Harry Enten takes a look beyond the media obsession with the two first small states in the Democratic nomination race.
His read out of numbers point to a race for the nomination pivoting for the Biden/Warren narrative back to actual 3 way race for the nomination with Joe Biden as the clear leader as he has been all along in the national polls…
Warren and Sanders should poll well in the small first two states that are unrepresentative of the demographics of the Democratic Party….
Biden being tied with Bernie Sanders and Warren trailing keeps Sanders in the race…
But the real issue for both is South Carolina….
As is to be expected and WILl most likely stay?
Joe Biden OWNS the black vote in South Carolina and the black vote is essential to capture the nomination….Therein lies Joe Biden’s advantage no matter what things look like right now…
- New state polls: CNN has released new polls conducted by SSRS from Nevada and South Carolina of the 2020 Democratic field.
- Joe Biden is the clear leader in South Carolina with 37% over Elizabeth Warren’s 16%. In Nevada, Biden is at 22%, Bernie Sanders at 22% and Warren at 18%, forming a top tier….
This is the problem for Warren….
Perhaps the biggest question of the Democratic primary race is whether Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren can extend her appeal beyond her white well-educated base. Specifically, can she earn the support of black voters, who are the base of the Democratic Party?
Our South Carolina poll suggests the Massachusetts senator has a lot of work to do. She gets only 4% of the black likely primary voters. That looks quite similar to the 2% Warren was earning amongst this group in previous polls by Fox News and Monmouth University.
For comparison, Warren’s at 28% among white voters in our South Carolina poll.
Black voters, of course, make up a majority or near a majority of Democratic primary voters in southern primaries such as Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina. Warren’s going to run into some major problems in southern primaries if she can’t do better with this bloc of voters.
Biden, for his part, wants to count on South Carolina as a firewall if he loses the states of Iowa and New Hampshire. I’m not sure he can do that, but so far his support from black voters is holding in South Carolina. He’s at 45% among them in this poll, which is about where he was in previous South Carolina polling….