Where are those Nevada polls?
Number of state primary polls for the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, as of Aug. 8, 2019
| DATE | STATE | NUMBER OF POLLS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 3 | Iowa | 22 | |
| Feb. 11 | New Hampshire | 21 | |
| Feb. 22 | Nevada | 3 | |
| Feb. 29 | South Carolina | 17 | |
| Mar. 3 | California | 14 | |
| Texas | 9 | ||
| Massachusetts | 3 | ||
| Alabama | 2 | ||
| North Carolina | 2 | ||
| Virginia | 2 | ||
| Colorado | 1 | ||
| Maine | 1 | ||
| Minnesota | 1 | ||
| Tennessee | 1 | ||
| Later in March | Florida | 9 | |
| Michigan | 4 | ||
| Mississippi | 2 | ||
| Ohio | 2 | ||
| Arizona | 1 | ||
| Georgia | 1 | ||
| Illinois | 1 | ||
| Missouri | 1 | ||
| Washington | 1 | ||
| April | Pennsylvania | 5 | |
| Wisconsin | 3 | ||
| New York | 1 | ||
| May | Indiana | 1 | |
| Oregon | 1 | ||
However, the dearth of polls in Nevada isn’t anything new. The Silver State only became an early state in the 2008 nomination process, and it’s struggled since then to attract pollsters’ attention. In 2008, at the same point that we are at now — about six months before Iowa — just 3 percent of the state-level Democratic and GOP primary polls had come from Nevada. During the 2012 Republican primary, about 5 percent of state-level polls were from Nevada six months before Iowa. And by that point in 2016, only 3 percent of Democratic polls and 2 percent of GOP polls came from there. For comparison, the three polls conducted up to this point in the 2020 cycle equal just 2 percent of all state-level surveys.2
One reason for the lack of polls is that it’s hard to poll Nevada. The caucuses aren’t as embedded in the state’s political fabric as contests in other early states — Iowa’s caucuses have led since 1972, New Hampshire has held the first primary since 1920 and South Carolina’s “First in the South” primary dates back to 1980 on the Republican side. And considering caucuses have lower turnout than primaries, it’s challenging for pollsters to survey participants, too, especially given Nevada’s fairly transient population and the unusual hours many residents work because of the state’s hotel and gaming industries. All of this makes it difficult — and costly — for pollsters to survey Nevada caucus-goers.
Nevertheless, veteran Nevada political journalist Jon Ralston isn’t totally buying the claims that Nevada is too tough to survey more regularly. “I think ultimately it’s a cop-out by pollsters and by others,”….
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- North Carolina could be a key battleground state in the 2020 general election, and SurveyUSA has some early head-to-head numbers for Trump against different Democratic contenders. Trump performed worst against former Vice President Joe Biden, earning 41 percent support to Biden’s 49 percent. Trump also trailed Sen. Bernie Sanders by 4 points and Sen. Elizabeth Warren by 1 point, but he led Sen. Kamala Harris by 1 point and Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana, by 2 points….