his son are involved in some great “conspiracy.”
Perhaps – but only 1% of that 80% would vote for Biden anyway.
More likely, someone other than Biden will be the nominee.
This why Joe Biden IS gonna be the Democratic nominee people....
A new Winthrop University [ South Carolina] poll finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic field with 37%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 17%, Bernie Sanders at 8%, Kamala Harris at 7%, Pete Buttigieg at 4%, Tom Steyer at 2%, Andrew Yang at 2% and Beto O’Rourke at 2%.
Key finding: Biden has the support of 46% of African-American voters….
Politicalwire…
This is MORE bad news for Sanders who was in second place in SC…
The guy is is just losing support by the day….
By the time SC votes, he would likely need to get more than 37% to win. Many candidates will have dropped out. Is Biden the second choice of many voters?
If somebody else wins IA and NH and leads many other places, is the winner of SC, especially considering it being a “red state” going to be very relevant?